双向交通模型中交通事故的仿真研究
Simulation study of traffic accidents in bidirectional traffic models
摘要：
基于Simon-Gutowitz双向交通模型，建立了双向碰撞发生的条件。在这个模型中可能发生三种类型的危险情况。分析了汽车迎面碰撞、追尾碰撞和变道碰撞时的碰撞特征。使用蒙特卡罗模拟，我们计算这些碰撞的发生概率为不同值的迎面而来的汽车密度。研究发现，当一条车道上的车辆密度较小时，另一条车道上的车辆密度足够高时，碰撞风险是重要的。还研究了重型车辆不同比例的影响。我们发现，重型车辆会导致回家车道上的交通流量的重要减少，并引发车祸的风险增加。
英文摘要：
Conditions for the occurrence of bidirectional collisions are developed based on the Simon-Gutowitz bidirectional traffic model. Three types of dangerous situations can occur in this model. We analyze those corresponding to head-on collision, rear-end collision and lane-changing collision. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute the probability of the occurrence of these collisions for different values of the oncoming cars density. It is found that the risk of collisions is important when the density of cars in one lane is small and that of the other lane is high enough. The influence of different proportions of heavy vehicles is also studied. We found that heavy vehicles cause an important reduction of traffic flow on the home lane and provoke an increase of the risk of car accident.
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