存在迁移的不对称性稳定了多菌株疾病的爆发
Asymmetry in the presence of migration stabilizes multistrain disease outbreaks
摘要：
我们研究了耦合人口之间的迁移，或补丁，多株疾病动力学的稳定性。在这项工作中使用的流行病模型显示了一个Hopf分支的振荡在一个单一的混合人口。数值结果表明，两个不相同的补丁之间的迁移稳定的地方病稳定状态，延迟发病的大幅度爆发，减少感染的总数。这一结果的动机是通过分析具有不同频率的一般Hopf分岔和它们之间的扩散耦合。再次看到稳定的稳定状态，表明我们在完整的多应变模型的观察是基于定性特征的动态，而不是疾病模型的细节。
英文摘要：
We study the effect of migration between coupled populations, or patches, on the stability properties of multistrain disease dynamics. The epidemic model used in this work displays a Hopf bifurcation to oscillations in a single well mixed population. It is shown numerically that migration between two non-identical patches stabilizes the endemic steady state, delaying the onset of large amplitude outbreaks and reducing the total number of infections. This result is motivated by analyzing generic Hopf bifurcations with different frequencies and with diffusive coupling between them. Stabilization of the steady state is again seen, indicating that our observation in the full multistrain model is based on qualitative characteristics of the dynamics rather than on details of the disease model.
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