太阳活动与全球平均气温
Solar activity and the mean global temperature
摘要：
推导了1956-2002年大气中宇宙射线产生的全球平均电离率随时间的变化，并表明其周期分量约为11年太阳周期的两倍。自1956年以来，全球平均地面温度随时间的长期变化被发现具有类似的周期分量。太阳辐照度和平均日太阳黑子数也有周期性变化。宇宙线速率的周期变化相对于温度、太阳辐照度和太阳黑子日变化滞后2-4年，表明这种相关性的起源更可能是太阳的直接活动，而不是宇宙射线。假设这种相关性是由这样的太阳活动引起的，我们推断，最近地球平均地面温度的最大增加，这可以归因于这种活动是观测到的全球变暖的$\lesssim14%$。
英文摘要：
The variation with time from 1956-2002 of the globally averaged rate of ionization produced by cosmic rays in the atmosphere is deduced and shown to have a cyclic component of period roughly twice the 11 year solar cycle period. Long term variations in the global average surface temperature as a function of time since 1956 are found to have a similar cyclic component. The cyclic variations are also observed in the solar irradiance and in the mean daily sun spot number. The cyclic variation in the cosmic ray rate is observed to be delayed by 2-4 years relative to the temperature, the solar irradiance and daily sun spot variations suggesting that the origin of the correlation is more likely to be direct solar activity than cosmic rays. Assuming that the correlation is caused by such solar activity, we deduce that the maximum recent increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth which can be ascribed to this activity is $\lesssim14%$ of the observed global warming.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
