经济衰退和震荡后复苏的普遍形态
The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock
摘要：
我们发现，一个简单而直观的三参数方程非常适合许多国家在衰退和复苏时期以当前和不变美元计算的国内生产总值（GDP）的演变。然后，我们认为，这个方程是孤立的冲击的经济的响应函数，因此，它可以用来检测大的和小的冲击，包括那些不会导致衰退，我们还讨论了它的预测能力。最后，一个关于衰退和复苏的两部门模型说明了衰退的严重程度和持续时间如何取决于经济增长和衰退部分之间的转移率动态。
英文摘要：
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
