“社会泡沫”：以美国阿波罗计划为例
"Bubbles in Society": The Example of the United States Apollo Program
摘要：
我们分析了阿波罗计划的经济、政治和社会因素，阿波罗计划是美国在和平时期进行的最特殊、最昂贵的项目之一，最终于1969年实现了人类首次登上月球。这项研究表明，阿波罗计划提供了一个生动的例子，社会泡沫，定义为集体过度热情以及不合理的投资和努力，通过过度的公众和/或政治期望的积极成果与风险规避的普遍减少。我们发现，经济，政治和社会因素编织了一个网络，加强反馈，导致广泛的过度热情和非凡的承诺，参与该项目的个人以及政治家和公众。我们提出了“促进泡沫”的一般概念，根据这一概念，泡沫是技术和社会企业中不可避免的发展，通过允许探索创新的特殊利基来造福社会。
英文摘要：
We present an analysis of the economic, political and social factors that underlay the Apollo program, one of the most exceptional and costly projects ever undertaken by the United States in peacetime that culminated in 1969 with the first human steps on the Moon. This study suggests that the Apollo program provides a vivid illustration of a societal bubble, defined as a collective over-enthusiasm as well as unreasonable investments and efforts, derived through excessive public and/or political expectations of positive outcomes associated with a general reduction of risk aversion. We show that economic, political and social factors weaved a network of reinforcing feedbacks that led to widespread over-enthusiasm and extraordinary commitment by individuals involved in the project as well as by politicians and by the public at large. We propose the general concept of ``pro-bubbles,'' according to which bubbles are an unavoidable development in technological and social enterprise that benefits society by allowing exceptional niches of innovation to be explored.
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