We propose a new method for dimension reduction in regression using the first two inverse moments. We develop corresponding weighted chi-squared tests for the dimension of the regression. The proposed method considers linear combinations of Sliced Inverse Regression (SIR) and the method using a new candidate matrix which is designed to recover the entire inverse second moment subspace. The optimal combination may be selected based on the p-values derived from the dimension tests. Theoretically, the proposed method, as well as Sliced Average Variance Estimate (SAVE), are more capable of recovering the complete central dimension reduction subspace than SIR and Principle Hessian Directions (pHd). Therefore it can substitute for SIR, pHd, SAVE, or any linear combination of them at a theoretical level. Simulation study indicates that the proposed method may have consistently greater power than SIR, pHd, and SAVE.
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the density function of a Chi-squared variable on the basis of observations of another Chi-squared variable and a normal variable under the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We assume that these variables have a common unknown scale parameter and that the mean of the normal variable is also unknown. We compare the risk functions of two Bayesian predictive densities: one with respect to a hierarchical shrinkage prior and the other based on a noninformative prior. The hierarchical Bayesian predictive density depends on the normal variable while the…
Approximate distributions for sum and difference of linearly correlated $χ^{2}$ distributed random variables are derived. It is shown that they can be reduced to conveniently parametrized gamma and Variance-Gamma distributions, respectively. The proposed distributions are very flexible, and the one for sum in particular has straight-forward generalizations to cases where multiple $χ^{2}$ variables with different parameters are involved. The results promptly extend to every sum of gamma variables with common scale and to every difference between gamma variables with common shape and scale. The …
Reduced chi-squared is a very popular method for model assessment, model comparison, convergence diagnostic, and error estimation in astronomy. In this manuscript, we discuss the pitfalls involved in using reduced chi-squared. There are two independent problems: (a) The number of degrees of freedom can only be estimated for linear models. Concerning nonlinear models, the number of degrees of freedom is unknown, i.e., it is not possible to compute the value of reduced chi-squared. (b) Due to random noise in the data, also the value of reduced chi-squared itself is subject to noise, i.e., the va…
In a thought-provoking paper, Efron (2011) investigated the merit and limitation of an empirical Bayes method to correct selection bias based on Tweedie's formula first reported by \cite{Robbins:1956}. The exceptional virtue of Tweedie's formula for the normal distribution lies in its representation of selection bias as a simple function of the derivative of log marginal likelihood. Since the marginal likelihood and its derivative can be estimated from the data directly without invoking prior information, bias correction can be carried out conveniently. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model…
Motivated by recent studies of big samples, this work aims at constructing a parametric model which is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, (ii) a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean, and (iii) a long-term convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit, together with a chi-squared goodness of fit result. This triple purpose has been achieved by the introduction of a new variant of the Eggenberger-Polya urn, that we call the "Rescaled" Polya urn. We provide a compl…
We present the $U$-Statistic Permutation (USP) test of independence in the context of discrete data displayed in a contingency table. Either Pearson's chi-squared test of independence, or the $G$-test, are typically used for this task, but we argue that these tests have serious deficiencies, both in terms of their inability to control the size of the test, and their power properties. By contrast, the USP test is guaranteed to control the size of the test at the nominal level for all sample sizes, has no issues with small (or zero) cell counts, and is able to detect distributions that violate i…
Pearson's chi-squared test is widely used to test the goodness of fit between categorical data and a given discrete distribution function. When the number of sets of the categorical data, say $k$, is a fixed integer, Pearson's chi-squared test statistic converges in distribution to a chi-squared distribution with $k-1$ degrees of freedom when the sample size $n$ goes to infinity. In real applications, the number $k$ often changes with $n$ and may be even much larger than $n$. By using the martingale techniques, we prove that Pearson's chi-squared test statistic converges to the normal under qu…
We study confidence regions and approximate chi-squared tests for variable groups in high-dimensional linear regression. When the size of the group is small, low-dimensional projection estimators for individual coefficients can be directly used to construct efficient confidence regions and p-values for the group. However, the existing analyses of low-dimensional projection estimators do not directly carry through for chi-squared-based inference of a large group of variables without inflating the sample size by a factor of the group size. We propose to de-bias a scaled group Lasso for chi-squar…
We examine the $χ^2$ test for binned, Gaussian samples, including effects due to the fact that the experimentally available sample standard deviation and the unavailable true standard deviation have different statistical properties. For data formed by binning Gaussian samples with bin size $n$, we find that the expected value and standard deviation of the reduced $χ^2$ statistic is \begin{equation} \frac{n-1}{n-3}\pm \frac{n-1}{n-3}\sqrt{\frac{n-2}{n-5}}\sqrt{\frac{2}{N-1}}, \end{equation} where $N$ is the total number of binned values. This is strictly larger in both mean and standard deviati…
In this article we derive an unbiased expression for the expected mean-squared error associated with continuously differentiable estimators of the noncentrality parameter of a chi-square random variable. We then consider the task of denoising squared-magnitude magnetic resonance image data, which are well modeled as independent noncentral chi-square random variables on two degrees of freedom. We consider two broad classes of linearly parameterized shrinkage estimators that can be optimized using our risk estimate, one in the general context of undecimated filterbank transforms, and another in …
We introduce the Generalized Rescaled Polya (GRP) urn, that provides a generative model for a chi-squared test of goodness of fit for the long-term probabilities of clustered data, with independence between clusters and correlation, due to a reinforcement mechanism, inside each cluster. We apply the proposed test to a data set of Twitter posts about COVID-19 pandemic: in a few words, for a classical chi-squared test the data result strongly significant for the rejection of the null hypothesis (the daily long-run sentiment rate remains constant), but, taking into account the correlation among d…
The classic chi-squared statistic for testing goodness-of-fit has long been a cornerstone of modern statistical practice. The statistic consists of a sum in which each summand involves division by the probability associated with the corresponding bin in the distribution being tested for goodness-of-fit. Typically this division should precipitate rebinning to uniformize the probabilities associated with the bins, in order to make the test reasonably powerful. With the now widespread availability of computers, there is no longer any need for this. The present paper provides efficient black-box a…
Exact Consistency Tests for Gaussian Mixture Filters using Normalized Deviation Squared Statistics
Smead Aerospace Engineering Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校斯米德航空航天工程科学学院）；Aurora Flight Sciences, a Boeing Company（波音公司旗下极光飞行科学公司）
