arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 0808.3565q-fin.TRcond-mat.stat-mechphysics.soc-ph
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基于最小主体的金融市场模型II:线性和乘性动力学的统计性质

Minimal Agent Based Model for Financial Markets II: Statistical Properties of the Linear and Multiplicative Dynamics

V. Alfi, M. Cristelli, L. Pietronero, A. Zaccaria

摘要:

我们提出了一个详细的研究基于代理的模型和它的推广乘法动力学的统计特性。该模型的目的是考虑最低限度的因素,为了解的起源程式化的事实和他们的自组织。关键因素是基本面代理人,图表代理人,羊群效应和价格行为。前两个要素对应于市场中稳定和不稳定趋势之间的竞争。羊群行为控制着代理人改变策略的可能性,它是这类模型的关键要素。线性近似允许一个简单的解释模型的动态,对于许多属性,它是可能的,以获得分析结果。广义非线性动力学的结果是非常敏感的参数空间和更难以分析和控制。然而,关于程式化事实的性质和自组织的主要结果在这两种情况下非常相似。非线性动力学的主要特点是波动的增强和程式化事实的更明显的证据。我们还将讨论模型的一些修改,以引入与真实市场相关的更现实的元素。

英文摘要:

We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of an Agent Based Model and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the Stylized Facts and their Self-Organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. The linear approximation permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and Self-Organization of the Stylized Facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the Stylized Facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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