CMIP3集合传播、模式相似性和气候预报不确定性
CMIP3 ensemble spread, model similarity, and climate prediction uncertainty
摘要：
CMIP3多模式集合传播很可能低估了未来气候预测中的真实模式不确定性，因为集合中的模式具有相似性和共同的缺陷。为了产生适当水平的不确定性，需要扩大利差。我们得出的数学模型输出和必要的通货膨胀的蔓延之间的假设水平的相关性之间的连接，并说明了连接，使温度预测为英国21世纪使用四种不同的相关性方案。
英文摘要：
The CMIP3 multi-model ensemble spread most likely underestimates the real model uncertainty in future climate predictions because of the similarity, and shared defects, of the models in the ensemble. To generate an appropriate level of uncertainty, the spread needs inflating. We derive the mathematical connection between an assumed level of correlation between the model output and the necessary inflation of the spread, and illustrate the connection by making temperature predictions for the UK for the 21st century using four different correlation scenarios.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
