非线性动力学、震级周期公式与地震预报
Nonlinear Dynamics, Magnitude-Period Formula and Forecasts on Earthquake
摘要：
根据地球动力学原理，由于岩层下流体层的运动和动量的输送与积累，使动量能量超过岩石的断裂阈值时，地震才发生。从流体力学的非线性方程组出发，可以导出与能量积累相对应的动量的简化非线性解。否则，可以得到一个混沌方程，其中混沌对应于地震，这表明地震学的复杂性，以及对地震进行精确预测的不可能性。但是，结合Carlson-Langer模型和Gutenberg-Richter关系，可以近似地导出该地震的震级-周期公式，并对某些结果进行定量计算。例如，我们预测了2004年，2009年和2014年的一系列地震，特别是2019年在加利福尼亚州。结合Lorenz模型，讨论了地震的往返迁移。而且，许多地震的外部原因仅仅是这个非线性系统的初始条件。
英文摘要：
Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum. From the nonlinear equations of fluid mechanics, a simplified nonlinear solution of momentum corresponding the accumulation of the energy could be derived. Otherwise, a chaos equation could be obtained, in which chaos corresponds to the earthquake, which shows complexity on seismology, and impossibility of exact prediction of earthquakes. But, combining the Carlson-Langer model and the Gutenberg-Richter relation, the magnitude-period formula of the earthquake may be derived approximately, and some results can be calculated quantitatively. For example, we forecast a series of earthquakes of 2004, 2009 and 2014, especially in 2019 in California. Combining the Lorenz model, we discuss the earthquake migration to and fro. Moreover, many external causes for earthquake are merely the initial conditions of this nonlinear system.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
