是真的，还是随机的？：金融图灵测试
Is It Real, or Is It Randomized?: A Financial Turing Test
摘要：
我们构建了一个金融“图灵测试”，以确定人类受试者是否可以区分实际与随机的财务回报。该实验包括一个在线视频游戏（arora.ccs.neu.edu），玩家被要求区分实际的金融市场回报和这些回报的随机时间排列。我们发现了压倒性的统计证据（p值不大于0.5%），表明受试者可以始终如一地区分这两种类型的时间序列，从而驳斥了金融市场“看起来随机”的普遍看法。“实验的一个关键特点是，受试者会立即得到关于他们选择的有效性的反馈，让他们学习和适应。我们认为，这种新颖的界面可以利用人类的能力来处理和提取金融数据中的信息，而计算机则无法做到。
英文摘要：
We construct a financial "Turing test" to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game (http://arora.ccs.neu.edu) where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permutations of those returns. We find overwhelming statistical evidence (p-values no greater than 0.5%) that subjects can consistently distinguish between the two types of time series, thereby refuting the widespread belief that financial markets "look random." A key feature of the experiment is that subjects are given immediate feedback regarding the validity of their choices, allowing them to learn and adapt. We suggest that such novel interfaces can harness human capabilities to process and extract information from financial data in ways that computers cannot.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
