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arXiv 0802.0042astro-ph
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单个活动区太阳耀斑间隔分布的统计模型

Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

Yuki Kubo

摘要:

本文讨论了太阳耀斑在单个活动区的间隔分布的统计模型。我们分析了GOES软X射线耀斑目录中列出的55个活动区域的太阳耀斑数据。本文讨论了从任意数据集导出概率密度函数的传统方法所存在的问题,提出了一种新的方法,即利用极大似然方法和赤池信息准则(AIC)客观地比较一些竞争的概率密度函数。我们发现对数正态和逆高斯模型比指数模型更适合于太阳耀斑在单个活动区的间隔分布。结果表明,太阳耀斑不随机发生的时间,而是,太阳耀斑的间隔出现调节的太阳耀斑机制。我们简要地提到一个概率太阳耀斑预测方法作为一个应用程序的太阳耀斑的间隔分布分析。

英文摘要:

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.

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