限速提高对交通事故伤害严重度的影响分析
Analysis of the Effect of Speed Limit Increases on Accident-Injury Severities
摘要：
限速对道路安全的影响一直是印第安纳州和全国范围内持续辩论的主题。在印第安纳州，与高速公路有关的事故每年造成约900人死亡，4万人受伤，给该州带来了令人难以置信的社会和经济负担。尽管如此，在高速公路和其他道路上张贴的速度限制经常被超过，因为个别司机试图平衡安全性，流动性（速度），以及与执法工作相关的风险和处罚。自2005年7月1日印第安纳州提高农村州际公路和选定的多车道公路的限速以来，限速/安全问题一直是印第安纳州相当关注的问题。在本文中，张贴的限速对车辆事故的严重程度的影响进行了研究，使用印第安纳州的事故数据从2004年（前一年的限速提高）和2006年（后一年的限速提高农村州际公路和一些多车道非州际公路路线）。估计了各种道路等级上不同类型事故伤害严重度的统计模型。模型估计的结果表明，对于目前使用的限速范围，限速对州际公路事故的严重程度没有统计学上的显著影响。然而，对于一些非州际公路，发现更高的限速与更高的事故严重程度相关-这表明未来限速的变化，特别是非州际公路上的限速变化，需要根据具体情况仔细评估。
英文摘要：
The influence of speed limits on roadway safety has been a subject of continuous debate in the State of Indiana and nationwide. In Indiana, highway-related accidents result in about 900 fatalities and forty thousand injuries annually and place an incredible social and economic burden on the state. Still, speed limits posted on highways and other roads are routinely exceeded as individual drivers try to balance safety, mobility (speed), and the risks and penalties associated with law enforcement efforts. The speed-limit/safety issue has been a matter of considerable concern in Indiana since the state raised its speed limits on rural interstates and selected multilane highways on July 1, 2005. In this paper, the influence of the posted speed limit on the severity of vehicle accidents is studied using Indiana accident data from 2004 (the year before speed limits were raised) and 2006 (the year after speed limits were raised on rural interstates and some multi-lane non-interstate routes). Statistical models of the injury severity of different types of accidents on various roadway classes were estimated. The results of the model estimations showed that, for the speed limit ranges currently used, speed limits did not have a statistically significant effect on the severity of accidents on interstate highways. However, for some non-interstate highways, higher speed limits were found to be associated with higher accident severities - suggesting that future speed limit changes, on non-interstate highways in particular, need to be carefully assessed on a case-by-case basis.
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