引力波观测站首次探测到双中子星合并的观测时间
Observation time to first detection of double neutron star mergers by gravitational wave observatories
摘要：
我们约束等待时间的不确定性检测的第一个双中子星（DNS）合并的引力波天文台。通过占泊松波动率密度的DNS合并和星系空间密度的不均匀性，在当地的宇宙中，我们定义了一个检测“区”作为一个区域的参数空间的约束下的双中子星合并率和两个LIGO操作参数：观测地平线距离和科学运行时间。假设每个银河系Myr^{-1}星系的DNS合并平均速率约为80，我们发现增强型LIGO在1年的观测中观察到合并的机会为1/20。高级LIGO灵敏度的最小等待时间和时间区宽度要短得多，这意味着在不到60天的时间内检测到DNS合并的概率为95%，在大约1天内首次检测到DNS合并的概率为1/20。在首次探测概率为5%的阈值下，我们发现星系团对探测的影响被消除，并且可能只在5-10年的观测时间后才影响探测率。
英文摘要：
We constrain the uncertainty in waiting times for detecting the first double-neutron-star (DNS) mergers by gravitational wave observatories. By accounting for the Poisson fluctuations in the rate density of DNS mergers and galaxy space density inhomogeneity in the local Universe, we define a detection `zone' as a region in a parameter space constrained by the double neutron star merger rate and two LIGO operations parameters: an observation horizon distance and science run duration. Assuming a mean rate of about 80 DNS mergers per Milky Way galaxy Myr^{-1}, we find a 1/20 chance of observing a merger by Enhanced LIGO in only 1 yr of observation. The minimum waiting time and temporal zone width for an Advanced LIGO sensitivity are much shorter and imply that there is a 95% probability of detecting a DNS merger in less than 60 days and a 1/20 chance of a first detection in about 1 day. At the 5% probability threshold for a first detection, we find that the effect of galaxy clusters on detection is smoothed out and may only influence detection rates after 5-10 years observation time.
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