Inferring statistics of planet populations by means of automated microlensing searches
M. Dominik, U. G. Jorgensen, K. Horne, Y. Tsapras, R. A. Street, L. Wyrzykowski, F. V. Hessman, M. Hundertmark, S. Rahvar, J. Wambsganss, G. Scarpetta, V. Bozza… 展开作者
M. Dominik, U. G. Jorgensen, K. Horne, Y. Tsapras, R. A. Street, L. Wyrzykowski, F. V. Hessman, M. Hundertmark, S. Rahvar, J. Wambsganss, G. Scarpetta, V. Bozza, S. Calchi Novati, L. Mancini, G. Masi, J. Teuber, T. C. Hinse, I. A. Steele, M. J. Burgdorf, S. Kane
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10 pages in PDF format. White paper submitted to ESA's Exo-Planet Roadmap Advisory Team (EPR-AT); typos corrected. The embedded figures are available from the author on request. See also "Towards A Census of Earth-mass Exo-planets with Gravitational Microlensing" by J.P. Beaulieu, E. Kerins, S. Mao et al. (arXiv:0808.0005)
(abridged) The study of other worlds is key to understanding our own, and not only provides clues to the origin of our civilization, but also looks into its future. Rather than in identifying nearby systems and learning about their individual properties, the main value of the technique of gravitational microlensing is in obtaining the statistics of planetary populations within the Milky Way and beyond. Only the complementarity of different techniques currently employed promises to yield a complete picture of planet formation that has sufficient predictive power to let us understand how habitable worlds like ours evolve, and how abundant such systems are in the Universe. A cooperative three-step strategy of survey, follow-up, and anomaly monitoring of microlensing targets, realized by means of an automated expert system and a network of ground-based telescopes is ready right now to be used to obtain a first census of cool planets with masses reaching even below that of Earth orbiting K and M dwarfs in two distinct stellar populations, namely the Galactic bulge and disk. The hunt for extra-solar planets acts as a principal science driver for time-domain astronomy with robotic-telescope networks adopting fully-automated strategies. Several initiatives, both into facilities as well as into advanced software and strategies, are supposed to see the capabilities of gravitational microlensing programmes step-wise increasing over the next 10 years. New opportunities will show up with high-precision astrometry becoming available and studying the abundance of planets around stars in neighbouring galaxies becoming possible. Finally, we should not miss out on sharing the vision with the general public, and make its realization to profit not only the scientists but all the wider society.
Microlensing is potentially sensitive to multiple-planet systems containing analogs of all the solar system planets except Mercury, as well as to free floating planets. I review the landscape of microlensing planet searches, beginning with an outline of the method itself, and continuing with an overview of the results that have been obtained to date. Four planets have been detected with microlensing. I discuss what these detections have taught us about the frequency of terrestrial and giant planets with separations beyond the ``snow line.'' I then discuss the near and long-term prospects for m…
Specially-designed microlensing searches, some of which have been underway for several years, are sensitive to extrasolar planets orbiting the most common stars in our Galaxy. Microlensing is particularly well-suited to the detection of Jupiter-mass planets orbiting their parent stars at several AU. Since Jovian analogs are thought to influence the subsequent evolution of most planetary systems, they are particularly important to study. The orbital radii and distances to the planetary systems probed by microlensing are larger than those currently studied by radial velocity techniques; the two …
I review results from, and future prospects for, microlensing searches for extrasolar planets. Analyses of well-sampled microlensing light curves by several collaborations have demonstrated that current searches are sensitive to Jupiter-mass planets with few AU separations from M-dwarfs in the Galactic bulge. To date, however, no unambiguous planetary detections have been made. Detailed analysis has shown that this null result implies that <33% of typical stars (i.e. M-dwarfs) in the Galactic bulge have Jupiter-mass companions with separations between 1.5 and 4 AU, and <45% have three-Jupiter-…
We investigate the possibility of using globular clusters as targets for microlensing searches. Such searches will be challenging and require more powerful telescopes than now employed, but are feasible in the 0 future. Although expected event rates are low, we show that the wide variety of lines of sight to globular clusters greatly enhances the ability to distinguish between halo models using microlensing observations as compared to LMC/SMC observations alone.
It is shown that a significant amount of detectable gravitational microlensing events that could potentially be found by MAssively Parallel Photometry (MAPP) projects (such as the MACHO, EROS and OGLE collaborations) will occur for stars too dim to be easily noticed individually by these projects. This is the result of a large magnification bias effect, a bias of including high magnification events in any flux-limited sample. The probability of detecting these events may be as high as 2.3 times the lensing probability of stars currently being monitored by MAPP collaborations.
We examine recent results of two kinds of microlensing experiments intended to detect galactic dark matter objects, and we suggest that the lack of short period star-microlensing events observed for stars near the Galaxy does not preclude either the ``rogue planets'' identified from quasar-microlensing by Schild 1996 as the missing-mass of a lens galaxy, or the clumps of such objects predicted by the new Gibson 1996-2000 hydro-gravitational theory as the inner-halo galactic dark matter. We point out that such micro-brown-dwarfs in nonlinear accretional cascades to form stars give intermittent …
If compact baryonic objects contribute significantly to the dark matter in our Galaxy, their mass function will present vital clues for galaxy formation theories and star formation processes in the early Universe. Here we discuss what one might expect to learn about the mass function of Galactic dark matter from microlensing and from direct searches in the infrared and optical wavebands. Current microlensing results from the \eros\/ collaboration already constrain halo mass functions which extend below $10^{-4}~\sm$, whilst recent \hst\/ observations place strong constraints on disc and halo d…
The evolution of the observational results of microlensing towards the LMC and some of the suggested interpretations to account for them are discussed. It is emphasized that the results at present are indicative of a lensing population of white dwarfs, possibly in the spheroid (not dark halo) of the Galaxy, together with the more standard backgrounds of stellar populations in the Magellanic Clouds and in the Galaxy. This is also hinted by dynamical estimates of the spheroid mass and by recent direct searches of old white dwarfs.
There are two different strategies of followup observations for the detection of planets by using microlensing. One is detecting the light curve anomalies affected by the planetary caustic from continuous monitoring of all events detected by microlensing survey programs (type I strategy) and the other is detecting anomalies near the peak amplification affected by the central caustic from intensive monitoring of high amplification events (type II strategy). It was shown by Griest & Safizadeh that the type II strategy yields high planet detection efficiency per event. However, it is not known th…
We apply the pixel method of analysis (sometimes called ``pixel lensing'') to a small subset of the EROS-1 microlensing observations of the bar of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The pixel method is designed to find microlensing events of unresolved source stars and had heretofore been applied only to M31 where essentially all sources are unresolved. With our analysis optimised for the detection of long-duration microlensing events due to 0.01-1 Mo Machos, we detect no microlensing events and compute the corresponding detection efficiencies. We show that the pixel method, applied to crowded …
It has been proposed that the Galaxy might contain a population of cold clouds in numbers sufficient to account for a substantial fraction of the total mass of the Galaxy. These clouds would have masses of the order of 10^{-3} Solar mass and sizes of the order of 10 AU. We consider here the lensing effects of such clouds on the light from background stars. A semianalytical formalism for calculation of the magnification event rate produced by such gaseous lensing is developed, taking into account the spatial distribution of the dark matter in the Galaxy, the velocity distribution of the lensing…
The status of searches for gravitational microlensing events of the stars in our galaxy and in other galaxies of the Local Group, the interpretation of the results, some theory, and prospects for the future are reviewed. The searches have already unveiled about 100 events, at least two of them caused by binaries, and have already proven to be useful for studies of the Galactic structure. The events detected so far are probably attributable to the effects of ordinary stars, and possibly to sub-stellar brown dwarfs; however a firm conclusion cannot be reached yet because the analysis published t…
Recent surveys monitoring millions of light curves of resolved stars in the LMC have discovered several microlensing events. Unresolved stars could however significantly contribute to the microlensing rate towards the LMC. Monitoring pixels, as opposed to individual stars, should be able to detect stellar variability as a variation of the pixel flux. We present a first application of this new type of analysis (Pixel Method) to the LMC Bar. We describe the complete procedure applied to the EROS 91-92 data (one tenth of the existing CCD data set) in order to monitor pixel fluxes. First, geometri…
We describe a new method to search for gravitational microlensing toward the Galactic bulge that employs a small camera rather than a conventional telescope and probes new regions of parameter space. The small aperture (~65 mm) permits detection of stellar flux variations corresponding to magnitudes 7<I<16, whereas current searches are restricted by saturation to I>15. The large pixel size (~10") and ~(6 deg)^2 field of view allows observation of the entire bulge with a few pointings. With this large pixel size (and with the even larger 30" PSF that we advocate) most bulge stars are unresolved…
The ongoing microlensing searches have generated more photometric measurements of pulsating stars than all previous observing projects combined. In particular, OGLE has made ~ 340,000 B, V, and I-band measurements of ~ 1,300 Cepheids in the Large Magellanic Clouds accessible over Internet. Microlensing searches contributed to the development of very efficient image subtraction software which works best in crowded fields. This suggests the use of a period - flux amplitude rather than period - luminosity relation for the Cepheids for distance determination, as the flux amplitude is directly meas…
Massive gravitational microlensing programs were begun about a decade ago as a means to search for compact baryonic dark matter in the Galaxy, but before the first events were detected the technique was also proposed as a means of detecting extra-solar planets in our Galaxy. Current microlensing planet searches, which have been underway for four years, are sensitive to jovian-mass planets orbiting a few to several AU from their parent Galactic stars. Within two years, sufficient data should be in hand to characterize or meaningfully constrain the frequency of massive planets in this range of p…
We investigate the implications of a very thick (scale height 1.5 - 3.0 kpc) disk population of MACHOs. Such a population represents a reasonable alternative to standard halo configurations of a lensing population. We find that very thick disk distributions can lower the lens mass estimate derived from the microlensing data toward the LMC, although an average lens mass substantially below $0.3\Msol$ is unlikely. Constraints from direct searches for such lenses imply very low luminosity objects: thus thick disks do not solve the microlensing lens problem. We discuss further microlensing consequ…
Foundations of standard theory of microlensing are described, namely we consider microlensing stars in Galactic bulge, the Magellanic Clouds or other nearby galaxies. We suppose that gravitational microlenses lie between an Earth observer and these stars. Criteria of an identification of microlensing events are discussed. We also consider such microlensing events which do not satisfy these criteria (non-symmetrical light curves, chromatic effects, polarization effects). We describe results of MACHO collaboration observations towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and the Galactic bulge. Resu…
In 1998 the EXPORT team monitored microlensing event lightcurves using a CCD camera on the IAC 0.8m telescope on Tenerife to evaluate the prospect of using northern telescopes to find microlens anomalies that reveal planets orbiting the lens stars. The high airmass and more limited time available for observations of Galactic Bulge sources makes a northern site less favourable for microlensing planet searches. However, there are potentially a large number of northern 1m class telescopes that could devote a few hours per night to monitor ongoing microlensing events. Our IAC observations indicate…
A high optical depth to gravitational microlensing towards the galactic bulge is consistent with current models of the galactic bar. The low optical depth towards the LMC can probably be accounted for by the ordinary stars in our galaxy and in the LMC itself. No conclusive evidence is available yet for the presence or absence of a large number of brown dwarfs or other non-stellar compact objects which might account for the dark matter. There is little doubt that the amount of mass in objects in the range 10^{-8} < M/M_sun < 10^6 will be determined within the next few years with the continuing …
Microlensing is a proven extrasolar planet search method that has already yielded the detection of four exoplanets. These detections have changed our understanding of planet formation ``beyond the snowline'' by demonstrating that Neptune-mass planets with separations of several AU are common. Microlensing is sensitive to planets that are generally inaccessible to other methods, in particular cool planets at or beyond the snowline, very low-mass (i.e. terrestrial) planets, planets orbiting low-mass stars, free-floating planets, and even planets in external galaxies. Such planets can provide cri…
Microlensing observations have now become a useful tool in searching for non--luminous astrophysical compact objects (brown dwarfs, faint stars, neutron stars, black holes and even planets). Originally conceived for establishing whether the halo of the Galaxy is composed of this type of objects, the ongoing searches are actually also sensitive to the dark constituents of other Galactic components (thin and thick disks, outer spheroid, bulge). We discuss here the present searches for microlensing of stars in the Magellanic Clouds and in the Galactic bulge (EROS, MACHO, OGLE and DUO collaboratio…
We consider a contribution of microlensing to the X-ray variability of high-redshifted QSOs. Such an effect could be caused by stellar mass objects (SMO) located in a bulge or/and in a halo of this quasar as well as at cosmological distances between an observer and a quasar. Cosmologically distributed gravitational microlenses could be localized in galaxies (or even in bulge or halo of gravitational macrolenses) or could be distributed in a uniform way. We have analyzed both cases of such distributions. As a result of our analysis, we obtained that the optical depth for microlensing caused by …
I discuss two hypotheses that might explain LMC microlensing: the Halo stellar remnant lensing hypothesis and the unvirialized LMC lensing hypothesis. I show that white dwarfs cannot contribute substantially to the cosmic baryon budget; they are strongly constrained by chemical evolution and background light measurements. Although there have been some claims of direct optical detections of white dwarfs in the Halo, I show how the full sample of direct optical searches for halo lenses do not support the Halo lens hypothesis. N-body simulations suggest that the LMC may be naturally excited out o…
Although a decade of microlensing searches towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has detected 13-25 possible microlensing events, the nature and the location of the lenses, being either halo machos or LMC stars, remains a subject of debate. The star-star lensing models generically predict the existence of a small population (more than about 5 percent of stars with a spatial and kinematic distribution different from the thin, young disc of the LMC. Here we present the results of a large spectroscopic survey of the LMC, consisting of more than 1300 radial velocities measured accurately with t…
If the dark halo of our galaxy is made of compact objects as massive as M = 10^6 solar masses, their detection by means of ordinary microlensing searches would take a very long time as the characteristic time scale of such a lensing event, t_0, is approximately 200 years. Fortunately, the very high magnification events of the numerous faint stars, which are normally well below the detection threshold, have short duration peaks with a characteristic time scale of only t_0 / A_{max}, where A_{max} >> 1 is the peak magnification factor. The two almost equally bright images are separated by approx…
When there is more than one source of light along the line of sight to a gravitationally lensed object, the characteristics of the observed light curve are influenced by the presence of the light that is not lensed. In this paper we develop a formalism to quantify the associated effects. We find it useful to introduce the concept of a ``blended Einstein radius" and an ``effective Einstein radius", to describe the probability that a mass will serve as a lens, or that a source will be lensed in an observable way. These considerations lead to generic predictions about the results of gravitational…
Microlensing and pixel-lensing surveys play a fundamental role in the searches for galactic dark matter and in the study of the galactic structure. Recent observations suggest the presence of a population of old white dwarfs with high proper motion, probably in the galactic halo, with local mass density in the range $1.3\times 10^{-4}-4.4\times 10^{-3} M_{\odot}$ pc$^{-3}$, in addition to the standard galactic stellar disk and dark halo components. Investigation of the signatures on microlensing results towards the LMC of these different lens populations, with particular emphasis to white dwar…
Planetary systems toward the Galactic Bulge can be detected through microlensing measurements. The microlensing planet search technique has some unique merits: low-mass planets can be detected from the ground; the Galactic family of planetary systems can be sampled unbiased; the time scale for the completion of each event is relatively short. The unambiguity of the underlying low-multiplicity point lenses is an indispensable element that allows robust interpretaion of the events. We have found the first circumbinary planet in the microlensing event MACHO-97-BLG-41. We have found evidence of a …
Are microlensing searches likely to discover planets that harbor life? Given our present state of knowledge, this is a difficult question to answer. We therefore begin by asking a more narrowly focused question: are conditions on planets discovered via microlensing likely to be similar to those we experience on Earth? In this paper I link the microlensing observations to the well-known "Goldilocks Problem" (conditions on the Earth-like planets need to be "just right"), to find that Earth-like planets discovered via microlensing are likely to be orbiting stars more luminous than the sun. This m…
The discoveries of 17 microlensing event candidates have been reported over the last year by three teams conducting unprecedented mass photometric searches in the direction of the Galactic bulge and the Magellanic Clouds. These include 10 events found by the OGLE collaboration, 5 by the MACHO team and 2 by the EROS team. All searches have the main goal to detect dark matter in our Galaxy. The detection of 17 event candidates proves that the microlensing is a powerful tool in the search for dark matter, and it may be used for reliable mass determination when the geometry of the event is known. …
This is a preliminary report on the application of Difference Image Analysis (DIA) to galactic bulge images. The aim of this analysis is to increase the sensitivity to the detection of gravitational microlensing. We discuss how the DIA technique simplifies the process of discovering microlensing events by detecting only objects which have variable flux. We illustrate how the DIA technique is not limited to detection of so called ``pixel lensing'' events, but can also be used to improve photometry for classical microlensing events by removing the effects of blending. We will present a method wh…
Due to the high efficiency of planet detections, current microlensing planet searches focus on high-magnification events. High-magnification events are sensitive to remote binary companions as well and thus a sample of wide-separation binaries are expected to be collected as a byproduct. In this paper, we show that characterizing binaries for a portion of this sample will be difficult due to the degeneracy of the binary-lensing parameters. This degeneracy arises because the perturbation induced by the binary companion is well approximated by the Chang-Refsdal lensing for binaries with separati…
Observations of the gravitational microlensing event MOA 2003-BLG-32/OGLE 2003-BLG-219 are presented for which the peak magnification was over 500, the highest yet reported. Continuous observations around the peak enabled a sensitive search for planets orbiting the lens star. No planets were detected. Planets 1.3 times heavier than Earth were excluded from more than 50 % of the projected annular region from approximately 2.3 to 3.6 astronomical units surrounding the lens star, Uranus-mass planets from 0.9 to 8.7 astronomical units, and planets 1.3 times heavier than Saturn from 0.2 to 60 astro…
We report the serendipitous detection of a very bright, very nearby microlensing event. In late October 2006, an otherwise unremarkable A0 star at a distance ~1 kpc (GSC 3656-1328) brightened achromatically by a factor of nearly 40 over the span of several days and then decayed in an apparently symmetrical way. We present a light curve of the event based on optical photometry from the Center for Backyard Astrophysics and the All Sky Automated Survey, as well as near-infrared photometry from the Peters Automated Infrared Imaging Telescope. This light curve is well-fit by a generic microlensing …
In the current strategy of microlensing planet searches focusing on high-magnification events, wide and close binaries pose important sources of contamination that imitates planetary signals. For the purpose of finding systematic differences, we compare the patterns of central perturbations induced by a planet and a binary companion under severe finite-source effect. We find that the most prominent difference shows up in the morphology of the edge features with negative excess that appear at the edge of the circle with its center located at the caustic center and a radius equivalent to the sou…
Fifteen years or so ago, it was commonly argued; ``If we want to believe the observations rather than our prejudice, we should take as our best bet that dark haloes are baryonic.'' Such a viewpoint is not often heard today. This change-of-mind has been enforced upon us largely by the microlensing experiments. Particle dark matter differs from (most types of) baryonic dark matter in that it does not produce microlensing events. The familiar parade of baryonic candidates has now been whittled down, and perhaps only one remains as a possible substantial contributor to the dark matter in the Galax…
A microlensing lensing zone refers to the range of planet-star separations where the probability of detecting a planetary signal is high. Its conventional definition as the range between $\sim 0.6$ and 1.6 Einstein radii of the primary lens is based on the criterion that a major caustic induced by a planet should be located within the Einstein ring of the primary. However, current planetary lensing searches focus on high-magnification events to detect perturbations induced by another caustic located always within the Einstein ring very close to the primary lens (stellar caustic) and thus a new…
Searches for extrasolar planets have uncovered an astonishing diversity of planetary systems, yet the frequency of solar system analogs remains unknown. The gravitational microlensing planet search method is potentially sensitive to multiple-planet systems containing analogs of all the solar system planets except Mercury. We report the detection of a multiple-planet system with microlensing. We identify two planets with masses of ~0.71 and ~0.27 times the mass of Jupiter and orbital separations of ~2.3 and ~4.6 astronomical units orbiting a primary star of mass ~0.50 solar masses at a distance…
The current searches for microlensing events towards the galactic bulge can be used to detect planets around the lensing stars. Their effect is a short-term modulation on the smooth lightcurve produced by the main lensing star. Current and planned experiments should be sensitive enough to discover planets ranging from Jupiter mass down to Earth mass. For a successful detection of planets, it is necessary to accurately and frequently monitor a microlensing event photometrically, once it has been "triggered". We present a large variety of two-dimensional magnification distributions for systems c…
The MACHO project has been monitoring about ten million stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud in the search for gravitational microlensing events caused by massive compact halo objects (Machos) in the halo of the Milky Way. In our standard analysis, we have searched this data set for well sampled, long duration microlensing lightcurves, detected several microlensing events consistent with Machos in the 0.1 < m < 1.0 M_sun mass range, and set limits on the abundance of objects with masses 1e-5 < m < 0.1 M_sun. In this paper, we present a different type of analysis involving the search for very sh…
Gravitational microlensing is known for baryoninc dark matter searches. Here we show that microlensing also provides a unique tool for the detection of low mass planets (such as earths and neptunes) from the ground. A planetary system forms a binary lens (or, a multi-point lens), and we can determine the mass ratio of the planet with respect to the star and relative distance ($=$ separation/Einstein ring radius) between the star and planet. Such a microlenisng planet search project requires a $\approx 2$ m survey telescope, and a network of $1.5-2$ m follow-up telescopes capable of monitoring …
We consider the issue of reporting the result of search experiment in the most unbiased and efficient way, i.e. in a way which allows an easy interpretation and combination of results and which do not depend on whether the experimenters believe or not to having found the searched-for effect. Since this work uses the language of Bayesian theory, to which most physicists are not used, we find that it could be useful to practitioners to have in a single paper a simple presentation of Bayesian inference, together with an example of application of it in search of rare processes.
The population of solitary compact objects in the Galaxy is very diffcult to investigate. In this paper we analyze the possibility of using microlensing searches to detect and to analyze the properties of the solitary black holes and neutron stars. Evolution of single and binary stars is considered using the StarTrack population synthesis code. We investigate the properties of the Galactic population of compact objects numerically. We find that the compact object lensing events are concentrated in a region with the radius of $\approx 5$ degrees around the Galactic center. The distribution of m…
A common remark at conferences and meetings has been: "One can fit any light curve with binary lens models because of the large number of parameters!" It is especially tempting to claim that some of the possible binary events in the Galactic microlensing searches could be caused by cataclysmic variables since both phenomena exhibits asymmetric light curves. This paper presents a statistical analysis comparing the light curves of cataclysmic variable stars to the light curves generated from binary lens models. It is shown that the light curves of high amplitude cataclysmic variables are one exa…
