探索太阳活动周期预测的物理基础：平流与扩散主导的太阳对流带中通量输送动力学和记忆的持续性
Exploring the Physical Basis of Solar Cycle Predictions: Flux Transport Dynamics and Persistence of Memory in Advection versus Diffusion Dominated Solar Convection Zones
摘要：
太阳活动周期的可预测性，或缺乏可预测性，是由太阳内部许多独立的物理过程共同作用决定的。磁通量运输和有限的时间延迟，它引入，特别是在所谓的巴布科克-莱顿模型的太阳周期与空间分离的源区域的α和ω效应，在这种可预测性发挥了至关重要的作用。通过这样一个模型的发电机模拟，我们研究了太阳活动周期预测的物理基础，通过检查两个对比制度，一个占主导地位的扩散磁通量运输在太阳对流区，另一个占主导地位的平流通量运输的纬向环流。我们的分析表明，扩散起着重要的作用，在通量输送，即使当太阳活动周期是由纬向流速度。我们进一步研究的持久性的记忆过去的周期在平流和扩散为主的制度，通过随机强迫发电机模拟。我们发现，在对流为主的制度，这种记忆持续长达三个周期，而在扩散为主的制度，这种记忆主要持续一个周期。这表明基于这两种不同状态的太阳活动周期预测必须依赖于根本不同的输入-这可能是相互冲突的预测的原因。我们的模拟还表明，所观察到的太阳周期振幅周期的关系更自然地出现在扩散为主的制度，从而支持那些发电机模型中，扩散通量传输在太阳对流区中起着主导作用。
英文摘要：
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the so-called Babcock-Leighton models of the solar cycle with spatially segregated source regions for the alpha and omega effects, play a crucial rule in this predictability. Through dynamo simulations with such a model, we study the physical basis of solar cycle predictions by examining two contrasting regimes, one dominated by diffusive magnetic flux transport in the solar convection zone, the other dominated by advective flux transport by meridional circulation. Our analysis shows that diffusion plays an important role in flux transport, even when the solar cycle period is governed by the meridional flow speed. We further examine the persistence of memory of past cycles in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes through stochastically forced dynamo simulations. We find that in the advection-dominated regime, this memory persists for up to three cycles, whereas in the diffusion-dominated regime, this memory persists for mainly one cycle. This indicates that solar cycle predictions based on these two different regimes would have to rely on fundamentally different inputs - which may be the cause of conflicting predictions. Our simulations also show that the observed solar cycle amplitude-period relationship arises more naturally in the diffusion dominated regime, thereby supporting those dynamo models in which diffusive flux transport plays a dominant role in the solar convection zone.
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