空间相关时间序列的阈值重复概率建模
Modeling threshold exceedance probabilities of spatially correlated time series
摘要：
欧洲联盟委员会和美国环境保护署已对环境空气中的某些污染物规定了限值，这些污染物已被证明对人类和环境健康有不利影响。因此，必须确定哪些区域超过这些限制的可能性很高。我们提出了一个两步的程序，估计超过法律限制，结合在时域中的平滑空间插值的概率。为了说明，我们展示了在意大利北部皮埃蒙特地区直径小于10微米的颗粒物（PM $_{10}$）的应用。
英文摘要：
The Commission of the European Union, as well the United States Environmental Protection Agency, have set limit values for some pollutants in the ambient air that have been shown to have adverse effects on human and environmental health. It is therefore important to identify regions where the probability of exceeding those limits is high. We propose a two-step procedure for estimating the probability of exceeding the legal limits that combines smoothing in the time domain with spatial interpolation. For illustration, we show an application to particulate matter with diameter less than 10 microns (PM$_{10}$) in the North-Italian region Piemonte.
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