应用种间竞争模型预测冷藏期间鱼表面嗜水气单胞菌的生长
Application of an interspecific competition model to predict the growth of Aeromonas hydrophila on fish surfaces during the refrigerated storage
摘要：
在冷藏期间（21天），对金头鲷表面的嗜水气单胞菌和需氧天然菌群（APC）的生长进行了评价。将相关生长曲线与通过常规三阶预测模型获得的生长曲线进行比较，所述常规三阶预测模型获得了观察数据与预测数据之间的低一致性（根均方误差= 1.77，对于嗜水气单胞菌，0.64，对于APC）。采用Lotka-Volterra种间竞争模型计算了两个细菌种群间的相互作用程度（β Ah/APC和β APC/Ah），分别为APC对嗜水气单胞菌的种间竞争系数，反之亦然。然后，应用Lotka-Volterra方程作为三级预测模型，同时考虑到环境波动和细菌种间竞争。该方法允许获得与观察到的平均生长曲线的最佳拟合，对于嗜水气单胞菌，均方根误差为0.09，对于APC，均方根误差为0.28。最后，作者进行了一些考虑，在预测微生物学的新趋势的背景下，竞争模型的必要使用。
英文摘要：
The growth of Aeromonas hydrophila and aerobic natural flora (APC) on gilthead seabream surfaces was evaluated during the refrigerated storage (21 days). The related growth curves were compared with those obtained by a conventional third order predictive model obtaining a low agreement between observed and predicted data (Root Mean Squared Error = 1.77 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.64 for APC). The Lotka-Volterra interspecific competition model was used in order to calculate the degree of interaction between the two bacterial populations (β_{Ah/APC} and β{APC/Ah}, respectively, the interspecific competition coefficients of APC on Aeromonas hydrophila and vice-versa). Afterwards, the Lotka-Volterra equations were applied as tertiary predictive model, taking into account, simultaneously, the environmental fluctuations and the bacterial interspecific competition. This approach allowed to obtain a best fitting to the observed mean growth curves with a Root Mean Squared Error of 0.09 for Aeromonas hydrophila and 0.28 for APC. Finally, authors carry out some considerations about the necessary use of competitive models in the context of the new trends in predictive microbiology.
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