ENSO可变性的延迟微分模型，第2部分：锁相、多解和极值动力学
A delay differential model of ENSO variability, Part 2: Phase locking, multiple solutions, and dynamics of extrema
摘要：
我们考虑了一个高度理想化的模式厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）的变化，介绍了在早期的文件。该模型由热带太平洋海表温度的延迟微分方程控制，它结合了参与ENSO动力学的两个关键机制：延迟负反馈和季节强迫。我们进行了理论和数值研究的模型在三维空间中的物理相关参数：传播周期的海洋波在热带太平洋，大气-海洋耦合，和强度的季节性强迫。锁相模式的解决方案的周期性强迫是普遍的：当地的最大值和最小值的解决方案往往发生在同一位置内的季节性周期。这种相位锁定是观测到的厄尔尼诺（暖）和拉尼娜（冷）事件的一个关键特征。当强迫较弱时，季节周期内极值的相位敏感地依赖于模型参数。我们还研究了固定模型参数的多个解的共存性，并描述了稳定解在一维恒定初始模型历史空间中的吸引域。
英文摘要：
We consider a highly idealized model for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, as introduced in an earlier paper. The model is governed by a delay differential equation for sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific, and it combines two key mechanisms that participate in ENSO dynamics: delayed negative feedback and seasonal forcing. We perform a theoretical and numerical study of the model in the three-dimensional space of its physically relevant parameters: propagation period of oceanic waves across the Tropical Pacific, atmosphere-ocean coupling, and strength of seasonal forcing. Phase locking of model solutions to the periodic forcing is prevalent: the local maxima and minima of the solutions tend to occur at the same position within the seasonal cycle. Such phase locking is a key feature of the observed El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. The phasing of the extrema within the seasonal cycle depends sensitively on model parameters when forcing is weak. We also study co-existence of multiple solutions for fixed model parameters and describe the basins of attraction of the stable solutions in a one-dimensional space of constant initial model histories.
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