交通动力学的新见解：加权概率元胞自动机模型
New Insights into Traffic Dynamics: A Weighted Probabilistic Cellular Automaton Model
摘要：
从描述驾驶员加速行为的宏观角度出发，通过引入一种随机加速度概率分布函数，提出了一种加权概率元胞自动机模型（简称WP模型）。详细分析了基本图形、时空模式。结果表明，该模型的计算结果与经验数据吻合较好，在低密度区存在非线性的速度-密度关系，并产生了一种新的交通现象--新同步流。进一步给出了区分高速新同步流和低速新同步流的判据，阐明了这种交通现象的机理。此外，车头时距分布随时间的演化呈现正态分布的结果进一步验证了新同步流的合理性。这些结果表明，驾驶员和车辆的多样性和随机性确实对交通动力学有显着的影响。
英文摘要：
From the macroscopic viewpoint for describing the acceleration behavior of drivers, this letter presents a weighted probabilistic cellular automaton model (the WP model, for short) by introducing a kind of random acceleration probabilistic distribution function. The fundamental diagrams, the spatio-temporal pattern are analyzed in detail. It is shown that the presented model leads to the results consistent with the empirical data rather well, nonlinear velocity-density relationship exists in lower density region, and a new kind of traffic phenomenon called neo-synchronized flow is resulted. Furthermore, we give the criterion for distinguishing the high-speed and low-speed neo-synchronized flows and clarify the mechanism of this kind of traffic phenomena. In addition, the result that the time evolution of distribution of headways is displayed as a normal distribution further validates the reasonability of the neo-synchronized flow. These findings suggest that the diversity and randomicity of drivers and vehicles has indeed remarkable effect on traffic dynamics.
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