信用指数期权的无套利定价：次贷危机后的非末日定价方法和相关性的作用
Arbitrage-free Pricing of Credit Index Options: The no-armageddon pricing measure and the role of correlation after the subprime crisis
摘要：
在这项工作中，我们考虑了三个问题的标准市场方法来定价的信用指数期权：指数价差的定义是无效的，通常认为的回报导致定价并不总是定义，和候选numeraire一个将用于定义一个定价措施不是严格的积极的，这将导致一个不等价的定价措施。我们给出了一个一般的数学解决方案的三个问题，基于一种新的方式建模的信息流，通过定义一个新的子过滤。使用这种细分，我们一致地考虑投资组合中所有名称违约的可能性，这在标准市场方法中被忽视。我们发现，虽然相关的错误定价可以忽略不计的标准选项在正常的市场条件下，它可以成为高度相关的不同的选项或在强调市场条件。特别是，我们表明，在2007年的市场数据后，次贷危机的市场公式相比，我们提出的无套利公式的错误定价已成为金融相关的流动性交叉指数期权。
英文摘要：
In this work we consider three problems of the standard market approach to pricing of credit index options: the definition of the index spread is not valid in general, the usually considered payoff leads to a pricing which is not always defined, and the candidate numeraire one would use to define a pricing measure is not strictly positive, which would lead to a non-equivalent pricing measure. We give a general mathematical solution to the three problems, based on a novel way of modeling the flow of information through the definition of a new subfiltration. Using this subfiltration, we take into account consistently the possibility of default of all names in the portfolio, that is neglected in the standard market approach. We show that, while the related mispricing can be negligible for standard options in normal market conditions, it can become highly relevant for different options or in stressed market conditions. In particular, we show on 2007 market data that after the subprime credit crisis the mispricing of the market formula compared to the no arbitrage formula we propose has become financially relevant even for the liquid Crossover Index Options.
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