用地震现象学、大气辐射转移和计算流体动力学说明的基于物理的模式确认的一般策略
A General Strategy for Physics-Based Model Validation Illustrated with Earthquake Phenomenology, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer, and Computational Fluid Dynamics
摘要：
验证通常被定义为确定模型从其预期用途的角度准确表示真实世界的程度的过程。验证是至关重要的，因为行业和政府越来越依赖计算机模型的预测来证明他们的决策。在这篇文章中，我们调查的模型验证文献，并提出制定验证作为一个迭代的建设过程，模仿的过程中发生的隐含在科学家的头脑。因此，我们提供了一个正式的代表性的逐步建立的信任模型，从而取代丧失能力的索赔的不可能验证一个给定的模型的自适应过程的建设性近似。这种方法更适合于验证的模糊、粗粒度性质。我们的程序因素的冗余度与用于验证的实验的新颖性，以及模型预测的观察结果的程度。我们说明了新的方法，首先与成熟的量子力学可以说是最好的建立物理理论，然后与几个具体的例子，从我们的一些主要的科学利益：地震的元胞自动机模型，太阳辐射传输的异常扩散模型在多云的大气，计算流体动力学代码的里希特迈尔-梅什科夫不稳定性。这篇文章是Sornette等人[2007]的扩充版本，发表在2007年的美国国家科学院院刊上（doi：10.1073/pnas.0611677104），电子增刊网址为http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0611677104/DC1。Sornette et al. [2007]也可以在physics/0511219上以预印本形式获得。
英文摘要：
Validation is often defined as the process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of its intended uses. Validation is crucial as industries and governments depend increasingly on predictions by computer models to justify their decisions. In this article, we survey the model validation literature and propose to formulate validation as an iterative construction process that mimics the process occurring implicitly in the minds of scientists. We thus offer a formal representation of the progressive build-up of trust in the model, and thereby replace incapacitating claims on the impossibility of validating a given model by an adaptive process of constructive approximation. This approach is better adapted to the fuzzy, coarse-grained nature of validation. Our procedure factors in the degree of redundancy versus novelty of the experiments used for validation as well as the degree to which the model predicts the observations. We illustrate the new methodology first with the maturation of Quantum Mechanics as the arguably best established physics theory and then with several concrete examples drawn from some of our primary scientific interests: a cellular automaton model for earthquakes, an anomalous diffusion model for solar radiation transport in the cloudy atmosphere, and a computational fluid dynamics code for the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. This article is an augmented version of Sornette et al. [2007] that appeared in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2007 (doi: 10.1073/pnas.0611677104), with an electronic supplement at URL http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0611677104/DC1. Sornette et al. [2007] is also available in preprint form at physics/0511219.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
