用盖亚探测天体测量行星的双盲试验计划
Double-blind test program for astrometric planet detection with Gaia
摘要：
我们使用合成行星系统的盖亚观测的详细模拟，并在双盲模式下开发和利用独立的软件代码来分析数据，包括用于行星检测的统计工具和用于单个和多个开普勒轨道拟合的不同算法，这些算法不使用系统真实轨道参数的先验知识。1)具有天体测量特征$α\simeq 3$乘以单次测量误差$σ_ψ$和周期$P\leq 5$ yr的行星可以被可靠地检测到，只有极少数的误报。2)在探测极限的两倍时，轨道参数和质量的不确定性通常为$15%-20%$。3)在$0.2\leq P\leq 9$ yr、$2\leqα/σ_ψ\leq 50$和偏心率$e\leq 0.6$范围内具有良好分离周期的双行星系统中，超过70%的系统都被正确识别。4)有利的轨道构型具有测量到的轨道要素，其当时的精度优于10% $> 90%$，并且确定的相互倾斜角的值具有不确定性$\leq 10^{\degr}$。5)最后，从拟合过程中获得的不确定性是实际误差的一个很好的估计。从当今系外行星样本的统计特性外推，结果意味着，具有$σ_ψ$ = 8 $μ$的盖亚在其公正且完整的行星系统星等限制普查中，将测量数千颗距恒星3-4天文单位的巨行星在200秒差距内，并将描述数百个多行星系统的特征，包括有意义的共面性测试。最后，我们将盖亚置于背景中，确定了行星系统科学的几个领域，当与来自其他正在进行和未来的行星搜索计划的数据相结合时，盖亚有望产生相关影响。
英文摘要：
We use detailed simulations of the Gaia observations of synthetic planetary systems and develop and utilize independent software codes in double-blind mode to analyze the data, including statistical tools for planet detection and different algorithms for single and multiple Keplerian orbit fitting that use no a priori knowledge of the true orbital parameters of the systems. 1) Planets with astrometric signatures $α\simeq 3$ times the single-measurement error $σ_ψ$ and period $P\leq 5$ yr can be detected reliably, with a very small number of false positives. 2) At twice the detection limit, uncertainties in orbital parameters and masses are typically $15%-20%$. 3) Over 70% of two-planet systems with well-separated periods in the range $0.2\leq P\leq 9$ yr, $2\leqα/σ_ψ\leq 50$, and eccentricity $e\leq 0.6$ are correctly identified. 4) Favorable orbital configurations have orbital elements measured to better than 10% accuracy $> 90%$ of the time, and the value of the mutual inclination angle determined with uncertainties $\leq 10^{\degr}$. 5) Finally, uncertainties obtained from the fitting procedures are a good estimate of the actual errors. Extrapolating from the present-day statistical properties of the exoplanet sample, the results imply that a Gaia with $σ_ψ$ = 8 $μ$as, in its unbiased and complete magnitude-limited census of planetary systems, will measure several thousand giant planets out to 3-4 AUs from stars within 200 pc, and will characterize hundreds of multiple-planet systems, including meaningful coplanarity tests. Finally, we put Gaia into context, identifying several areas of planetary-system science in which Gaia can be expected to have a relevant impact, when combined with data coming from other ongoing and future planet search programs.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
