因果关系和关联：统计和法律方法
Causality and Association: The Statistical and Legal Approaches
摘要：
本文件讨论了在涉及基于流行病学（或更一般的观察或基于人口的）信息的统计投入的法律案件中确定"因果关系“的不同需要和办法。我们区分了三种版本的“原因”：第一种涉及提供或允许暴露的疏忽，第二种涉及“原因”，因为它是通过科学证明的人群暴露结果的风险增加而显示的，第三种认为“原因”可能适用于基于前两种的个人原告。人口为导向的“原因”是统计学家通常处理，我们提出了一个变化的布拉德福德山的方法来测试这种因果关系的观察框架，并讨论如何在法律背景下，这样一个系统的一系列测试可能会被认为是。我们回顾了目前使用概率陈述的一些法律方法，并将这些方法与这里开发的科学方法联系起来。特别是，我们提供了一种方法，既要考虑概率平衡导致的个体结果，又要考虑对这些结果的物质贡献。统计术语和法律上使用的诸如"概率平衡证明“或"因果关系”等术语很容易混淆，这主要是因为用类似的语言描述不同的概念;然而，我们的结论是，仔细分析可以确定和区分仅需要法律决定的领域和科学方法有用的领域。
英文摘要：
This paper discusses different needs and approaches to establishing ``causation'' that are relevant in legal cases involving statistical input based on epidemiological (or more generally observational or population-based) information. We distinguish between three versions of ``cause'': the first involves negligence in providing or allowing exposure, the second involves ``cause'' as it is shown through a scientifically proved increased risk of an outcome from the exposure in a population, and the third considers ``cause'' as it might apply to an individual plaintiff based on the first two. The population-oriented ``cause'' is that commonly addressed by statisticians, and we propose a variation on the Bradford Hill approach to testing such causality in an observational framework, and discuss how such a systematic series of tests might be considered in a legal context. We review some current legal approaches to using probabilistic statements, and link these with the scientific methodology as developed here. In particular, we provide an approach both to the idea of individual outcomes being caused on a balance of probabilities, and to the idea of material contribution to such outcomes. Statistical terminology and legal usage of terms such as ``proof on the balance of probabilities'' or ``causation'' can easily become confused, largely due to similar language describing dissimilar concepts; we conclude, however, that a careful analysis can identify and separate those areas in which a legal decision alone is required and those areas in which scientific approaches are useful.
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