节俭的美德-为什么宇宙观测者应该慢慢发布他们的数据
The Virtues of Frugality - Why cosmological observers should release their data slowly
摘要：
宇宙学家很快将处于一个独特的位置。在越来越多的观测中，观测噪声将逐渐被宇宙方差所取代，成为不确定性的主要来源。我们反映了新模型的发现和验证的后果。如果完整数据集中有需要新模型的特征，则不会有后续观测来测试该模型的预测。我们通过讨论在暗能量模型和暴胀理论的背景下通过事先调整发现模型的陷阱来给出这个问题的具体例子。我们展示了数据的逐步发布如何减轻这种困难，允许识别异常，并提出和测试新模型。我们提倡观测者计划从未来宇宙方差有限的观测中节俭地发布数据。
英文摘要：
Cosmologists will soon be in a unique position. Observational noise will gradually be replaced by cosmic variance as the dominant source of uncertainty in an increasing number of observations. We reflect on the ramifications for the discovery and verification of new models. If there are features in the full data set that call for a new model, there will be no subsequent observations to test that model's predictions. We give specific examples of the problem by discussing the pitfalls of model discovery by prior adjustment in the context of dark energy models and inflationary theories. We show how the gradual release of data can mitigate this difficulty, allowing anomalies to be identified, and new models to be proposed and tested. We advocate that observers plan for the frugal release of data from future cosmic variance limited observations.
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