决策：系统词典

Multi-agent decision-making dynamics inspired by honeybees

When choosing between candidate nest sites, a honeybee swarm reliably chooses the most valuable site and even when faced with the choice between near-equal value sites, it makes highly efficient decisions. Value-sensitive decision-making is enabled by a distributed social effort among the honeybees, and it leads to decision-making dynamics of the swarm that are remarkably robust to perturbation and adaptive to change. To explore and generalize these features to other networks, we design distributed multi-agent network dynamics that exhibit a pitchfork bifurcation, ubiquitous in biological mode…

A Realization Theory for Bio-inspired Collective Decision-Making

The collective decision-making exhibited by animal groups provides enormous inspiration for multi-agent control system design as it embodies several features that are desirable in engineered networks, including robustness and adaptability, low computational effort, and an intrinsically decentralized architecture. However, many of the mechanistic models for collective decision-making are described at the population-level abstraction and are challenging to implement in an engineered system. We develop simple and easy-to-implement models of opinion dynamics that realize the empirically observed c…

Using the WOWA criterion for two-stage decision making problems

The weighted OWA (WOWA) is a function that aggregates a set of values with weights assigned based on the rank and relative importance of each value. The weighted OWA of uncertain objective functions can generalize many of the criteria that is used in decision making under uncertainty. In this paper, we apply the WOWA criterion to two-stage decision making problems, and present decomposition algorithms to solve them. The algorithms are applied to location-transportation problem with uncertain demands and computational results are presented.

决策过程的任务发布控制

Task Release Control for Decision Making Queues

研究了决策排队系统中的最优持续时间分配问题。决策任务以给定的速率到达人类操作员。人类所做决策的正确性随着分配给任务的持续时间的S形函数而演变。队列中的每个任务都在不断地失去其价值。我们阐明这种权衡，并确定最佳的政策，为人类操作员。我们证明了最优策略需要人类放弃一些任务。我们提出了一种滚动时域优化策略，并将其与贪婪策略进行了比较。

A Framework for Fair Decision-making Over Time with Time-invariant Utilities

Fairness is a major concern in contemporary decision problems. In these situations, the objective is to maximize fairness while preserving the efficacy of the underlying decision-making problem. This paper examines repeated decisions on problems involving multiple stakeholders and a central decision maker. Repetition of the decision-making provides additional opportunities to promote fairness while increasing the complexity from symmetry to finding solutions. This paper presents a general mathematical programming framework for the proposed fairness-over-time (FOT) decision-making problem. The …

Shannon's comparison of channels characterized by optimal decision making

According to Blackwell's Theorem it is equivalent to compare channels by either a garbling order or optimal decision making. This equivalence does not hold anymore if also allowing pre-garbling, i. e. for the so-called Shannon-order (see Rauh et al., 2017). We show that the equivalence Fails in general even if the set of decision makers is reduced. This is overcome by the introduction of convexified Shannon-usefulness as a preference relation of decision makers over channels. We prove that convexified Shannon-order and convexified Shannon-usefulness are equivalent.

Making Decisions under Model Misspecification

We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate "models as approximations." We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call "structured models" that have explicit substantive motivations. The decision maker confronts uncertainty through the lens of these models, but also views these models as simplifications, and hence, as misspecified. We extend the max-min analysis under model ambiguity to incorporate the uncertainty induced by acknowledging that the models used in decision-making are simplified approximations. Formally, we provide a…

数字孪生中的决策：优化、控制与学习

Decision-Making in Digital Twins: Optimization, Control, and Learning

本文综述数字孪生驱动的决策方法进展，聚焦仿真优化、序列决策、风险感知决策三领域，探讨相关技术并指出研究挑战与机遇。

热力学作为有信息处理费用的决策理论

Thermodynamics as a theory of decision-making with information processing costs

完全理性的决策者会最大化预期效用，但在决定最佳行动时，却忽略了资源成本。在这里，我们提出了一个信息理论的形式化有限理性决策，决策者权衡预期效用和信息处理成本。这种有限理性的决策者可以被认为是热力学机器，当他们计算时，会经历物理状态的变化。他们的行为是由自由能功能，权衡内部能源的变化-作为效用的代理-和熵的变化，代表由变化的状态引起的计算成本。因此，有限理性决策问题可以用统计物理学中的著名概念来重新表述。在忽略计算成本的极限下，最大期望效用原理得以恢复。我们讨论的关系，以满足决策程序，以及现有的理论框架和人类决策实验，描述偏离预期效用理论的链接。由于大多数的数学机器可以借用统计物理学，主要的贡献是公理推导和解释的热力学自由能作为一个有限的理性决策的模型。

线性目标函数softmax决策模型的参数估计

Parameter estimation in softmax decision-making models with linear objective functions

着眼于以人为中心的自动化，我们有助于开发一种系统的手段，从行为数据中推断人类决策的特征。基于softmax选择在人类决策模型中的广泛应用，研究了线性目标函数softmax决策模型的极大似然参数估计问题.我们目前的条件下，似然函数是凸的。这些使我们能够提供充分条件收敛的最大似然估计，并构建其渐近分布。在具有非线性目标函数的模型的情况下，我们展示了如何通过对标称参数值进行线性化来应用估计量。我们应用估计器来拟合人类决策的随机UCL（可信上限）模型。我们在相关但不同的任务中表现出统计学上的显著差异。

离散路径/轨迹决策制定问题

Discrete Route/Trajectory Decision Making Problems

本文研究了复合多阶段决策问题，旨在设计从初始决策状态到目标决策状态的路径或轨迹。通过汽车路线问题作为基本物理隐喻，探讨了离散操作/状态设计空间（如有向图）中的多种决策问题，并在教育、医学和经济等领域应用。

理想网络中的集体决策：速度与准确性权衡

Collective Decision-Making in Ideal Networks: The Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff

本文研究人类群体在具有网络交互的模型中进行两种选择任务的集体决策，探讨个体在速度与准确性之间的权衡，通过耦合漂移扩散模型分析证据聚合过程，并探讨网络位置对决策性能的影响。

双模糊概率区间语言术语集及基于马尔可夫过程的动态模糊决策模型在多准则群体决策中的应用

Double Fuzzy Probabilistic Interval Linguistic Term Set and a Dynamic Fuzzy Decision Making Model based on Markov Process with tts Application in Multiple Criteria Group Decision Making

针对概率语言术语缺陷及动态属性权重确定难问题，提出双模糊概率区间语言术语集概念，定义相关内容，开发模糊语言马尔可夫矩阵等，给出权重确定方法，并用金融风险投资案例说明其在多准则决策中的应用。

在不确定性下风险敏感决策的决策制定

On Risk-Sensitive Decision Making Under Uncertainty

本文提出在不确定性下风险敏感决策的最优性条件，并通过最佳投注和库存管理示例验证了理论。