传染病繁殖数的早期实时估计
Early Real-time Estimation of Infectious Disease Reproduction Number
摘要：
当一种传染病袭击一个群体时，新报告的病例数往往是人们在疫情爆发的早期阶段能够获得的唯一可用信息。早期暴发分析的一个重要目标是从现有的有限信息中获得基本繁殖数$R_{0}$的可靠估计。我们提出了一种新的方法，使我们能够在一个更早的阶段相比，其他可用的方法，使一个可靠的实时估计的繁殖数量。我们的方法考虑到疾病的传染期分布广泛，接触网络的度分布是异质的可能性。我们验证我们的分析框架与数值模拟。
英文摘要：
When an infectious disease strikes a population, the number of newly reported cases is often the only available information that one can obtain during early stages of the outbreak. An important goal of early outbreak analysis is to obtain a reliable estimate for the basic reproduction number, $R_{0}$, from the limited information available. We present a novel method that enables us to make a reliable real-time estimate of the reproduction number at a much earlier stage compared to other available methods. Our method takes into account the possibility that a disease has a wide distribution of infectious period and that the degree distribution of the contact network is heterogeneous. We validate our analytical framework with numerical simulations.
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