We consider the problem of testing hypotheses on the copula density from $n$ bi-dimensional observations. We wish to test the null hypothesis characterized by a parametric class against a composite nonparametric alternative. Each density under the alternative is separated in the $L_2$-norm from any density lying in the null hypothesis. The copula densities under consideration are supposed to belong to a range of Besov balls. According to the minimax approach, the testing problem is solved in an adaptive framework: it leads to a $\log\log$ term loss in the minimax rate of testing in comparison with the non-adaptive case. A smoothness-free test statistic that achieves the minimax rate is proposed. The lower bound is also proved. Besides, the empirical performance of the test procedure is demonstrated with both simulated and real data.
Let $(X_1,Y_1),\ldots,(X_n,Y_n)$ be an i.i.d. sample from a bivariate distribution function that lies in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. The asymptotic joint distribution of the standardized component-wise maxima $\bigvee_{i=1}^nX_i$ and $\bigvee_{i=1}^nY_i$ is then characterized by the marginal extreme value indices and the tail copula $R$. We propose a procedure for constructing asymptotically distribution-free goodness-of-fit tests for the tail copula $R$. The procedure is based on a transformation of a suitable empirical process derived from a semi-parametric…
In this paper we study nonparametric estimators of copulas and copula densities. We first focus our study on a density copula estimator based on a polynomial orthogonal projection of the joint density. A new copula estimator is then deduced. Its asymptotic properties are studied: we provide a large functional class for which this construction is optimal in the minimax and maxiset sense and we propose a method selection for the smoothing parameter. An intensive simulation study shows the very good performance of both copulas and copula densities estimators which we compare to a large panel of c…
Testing for a δ-neighborhood of a generalized Pareto copula
一个多元分布函数F在一个极值分布的最大吸引区域中当且仅当这对于对应于F的Copula和它的单变量边缘是真的。Aulbach et al.（2012 a）证明了一个copula满足极值条件当且仅当它尾等价于广义Pareto copula（GPC）。本文提出了一种任意维的卡方拟合优度检验方法，用于检验copula是否在广义预测控制的某个邻域内。该检验也可以应用于随机过程，检验相应的Copula过程是否接近广义Pareto过程。由于所提出的检验的p值对适当选择某个阈值高度敏感，因此我们还提供了一个图形工具，可以更轻松地做出是否拒绝假设的决定。
In this paper we study $L_p$-norm spherical copulas for arbitrary $p \in [1,\infty]$ and arbitrary dimensions. The study is motivated by a conjecture that these distributions lead to a sharp bound for the value of a certain generalized mean difference. We fully characterize conditions for existence and uniqueness of $L_p$-norm spherical copulas. Explicit formulas for their densities and correlation coefficients are derived and the distribution of the radial part is determined. Moreover, statistical inference and efficient simulation are considered.
Bivariate Frank Copula: Some More Results on Point Estimation of the Association Parameter from a Bayesian Perspective and Revisiting the Goodness of Fit Tests with an Application to Model Groundwater Data from Dong Thap, Vietnam
Faculty of Applied Science, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT)（胡志明市理工大学应用科学学院）；Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City（越南国家大学胡志明市分校）；Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics, Ton Duc Thang University（Ton Duc Thang大学数学与统计学院）
A Copula density estimation method that is based on a finite mixture of heterogeneous parametric copula densities is proposed here. More specifically, the mixture components are Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, T, and normal copula densities, which are capable of capturing lower tail,strong central, upper tail, heavy tail, and symmetrical elliptical dependence, respectively. The model parameters are estimated by an interior-point algorithm for the constrained maximum likelihood problem. The interior-point algorithm is compared with the commonly used EM algorithm. Simulation and real data application sh…
Consider a random sample from a continuous multivariate distribution function $F$ with copula $C$. In order to test the null hypothesis that $C$ belongs to a certain parametric family, we construct an empirical process on the unit hypercube that converges weakly to a standard Wiener process under the null hypothesis. This process can therefore serve as a `tests generator' for asymptotically distribution-free goodness-of-fit testing of copula families. We also prove maximal sensitivity of this process to contiguous alternatives. Finally, we demonstrate through a Monte Carlo simulation study tha…
The empirical copula process plays a central role in the asymptotic analysis of many statistical procedures which are based on copulas or ranks. Among other applications, results regarding its weak convergence can be used to develop asymptotic theory for estimators of dependence measures or copula densities, they allow to derive tests for stochastic independence or specific copula structures, or they may serve as a fundamental tool for the analysis of multivariate rank statistics. In the present paper, we establish weak convergence of the empirical copula process (for observations that are all…
We describe the R package kdecopula (current version 0.9.0), which provides fast implementations of various kernel estimators for the copula density. Due to a variety of available plotting options it is particularly useful for the exploratory analysis of dependence structures. It can be further used for accurate nonparametric estimation of copula densities and resampling. The implementation features spline interpolation of the estimates to allow for fast evaluation of density estimates and integrals thereof. We utilize this for a fast renormalization scheme that ensures that estimates are bona…
Research on structure determination and parameter estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas (HACs) has so far mostly focused on the case in which all appearing Archimedean copulas belong to the same Archimedean family. The present work addresses this issue and proposes a new approach for estimating HACs that involve different Archimedean families. It is based on employing goodness-of-fit test statistics directly into HAC estimation. The approach is summarized in a simple algorithm, its theoretical justification is given and its applicability is illustrated by several experiments, which in…
We consider the goodness-of fit testing problem for Hölder smooth densities over $\mathbb{R}^d$: given $n$ iid observations with unknown density $p$ and given a known density $p_0$, we investigate how large $ρ$ should be to distinguish, with high probability, the case $p=p_0$ from the composite alternative of all Hölder-smooth densities $p$ such that $\|p-p_0\|_t \geq ρ$ where $t \in [1,2]$. The densities are assumed to be defined over $\mathbb{R}^d$ and to have Hölder smoothness parameter $α>0$. In the present work, we solve the case $α\leq 1$ and handle the case $α>1$ using an additional tec…
In this paper, we present an alternative method for the spectral analysis of a univariate, strictly stationary time series $\{Y_t\}_{t\in \mathbb {Z}}$. We define a "new" spectrum as the Fourier transform of the differences between copulas of the pairs $(Y_t,Y_{t-k})$ and the independence copula. This object is called a copula spectral density kernel and allows to separate the marginal and serial aspects of a time series. We show that this spectrum is closely related to the concept of quantile regression. Like quantile regression, which provides much more information about conditional distribu…
Finding anonymization mechanisms to protect personal data is at the heart of recent machine learning research. Here, we consider the consequences of local differential privacy constraints on goodness-of-fit testing, i.e. the statistical problem assessing whether sample points are generated from a fixed density $f_0$, or not. The observations are kept hidden and replaced by a stochastic transformation satisfying the local differential privacy constraint. In this setting, we propose a testing procedure which is based on an estimation of the quadratic distance between the density $f$ of the unobs…
Bi-factor and second-order models based on copulas are proposed for item response data, where the items can be split into non-overlapping groups such that there is a homogeneous dependence within each group. Our general models include the Gaussian bi-factor and second-order models as special cases and can lead to more probability in the joint upper or lower tail compared with the Gaussian bi-factor and second-order models. Details on maximum likelihood estimation of parameters for the bi-factor and second-order copula models are given, as well as model selection and goodness-of-fit techniques.…
The estimation of travel time distribution (TTD) is critical for reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for advanced traffic management and control. The state-of-the art procedure for estimating arterial TTD commonly assumes that the path travel time follows a certain distribution without considering segment correlation. However, this approach is usually unrealistic as travel times on successive segments may be dependent. In this study, copula functions are used to model arterial TTD as copulas are able to incorporate for segment correlation. First, segmen…
In the last decade, simplified vine copula models have been an active area of research. They build a high dimensional probability density from the product of marginals densities and bivariate copula densities. Besides parametric models, several approaches to nonparametric estimation of vine copulas have been proposed. In this article, we extend these approaches and compare them in an extensive simulation study and a real data application. We identify several factors driving the relative performance of the estimators. The most important one is the strength of dependence. No method was found to …
Copula modeling has gained much attention in many fields recently with the advantage of separating dependence structure from marginal distributions. In real data, however, serious ties are often present in one or multiple margins, which cause problems to many rank-based statistical methods developed under the assumption of continuous data with no ties. Simple methods such as breaking the ties at random or using average rank introduce independence into the data and, hence, lead to biased estimation. We propose an estimation method that treats the ranks of tied data as being interval censored an…
Copula-Stein Discrepancy: A Generator-Based Stein Operator for Archimedean Dependence
Department of Mathematics, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, Louisiana, USA（路易斯安那州拉法叶大学数学系）；Department of Statistics, formerly of Presidency College, Kolkata, India（加德满都大学统计系）
Copula Based Fusion of Clinical and Genomic Machine Learning Risk Scores for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification
Department of Mathematics, University of Louisiana at Lafayette（路易斯安那州立大学拉斐特分校数学系）；Department of Physical Sciences & Mathematics, West Liberty University（韦斯特里布利大学物理科学与数学系）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University（明尼苏达州立大学数学与统计学系）
School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Witwatersrand（统计学与精算科学学院，威特沃特斯兰德大学）；Department of Mathematics, Alioune Diop University of Bambey（数学系，班贝阿里乌恩·迪奥普大学）
Copulas are known to satisfy a number of regularity properties, and one might therefore believe that their densities, when they exist, admit a certain degree of regularity themselves. We show that this is not true in general by constructing a broad family of copulas which admit densities that can hardly be considered regular. The copula densities are constructed from arbitrary univariate densities supported on the unit interval, and we show by example that the copula densities can inherit pathological behaviour from the underlying univariate densities. In particular, we construct a nontrivial …
Bayes spaces were initially designed to provide a geometric framework for the modeling and analysis of distributional data. It has recently come to light that this methodology can be exploited to provide an orthogonal decomposition of bivariate probability distributions into an independent and an interaction part. In this paper, new insights into these results are provided by reformulating them using Hilbert space theory and a multivariate extension is developed using a distributional analog of the Hoeffding-Sobol identity. A connection between the resulting decomposition of a multivariate den…
A New Approach to Goodness of Fit for Ergodic Markov Processes
The University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University（京都大学经济研究所）；National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)（国立政策研究大学院大学）；School of Economics, University of Sydney（悉尼大学经济学院）
Centre for Artificial Intelligence（人工智能中心）；Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit（盖茨比计算神经科学研究组）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Inria London（法国国家信息与自动化研究所伦敦分所）
