Adaptive tests of homogeneity for a Poisson process

Minimax and adaptive tests for detecting abrupt and possibly transitory changes in a Poisson process

Motivated by applications in cybersecurity and epidemiology, we consider the problem of detecting an abrupt change in the intensity of a Poisson process, characterised by a jump (non transitory change) or a bump (transitory change) from constant. We propose a complete study from the nonasymptotic minimax testing point of view, when the constant baseline intensity is known or unknown. The question of minimax adaptation with respect to each parameter (height, location, length) of the change is tackled, leading to a comprehensive overview of the various minimax separation rate regimes. We exhibit…

Adaptive Lasso and group-Lasso for functional Poisson regression

High dimensional Poisson regression has become a standard framework for the analysis of massive counts datasets. In this work we estimate the intensity function of the Poisson regression model by using a dictionary approach, which generalizes the classical basis approach, combined with a Lasso or a group-Lasso procedure. Selection depends on penalty weights that need to be calibrated. Standard methodologies developed in the Gaussian framework can not be directly applied to Poisson models due to heteroscedasticity. Here we provide data-driven weights for the Lasso and the group-Lasso derived fr…

Adaptive nonparametric estimation for compound Poisson processes robust to the discrete-observation scheme

A compound Poisson process whose jump measure and intensity are unknown is observed at finitely many equispaced times. We construct a purely data-driven estimator of the Lévy density $ν$ through the spectral approach using general Calderon--Zygmund integral operators, which include convolution and projection kernels. Assuming minimal tail assumptions, it is shown to estimate $ν$ at the minimax rate of estimation over Besov balls under the losses $L^p(\mathbb{R})$, $p\in[1,\infty]$, and robustly to the observation regime (high- and low-frequency). To achieve adaptation in a minimax sense, we us…

小噪声渐近下带跳随机微分方程的自适应贝叶斯估计量

Adaptive Bayes estimator for stochastic differential equations with jumps under small noise asymptotics

本文针对带跳随机微分方程，在参数未知且仅含离散观测的条件下提出自适应贝叶斯估计量，并在小噪声渐近框架下证明其一致性与渐近正态性。

Adaptive thresholding estimation of a Poisson intensity with infinite support

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intensity of a Poisson process $N$ by using thresholding rules. In this paper, the intensity, defined as the derivative of the mean measure of $N$ with respect to $ndx$ where $n$ is a fixed parameter, is assumed to be non-compactly supported. The estimator $\tilde{f}_{n,γ}$ based on random thresholds is proved to achieve the same performance as the oracle estimator up to a logarithmic term. Oracle inequalities allow to derive the maxiset of $\tilde{f}_{n,γ}$. Then, minimax properties of $\tilde{f}_{n,γ}$ are established. We first prove that the rate…

Nonparametric Poisson regression from independent and weakly dependent observations by model selection

We consider the non-parametric Poisson regression problem where the integer valued response $Y$ is the realization of a Poisson random variable with parameter $λ(X)$. The aim is to estimate the functional parameter $λ$ from independent or weakly dependent observations $(X_1,Y_1),\ldots,(X_n,Y_n)$ in a random design framework. First we determine upper risk bounds for projection estimators on finite dimensional subspaces under mild conditions. In the case of Sobolev ellipsoids the obtained rates of convergence turn out to be optimal. The main part of the paper is devoted to the construction of a…

Intensity estimation of non-homogeneous Poisson processes from shifted trajectories

This paper considers the problem of adaptive estimation of a non-homogeneous intensity function from the observation of n independent Poisson processes having a common intensity that is randomly shifted for each observed trajectory. We show that estimating this intensity is a deconvolution problem for which the density of the random shifts plays the role of the convolution operator. In an asymptotic setting where the number n of observed trajectories tends to infinity, we derive upper and lower bounds for the minimax quadratic risk over Besov balls. Non-linear thresholding in a Meyer wavelet b…

A Global Homogeneity Test for High-Dimensional Linear Regression

This paper is motivated by the comparison of genetic networks based on microarray samples. The aim is to test whether the differences observed between two inferred Gaussian graphical models come from real differences or arise from estimation uncertainties. Adopting a neighborhood approach, we consider a two-sample linear regression model with random design and propose a procedure to test whether these two regressions are the same. Relying on multiple testing and variable selection strategies, we develop a testing procedure that applies to high-dimensional settings where the number of covariate…

Nonparametric intensity estimation from noisy observations of a Poisson process under unknown error distribution

We consider the nonparametric estimation of the intensity function of a Poisson point process in a circular model from indirect observations $N_1,\ldots,N_n$. These observations emerge from hidden point process realizations with the target intensity through contamination with additive error. In case that the error distribution can only be estimated from an additional sample $Y_1,\ldots,Y_m$ we derive minimax rates of convergence with respect to the sample sizes $n$ and $m$ under abstract smoothness conditions and propose an orthonormal series estimator which attains the optimal rate of converg…

An adaptive procedure for Fourier estimators: illustration to deconvolution and decompounding

We introduce a new procedure to select the optimal cutoff parameter for Fourier density estimators that leads to adaptive rate optimal estimators, up to a logarithmic factor. This adaptive procedure applies for different inverse problems. We illustrate it on two classical examples: deconvolution and decompounding, i.e. non-parametric estimation of the jump density of a compound Poisson process from the observation of n increments of length $Δ$ > 0. For this latter example, we first build an estimator for which we provide an upper bound for its L 2-risk that is valid simultaneously for sampling…

Adaptive Poisson disorder problem

We study the quickest detection problem of a sudden change in the arrival rate of a Poisson process from a known value to an unknown and unobservable value at an unknown and unobservable disorder time. Our objective is to design an alarm time which is adapted to the history of the arrival process and detects the disorder time as soon as possible. In previous solvable versions of the Poisson disorder problem, the arrival rate after the disorder has been assumed a known constant. In reality, however, we may at most have some prior information about the likely values of the new arrival rate befor…