设计推进创新的生存战略
Designing Survival Strategies for Propulsion Innovations
摘要：
在高度工业化的社会中，流动性是非常重要的。推进技术的根本变革对所有行为者来说都是显而易见的，无论他们来自工业、政治还是公众。本文分析了汽车产业创新压力与传统拉力之间的张力。这种紧张关系目前在替代推进和燃料技术方面造成僵局。我们通过对当前和未来的渐进式和激进式创新进行分类来描绘这种情况。基于对德国工程和制造业的深入实地观察，我们以推进创新和燃料创新组成的二维矩阵的形式呈现了创新景观。我们使用超选择的数学模型来开发一个从当前锁定到传统内燃机技术的逃生策略的基本原理。这些模型的启发式指导的基础上，我们讨论了几个经验的情况下，巴士作为市场的先驱，替代推进车辆。本文中使用的模型和基本经验材料都不是新的。相反，我们表明，使用数学模型作为一种基础上，经验观察和理论论证可以订购导致新的和部分意想不到的见解的社会经济创新的性质。我们采用这种方法的情况下，新的驾驶技术，并认为有一个“第三认识功能”的模型之间的数据驱动，准确验证模型的一个极端和隐喻使用模型在思想实验在其他的连续。这就是我们所说的整体描述。
英文摘要：
Mobility is valued greatly in the highly industrialized societies. The need for radical change in propulsion technologies is obvious to all actors, irrespective of whether they originate from industry, politics or the general public. This paper analyses the tension between innovation pressure and pull of convention in the automobile industries. This tension is currently giving rise to a situation of stalemate in relation to alternative propulsion and fuel technologies. We map the situation by means of a taxonomy of current and future incremental and radical innovations. Based on in-depth field observation of engineering and manufacturing in Germany, we present an innovation landscape in the form of a two-dimensional matrix composed of propulsion innovations and fuel innovations. We use mathematical models of hyperselection to develop a rationale for escape strategies from the current lock-in into conventional combustion-engine technology. Based on the heuristic guidance of these models, we discuss several empirical cases in which buses act as pioneers in markets for alternative propulsion vehicles. Neither the model nor the basic empirical material used in this paper are new. Instead, we show that using mathematical models as a kind of substratum on which empirical observations and theoretical arguments can be ordered leads to new and partly unexpected insights into the nature of socioeconomic innovations. We apply this approach to the case of new driving technologies and argue that there is a 'third epistemic function' of models in the continuum between data driven, exactly validated models at the one extreme and a metaphoric use of models in thought experiments at the other. This is what we call a holistic description.
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