银河系间断平衡：如何破坏卡特的天体生物学人择论证
Galactic Punctuated Equilibrium: How to Undermine Carter's Anthropic Argument in Astrobiology
摘要：
我们调查了一种新的策略，它可以击败（在）著名的卡特的“人”的论点对地外生命和智慧。与威尔逊、利维奥和其他人已经考虑过的那些方法相反，本方法基于放松隐藏的均变论假设，而是考虑由全球（银河系范围）和局部（行星或行星系限制）调节机制支配的演化机制的动态连续。这与天体物理学和进化生物学的最新发展是一致的。值得注意的是，我们对超新星和伽马射线暴的性质以及太阳系和银河系之间的强耦合的理解，以及埃尔德雷奇和古尔德的“间断平衡”理论和雅布隆斯基、瓦伦丁等人的“宏观进化机制”理论，都与调节机制图景完全一致。这种特殊策略的应用突出了卡特论证的应用局限性，并表明在现实宇宙中其适用性条件并不满足。我们的结论是，根据这一论点对地外智慧的稀缺性和我们探测它的努力的前景得出深远的结论是没有道理的。
英文摘要：
We investigate a new strategy which can defeat the (in)famous Carter's "anthropic" argument against extraterrestrial life and intelligence. In contrast to those already considered by Wilson, Livio, and others, the present approach is based on relaxing hidden uniformitarian assumptions, considering instead a dynamical succession of evolutionary regimes governed by both global (Galaxy-wide) and local (planet- or planetary system-limited) regulation mechanisms. This is in accordance with recent developments in both astrophysics and evolutionary biology. Notably, our increased understanding of the nature of supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, as well as of strong coupling between the Solar System and the Galaxy on one hand, and the theories of "punctuated equilibria" of Eldredge and Gould and "macroevolutionary regimes" of Jablonski, Valentine, et al. on the other, are in full accordance with the regulation- mechanism picture. The application of this particular strategy highlights the limits of application of Carter's argument, and indicates that in the real universe its applicability conditions are not satisfied. We conclude that drawing far-reaching conclusions about the scarcity of extraterrestrial intelligence and the prospects of our efforts to detect it on the basis of this argument is unwarranted.
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