社会经济系统中技术传播的元胞自动机

Modeling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics

In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high socio-economic standings as possible r…

Exploration of the effects of epidemics on the regional socio-economics: a modelling approach

Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is important to systematically study these interrelations, to determine which ones have significant effects, and whether the effects are adverse or beneficial. Our recently developed epidemic model with agent-based and geographical elements is used in this study for such a purpose. We perform an extensive parameter space exploration of the socio-economic part of th…

A Data-driven Understanding of COVID-19 Dynamics Using Sequential Genetic Algorithm Based Probabilistic Cellular Automata

COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection spreading is still growing steadily, causing thousands of deaths and serious socio-economic crisis. Thus, the identification of the major factors of this infection spreading dynamics is becoming crucial to minimize impact and lifetime of COVID-19 and any future pandemic. In this work, a probabilistic cellular automata based method has been employed to model…

Socio-economic disparities and COVID-19 in the USA

COVID-19 is not a universal killer. We study the spread of COVID-19 at the county level for the United States up until the 15$^{th}$ of August, 2020. We show that the prevalence of the disease and the death rate are correlated with the local socio-economic conditions often going beyond local population density distributions, especially in rural areas. We correlate the COVID-19 prevalence and death rate with data from the US Census Bureau and point out how the spreading patterns of the disease show asymmetries in urban and rural areas separately and are preferentially affecting the counties whe…

A framework for epidemic spreading in multiplex networks of metapopulations

We propose a theoretical framework for the study of epidemics in structured metapopulations, with heterogeneous agents, subjected to recurrent mobility patterns. We propose to represent the heterogeneity in the composition of the metapopulations as layers in a multiplex network, where nodes would correspond to geographical areas and layers account for the mobility patterns of agents of the same class. We analyze both the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible and the Susceptible-Infected-Removed epidemic models within this framework, and compare macroscopic and microscopic indicators of th…

边缘去除对最佳散布器中心性介数的影响

Impact of edge-removal on the centrality betweenness of the best spreaders

控制传染病传播对避免潜在的致命后果和减少不可预见的社会经济影响至关重要。2003年的严重急性呼吸系统综合症（SARS）就是有效控制的例子，SARS造成近千人死亡，航空公司和相关企业破产。在这篇文章中，我们研究的传染病传播的控制策略的有效性的基础上删除连接在现实世界中的航空公司网络与相关的经济和社会成本考虑到通过定义适当的量化措施。我们发现了令人惊讶的结果，即删除不太繁忙的连接可以比删除更流行的连接更有效地阻止疾病的传播。由于断开不太受欢迎的路线往往会产生更少的社会经济成本，我们的研究结果表明，有可能以疫情控制效率换取重要枢纽连通性的最小减少。特别是，我们展示了各种本地流行病控制策略的性能，并展示了我们的方法如何通过传播控制特性来预测其成本效益。