蓬勃发展的创新：人类基因组计划
Exuberant innovation: The Human Genome Project
摘要：
我们提出了一个详细的综合发展的人类基因组计划（HGP）从1986年到2003年，以测试“社会泡沫”的假设，强烈的社会互动之间的热情支持者的HGP编织了一个网络，加强反馈，导致广泛的认可和非凡的承诺，那些参与该项目，超出了标准成本效益分析在存在非常不确定性和风险的情况下所能合理化的范围。最初的公共项目和几个私人倡议之间的激烈竞争和竞赛被认为是支持社会泡沫假说。我们还提出了定量分析的随之而来的金融泡沫集中在生物技术部门。目前的共识证实了这一假设，即通过一个缓慢而艰巨的过程来利用人类基因组计划的成果，旨在解开人类复杂身体的非凡复杂性。人类基因组计划还提出了其他一些倡议，其基础是认识到基因组学还有很多事情不能做，而“未来属于蛋白质组学”。我们提出的证据表明，公共部门和私营部门之间的竞争实际上有利于前者，因为后者的积极作用大大减少了其财政负担和视野（在很长一段时间内违背其意愿）。这表明，政府可以利用社会泡沫机制来促进私营部门的长期投资，否则这些投资将得不到支持。
英文摘要：
We present a detailed synthesis of the development of the Human Genome Project (HGP) from 1986 to 2003 in order to test the "social bubble" hypothesis that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters of the HGP weaved a network of reinforcing feedbacks that led to a widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment by those involved in the project, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost-benefit analysis in the presence of extraordinary uncertainties and risks. The vigorous competition and race between the initially public project and several private initiatives is argued to support the social bubble hypothesis. We also present quantitative analyses of the concomitant financial bubble concentrated on the biotech sector. Confirmation of this hypothesis is offered by the present consensus that it will take decades to exploit the fruits of the HGP, via a slow and arduous process aiming at disentangling the extraordinary complexity of the human complex body. The HGP has ushered other initiatives, based on the recognition that there is much that genomics cannot do, and that "the future belongs to proteomics". We present evidence that the competition between the public and private sector actually played in favor of the former, since its financial burden as well as its horizon was significantly reduced (for a long time against its will) by the active role of the later. This suggests that governments can take advantage of the social bubble mechanism to catalyze long-term investments by the private sector, which would not otherwise be supported.
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