对J.D.“南方涛动对对流层温度的影响”一文的评论McLean，C. R. de Freitas和R. M.卡特
Comment on "Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature" by J. D. McLean, C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter
摘要：
我们证明了厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）和全球温度变化之间的替代相关性，McLean等人。[2009]。我们发现50%的RATPAC-A对流层温度的变化（和54%的HadCRUT 3）解释了一个新的累积南方涛动指数（cSOI）在一个简单的线性回归。我们回顾了物理和统计研究的证据，以支持ENSO效应的积累可以产生自然的数十年变暖趋势的假设。虽然由于共线性的原因，不可能从多元回归模型中可靠地确定人为强迫和SOI积累的相对贡献，但这些分析表明，$4.8\pm1.5%$和高达$9\pm2%$的累积比cSOI/SOI足以使ENSO在1960年以来的全球平均温度趋势中发挥很大作用。
英文摘要：
We demonstrate an alternative correlation between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global temperature variation to that shown by McLean et al. [2009]. We show 50% of the variation in RATPAC-A tropospheric temperature (and 54% of HadCRUT3) is explained by a novel cumulative Southern Oscillation Index (cSOI) term in a simple linear regression. We review evidence from physical and statistical research in support of the hypothesis that accumulation of the effects of ENSO can produce natural multi-decadal warming trends. Although it is not possible to reliably determine the relative contribution of anthropogenic forcing and SOI accumulation from multiple regression models due to collinearity, these analyses suggest that an accumulation ratio cSOI/SOI of $4.8\pm1.5%$ and up to $9\pm2%$ is sufficient for ENSO to play a large part in the global mean temperature trend since 1960.
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