细胞、癌症和罕见事件：皮肤细胞增殖的随机非线性动力学模型中的稳态亚稳定性
Cells, cancer, and rare events: homeostatic metastability in stochastic non-linear dynamics models of skin cell proliferation
摘要：
最近提出的用于皮肤细胞增殖的单祖细胞模型[Clayton等人，Nature v446，185（2007）]扩展为将稳态作为动力学的固定点。在这种模型中无限的细胞增殖可以被视为癌症发病的范例。一种新的方式，其中可能出现的是，如果稳态固定点成为亚稳态，使细胞群体可以逃脱的吸引力的大，但罕见的随机波动的稳态盆地。这样的事件可以被视为多阶段致癌模型的最后一步。这为戒烟者肺癌的特殊流行病学提供了一个可能的解释。
英文摘要：
A recently proposed single progenitor cell model for skin cell proliferation [Clayton et al., Nature v446, 185 (2007)] is extended to incorporate homeostasis as a fixed point of the dynamics. Unlimited cell proliferation in such a model can be viewed as a paradigm for the onset of cancer. A novel way in which this can arise is if the homeostatic fixed point becomes metastable, so that the cell populations can escape from the homeostatic basin of attraction by a large but rare stochastic fluctuation. Such an event can be viewed as the final step in a multi-stage model of carcinogenesis. This offers a possible explanation for the peculiar epidemiology of lung cancer in ex-smokers.
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