The Baum-Welsh algorithm together with its derivatives and variations has been the main technique for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMM) from observational data. We present an HMM learning algorithm based on the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) of higher order Markovian statistics that is structurally different from the Baum-Welsh and its associated approaches. The described algorithm supports estimation of the number of recurrent states of an HMM and iterates the non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm to improve the learned HMM parameters. Numerical examples are provided as well.
In recent years, the rapid growth in technology has increased the opportunity for longitudinal human behavioral studies. Rich multimodal data, from wearables like Fitbit, online social networks, mobile phones etc. can be collected in natural environments. Uncovering the underlying low-dimensional structure of noisy multi-way data in an unsupervised setting is a challenging problem. Tensor factorization has been successful in extracting the interconnected low-dimensional descriptions of multi-way data. In this paper, we apply non-negative tensor factorization on a real-word wearable sensor data…
We consider the problem of learning low-dimensional representations for large-scale Markov chains. We formulate the task of representation learning as that of mapping the state space of the model to a low-dimensional state space, called the kernel space. The kernel space contains a set of meta states which are desired to be representative of only a small subset of original states. To promote this structural property, we constrain the number of nonzero entries of the mappings between the state space and the kernel space. By imposing the desired characteristics of the representation, we cast the…
Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago（芝加哥丰田理工学院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
We investigate the problem of factorizing a matrix into several sparse matrices and propose an algorithm for this under randomness and sparsity assumptions. This problem can be viewed as a simplification of the deep learning problem where finding a factorization corresponds to finding edges in different layers and values of hidden units. We prove that under certain assumptions for a sparse linear deep network with $n$ nodes in each layer, our algorithm is able to recover the structure of the network and values of top layer hidden units for depths up to $\tilde O(n^{1/6})$. We further discuss t…
Markov random fields provide a compact representation of joint probability distributions by representing its independence properties in an undirected graph. The well-known Hammersley-Clifford theorem uses these conditional independences to factorize a Gibbs distribution into a set of factors. However, an important issue of using a graph to represent independences is that it cannot encode some types of independence relations, such as the context-specific independences (CSIs). They are a particular case of conditional independences that is true only for a certain assignment of its conditioning s…
Despite their increasing popularity and success in a variety of supervised learning problems, deep neural networks are extremely hard to interpret and debug: Given and already trained Deep Neural Net, and a set of test inputs, how can we gain insight into how those inputs interact with different layers of the neural network? Furthermore, can we characterize a given deep neural network based on it's observed behavior on different inputs? In this paper we propose a novel factorization based approach on understanding how different deep neural networks operate. In our preliminary results, we ident…
ISEA, Université de la Nouvelle Calédonie（新喀里多尼亚大学 ISEA）
A generic method for inferring a dynamical hidden Markov model from a time series is proposed. Under reasonable hypothesis, the model is updated in constant time whenever a new measurement arrives.
Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Control applications often feature tasks with similar, but not identical, dynamics. We introduce the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework that parametrizes a family of related dynamical systems with a low-dimensional set of latent factors, and introduce a semiparametric regression approach for learning its structure from data. In the control setting, we show that a learned HiP-MDP rapidly identifies the dynamics of a new task instance, allowing an agent to flexibly adapt to task variations.
A simple linear algebraic explanation of the algorithm in "A Spectral Algorithm for Learning Hidden Markov Models" (COLT 2009). Most of the content is in Figure 2; the text just makes everything precise in four nearly-trivial claims.
Dipartimento di Informatica - Università di Pisa（比萨大学计算机系）
Hidden tree Markov models allow learning distributions for tree structured data while being interpretable as nondeterministic automata. We provide a concise summary of the main approaches in literature, focusing in particular on the causality assumptions introduced by the choice of a specific tree visit direction. We will then sketch a novel non-parametric generalization of the bottom-up hidden tree Markov model with its interpretation as a nondeterministic tree automaton with infinite states.
The application of the hidden Markov model with various parameters in the segmentation task of QRS, ST, T, P, PQ, ISO complexes of electrocardiograms is considered. Models were trained using the Viterbi algorithm using the QT Database. For comparison, the Pan-Tompkins algorithm for searching for the duration of QRS complexes was modified.
Time series and sequential data have gained significant attention recently since many real-world processes in various domains such as finance, education, biology, and engineering can be modeled as time series. Although many algorithms and methods such as the Kalman filter, hidden Markov model, and long short term memory (LSTM) are proposed to make inferences and predictions for the data, their usage significantly depends on the application, type of the problem, available data, and sufficient accuracy or loss. In this paper, we compare the supervised and unsupervised hidden Markov model to LSTM…
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of inferring human mobility on sub-daily time scales from, for example, mobile phone records.
ANEO；Centre Borelli - ENS Paris-saclay（巴黎萨克雷高等师范学院博雷利中心）；Criteo AI Lab（科韬人工智能实验室）；Crest, ENSAE（法国国立统计与经济管理学院 Crest 研究中心）
We introduce a new procedure to neuralize unsupervised Hidden Markov Models in the continuous case. This provides higher flexibility to solve problems with underlying latent variables. This approach is evaluated on both synthetic and real data. On top of generating likely model parameters with comparable performances to off-the-shelf neural architecture (LSTMs, GRUs,..), the obtained results are easily interpretable.
In this paper we study the problem of learning phylogenies and hidden Markov models. We call a Markov model nonsingular if all transition matrices have determinants bounded away from 0 (and 1). We highlight the role of the nonsingularity condition for the learning problem. Learning hidden Markov models without the nonsingularity condition is at least as hard as learning parity with noise, a well-known learning problem conjectured to be computationally hard. On the other hand, we give a polynomial-time algorithm for learning nonsingular phylogenies and hidden Markov models.
Momentum is a popular technique for improving convergence rates during gradient descent. In this research, we experiment with adding momentum to the Baum-Welch expectation-maximization algorithm for training Hidden Markov Models. We compare discrete Hidden Markov Models trained with and without momentum on English text and malware opcode data. The effectiveness of momentum is determined by measuring the changes in model score and classification accuracy due to momentum. Our extensive experiments indicate that adding momentum to Baum-Welch can reduce the number of iterations required for initia…
Information Sciences Institute, University of Southern California（南加州大学信息科学研究所）；Informatics Institute, University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学信息学研究所）；Google Brain（谷歌大脑）
In this work, we present the first results for neuralizing an Unsupervised Hidden Markov Model. We evaluate our approach on tag in- duction. Our approach outperforms existing generative models and is competitive with the state-of-the-art though with a simpler model easily extended to include additional context.
Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different financial time series depending on their structure. Subsequently, we analyse the forecasting methods exposed in the previous literature, putting on evidence their pros and cons.
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to perform inference in HSMMs. Unlike expectation maximization (EM), our approach correctly estimates the probability of given observation sequence based on a set of training sequences. Our approach is based on estimating moments from the sample, whose number of dimensions depends only logarithmically on the maximum length of the hidden state persistence. Moreove…
Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral features as well as implicit anisotropic spatial dependency across class labels. In this paper, we propose geographical hidden Markov tree, a probabilistic graphical model that generalizes the common hidden Markov model from a one dimensional sequence to a two dimensional map. Anisotropic spatial dependency is incorporated in the hidden class layer with a reverse t…
Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学数学科学中心）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；University of Bordeaux（波尔多大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
Hidden Markov models with observations in a Euclidean space play an important role in signal and image processing. Previous work extending to models where observations lie in Riemannian manifolds based on the Baum-Welch algorithm suffered from high memory usage and slow speed. Here we present an algorithm that is online, more accurate, and offers dramatic improvements in speed and efficiency.
INESC TEC（INESC TEC（葡萄牙系统与计算机工程研究所））；University of Porto（波尔图大学）
We propose a framework to model the distribution of sequential data coming from a set of entities connected in a graph with a known topology. The method is based on a mixture of shared hidden Markov models (HMMs), which are jointly trained in order to exploit the knowledge of the graph structure and in such a way that the obtained mixtures tend to be sparse. Experiments in different application domains demonstrate the effectiveness and versatility of the method.
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting technique to other techniques with machine learning, using wind-speed data offered by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Our results demonstrate that, compared to these methods, the proposed technique offers comparable or better performance.
Max-Planck-Institut für Quantenoptik（马克斯·普朗克量子光学研究所）；Munich Center for Quantum Science and Technology (MCQST)（慕尼黑量子科学与技术中心（MCQST））；Dahlem Center for Complex Quantum Systems, Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学达勒姆复杂量子系统中心）；Freie Universität Berlin（柏林自由大学）
Tensor-network techniques have enjoyed outstanding success in physics, and have recently attracted attention in machine learning, both as a tool for the formulation of new learning algorithms and for enhancing the mathematical understanding of existing methods. Inspired by these developments, and the natural correspondence between tensor networks and probabilistic graphical models, we provide a rigorous analysis of the expressive power of various tensor-network factorizations of discrete multivariate probability distributions. These factorizations include non-negative tensor-trains/MPS, which …
Advanced posterior analyses of hidden Markov models: finite Markov chain imbedding and hybrid decoding
National Centre for Register-based Research, Department of Public Health, Aarhus University（丹麦奥胡斯大学公共卫生系注册基于研究国家中心）；Bioinformatics Research Centre, Aarhus University（丹麦奥胡斯大学生物信息学研究中心）；Section for Evolutionary Genomics, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen（丹麦哥本哈根大学全球研究所进化基因组学部门）；Department of Mathematics, Aarhus University（丹麦奥胡斯大学数学系）
In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial time series and our model covers both. To illustrate the relevance of our proposed methodology, we first compare the proposed model with the well-known hidden Markov model via likelihood ratio tests and a novel goodness-of-fit test on the S\&P 500 daily returns. Secondly, we present out-of-sample hedging results on S\&P 500 vanilla options as well as a trad…
University Lumiere of Lyon 2（里昂第二吕米埃大学）；Chengdu University（成都大学）
As one of Bayesian analysis tools, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used to in extensive applications. Most HMMs are solved by Baum-Welch algorithm (BWHMM) to predict the model parameters, which is difficult to find global optimal solutions. This paper proposes an optimized Hidden Markov Model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and so is called PSOHMM. In order to overcome the statistical constraints in HMM, the paper develops re-normalization and re-mapping mechanisms to ensure the constraints in HMM. The experiments have shown that PSOHMM can search better solution than BWHMM…
This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the results of experiment respectively. After that we will analyze the pros and cons of different models. And finally, one of the best will be used into stock market for timing strategy.
In this paper, we propose circular Hidden Quantum Markov Models (c-HQMMs), which can be applied for modeling temporal data in quantum datasets (with classical datasets as a special case). We show that c-HQMMs are equivalent to a constrained tensor network (more precisely, circular Local Purified State with positive-semidefinite decomposition) model. This equivalence enables us to provide an efficient learning model for c-HQMMs. The proposed learning approach is evaluated on six real datasets and demonstrates the advantage of c-HQMMs on multiple datasets as compared to HQMMs, circular HMMs, and…
Modeling disease progression in healthcare administrative databases is complicated by the fact that patients are observed only at irregular intervals when they seek healthcare services. In a longitudinal cohort of 76,888 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), we used a continuous-time hidden Markov model with a generalized linear model to model healthcare utilization events. We found that the fitted model provides interpretable results suitable for summarization and hypothesis generation.
We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose an aggregate inference algorithm called collective Gaussian forward-backward algorithm, extending recently proposed Sinkhorn belief propagation algorithm to models characterized by Gaussian densities. Our algorithm enjoys convergence guarantee. In addition, it reduces to the standard Kalman filter when the observations are generated by a single individual. …
