This paper deals simultaneously with linear structural and functional error-in-variables models (SEIVM and FEIVM), revisiting in this context generalized and modified least squares estimators of the slope and intercept, and some methods of moments estimators of unknown variances of the measurement errors. New joint central limit theorems (CLT's) are established for these estimators in the SEIVM and FEIVM under some first time, so far the most general, respective conditions on the explanatory variables, and under the existence of four moments of the measurement errors. Moreover, due to them being in Studentized forms to begin with, the obtained CLT's are a priori nearly, or completely, data-based, and free of unknown parameters of the distribution of the errors and any parameters associated with the explanatory variables. In contrast, in related CLT's in the literature so far, the covariance matrices of the limiting normal distributions are, in general, complicated and depend on various, typically unknown parameters that are hard to estimate. In addition, the very forms of the CLT's in the present paper are universal for the SEIVM and FEIVM. This extends a previously known interplay between a SEIVM and a FEIVM. Moreover, though the particular methods and details of the proofs of the CLT's in the SEIVM and FEIVM that are established in this paper are quite different, a unified general scheme of these proofs is constructed for the two models herewith.
We define the minimum covariance determinant functionals for multivariate location and scatter through trimming functions and establish their existence at any multivariate distribution. We provide a precise characterization including a separating ellipsoid property and prove that the functionals are continuous. Moreover, we establish asymptotic normality for both the location and covariance estimator and derive the influence function. These results are obtained in a very general multivariate setting.
Let $f:[0,1)^d \to {\mathbb R}$ be an integrable function. An objective of many computer experiments is to estimate $\int_{[0,1)^d} f(x) dx$ by evaluating f at a finite number of points in [0,1)^d. There is a design issue in the choice of these points and a popular choice is via the use of randomized orthogonal arrays. This article proves a multivariate central limit theorem for a class of randomized orthogonal array sampling designs [Owen (1992a)] as well as for a class of OA-based Latin hypercubes [Tang (1993)].
We provide an explanation of the main ideas underlying Götze's main result in using Stein's method. We also provide detailed derivations of various intermediate estimates. Curiously, we are led to a different dimensional dependence of the constant than that given Götze's paper. We would like to dedicate this to Charles Stein on the occasion of his 90th birthday.
Consider the multivariate Stein equation $Δf - x\cdot \nabla f = h(x) - E h(Z)$, where $Z$ is a standard $d$-dimensional Gaussian random vector, and let $f\_h$ be the solution given by Barbour's generator approach. We prove that, when $h$ is $α$-Hölder ($0<α\leq1$), all derivatives of order $2$ of $f\_h$ are $α$-Hölder {\it up to a $\log$ factor}; in particular they are $β$-Hölder for all $β\in (0, α)$, hereby improving existing regularity results on the solution of the multivariate Gaussian Stein equation. For $α=1$, the regularity we obtain is optimal, as shown by an example given by Raič \c…
Sample covariance matrix and multivariate $F$-matrix play important roles in multivariate statistical analysis. The central limit theorems {\sl (CLT)} of linear spectral statistics associated with these matrices were established in Bai and Silverstein (2004) and Zheng (2012) which received considerable attentions and have been applied to solve many large dimensional statistical problems. However, the sample covariance matrices used in these papers are not centralized and there exist some questions about CLT's defined by the centralized sample covariance matrices. In this note, we shall provide…
Structural change detection problems are often encountered in analytics and econometrics, where the performance of a model can be significantly affected by unforeseen changes in the underlying relationships. Although these problems have a comparatively long history in statistics, the number of studies done in the context of multivariate data under nonparametric settings is still small. In this paper, we propose a consistent method for detecting multiple structural changes in a system of related regressions over a large dimensional variable space. In most applications, practitioners also do not…
We consider three types of multivariate records in this paper and derive the mean and the variance of their numbers for independent and uniform random samples from two prototype regions: hypercubes $[0,1]^d$ and $d$-dimensional simplex. Central limit theorems with convergence rates are established when the variance tends to infinity. Effective numerical procedures are also provided for computing the variance constants to high degree of precision.
This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate Central Limit Theorem for a random vector, whose components correspond to (possibly dependent) Hill estimators of the common shape index alpha, is established under mild conditions. Motivated by the statistical analysis of extremal spatial data in particular, we introduce the concept of (standard) heavy-tailed random field of tail index alpha and show how this l…
In this work, we propose to catch the complexity of the membrane potential's dynamic of a motoneuron between its spikes, taking into account the spikes from other neurons around. Our approach relies on two types of data: extracellular recordings of multiple spikes trains and intracellular recordings of the membrane potential of a central neuron. Our main contribution is to provide a unified framework and a complete pipeline to analyze neuronal activity from data extraction to statistical inference. The first step of the procedure is to select a subnetwork of neurons impacting the central neuro…
We provide a functional central limit theorem for a broad class of smooth functions for possibly noncausal multivariate linear processes with time-varying coefficients. Since the limiting processes depend on unknown quantities, we propose a local block bootstrap procedure to circumvent this inconvenience in practical applications. In particular, we prove bootstrap validity for a very broad class of processes. Our results are illustrated by some numerical examples.
Testing for series correlation among error terms is a basic problem in linear regression model diagnostics. The famous Durbin-Watson test and Durbin's h-test rely on certain model assumptions about the response and regressor variables. The present paper proposes simple tests for series correlation that are applicable in both fixed and random design linear regression models. The test statistics are based on the regression residuals and design matrix. The test procedures are robust under different distributions of random errors. The asymptotic distributions of the proposed statistics are derived…
We establish a central limit theorem for (a sequence of) multivariate martingales which dimension potentially grows with the length $n$ of the martingale. A consequence of the results are Gaussian couplings and a multiplier bootstrap for the maximum of a multivariate martingale whose dimensionality $d$ can be as large as $e^{n^c}$ for some $c>0$. We also develop new anti-concentration bounds for the maximum component of a high-dimensional Gaussian vector, which we believe is of independent interest. The results are applicable to a variety of settings. We fully develop its use to the estimation…
This article presents a weak law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the scaled realised covariation of a bivariate Brownian semistationary process. The novelty of our results lies in the fact that we derive the suitable asymptotic theory both in a multivariate setting and outside the classical semimartingale framework. The proofs rely heavily on recent developments in Malliavin calculus.
This paper presents the nonparametric inference for nonlinear volatility functionals of general multivariate Itô semimartingales, in high-frequency and noisy setting. Pre-averaging and truncation enable simultaneous handling of noise and jumps. Second-order expansion reveals explicit biases and a pathway to bias correction. Estimators based on this framework achieve the optimal convergence rate. A class of stable central limit theorems are attained with estimable asymptotic covariance matrices. This paper form a basis for infill asymptotic results of, for example, the realized Laplace transfor…
Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This methodology is extended to a multivariate setting, where we are able to handle multiple testing under arbitrary dependence. We demonstrate the method on a weather data set and in a simulation example.
Several distributions are studied, simultaneously in the real, complex, quaternion and octonion cases. Specifically, these are the central, nonsingular matricvariate and matrix multivariate T and beta type II distributions and the joint density of the singular values are obtained for real normed division algebras.
We propose a new prediction method for multivariate linear regression problems where the number of features is less than the sample size but the number of outcomes is extremely large. Many popular procedures, such as penalized regression procedures, require parameter tuning that is computationally untenable in such large-scale problems. We take a different approach, motivated by ideas from simultaneous estimation problems, that performs linear shrinkage on ordinary least squares parameter estimates. Our approach is extremely computationally efficient and tuning-free. We show that it can asympt…
University of Kassel（卡塞尔大学）；Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology（弗劳恩霍夫能源经济与能源系统技术研究所）
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple yet compelling idea of indexing observations of a probabilistic forecast through direction and vector length to estimate a central tendency. We extend the single-output QR technique to multivariate probabilistic targets. QS efficiently models dependencies in multivariate target variables and represents probability distributions through discrete quantile lev…
The extensive emergence of big data techniques has led to an increasing interest in the development of change-point detection algorithms that can perform well in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional setting. In the current paper, we propose a new method for the consistent estimation of the number and location of multiple generalized change-points in multivariate, possibly high-dimensional, noisy data sequences. The number of change-points is allowed to increase with the sample size and the dimensionality of the given data sequence. Having a number of univariate signals, which constitute t…
This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the training sample. The estimated uncertainties can be propagated into the optimal fit function, as an alternative to the statistical bootstrap method. This uncertainty can be propagated further into a loss function like quantity, with which it is possible to calculate the expected loss function, and allows to select the optimal polynomial degree with statisti…
We propose a new nonparametric procedure for the detection and estimation of multiple structural breaks in the autocovariance function of a multivariate (second- order) piecewise stationary process, which also identifies the components of the series where the breaks occur. The new method is based on a comparison of the estimated spectral distribution on different segments of the observed time series and consists of three steps: it starts with a consistent test, which allows to prove the existence of structural breaks at a controlled type I error. Secondly, it estimates sets containing possible…
Three types of integral representations for the cumulative distribution functions of convolutions of non-central p-variate gamma distributions are given by integration of elementary complex functions over the p-cube Cp = (-pi,pi]x...x(-pi,pi]. In particular, the joint distribution of the diagonal elements of a generalized quadratic form XAX' with n independent normally distributed column vectors in X is obtained. For a single p-variate gamma distribution function (p-1)-variate integrals over Cp-1 are derived. The integrals are numerically more favourable than integrals obtained from the Fourie…
A (p-1)-variate integral representation is given for the cumulative distribution function of the general p-variate non-central gamma distribution with a non-centrality matrix of any admissible rank. The real part of products of well known analytical functions is integrated over arguments from (-pi,pi). To facilitate the computation, these formulas are given more detailed for p=2 and p=3. These (p-1)-variate integrals are also derived for the diagonal of a non-central complex Wishart Matrix. Furthermore, some alternative formulas are given for the cases with an associated "one-factorial" (pxp)-…
The structural gradient model is a multivariate statistical model in order to extract various interactions of given data set. In this note, we show that Efron's statistical curvature of the structural gradient model is less than that of a competitive mixture model under a null hypothesis.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC community. We present a class of multivariate spectral variance estimators for the asymptotic covariance matrix in the Markov chain central limit theorem and provide conditions for strong consistency. We examine the finite sample properties of the multivariate spectral variance estimators and its eigenvalues in the context of a vector autoregressive process …
In this paper we investigate the performance of periodogram based estimators of the spectral density matrix of possibly high-dimensional time series. We suggest and study shrinkage as a remedy against numerical instabilities due to deteriorating condition numbers of (kernel) smoothed periodogram matrices. Moreover, shrinking the empirical eigenvalues in the frequency domain towards one another also improves at the same time the Mean Squared Error (MSE) of these widely used nonparametric spectral estimators. Compared to some existing time domain approaches, restricted to i.i.d. data, in the fre…
We address the component-based regularisation of a multivariate Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) in the framework of grouped data. A set Y of random responses is modelled with a multivariate GLMM, based on a set X of explanatory variables, a set A of additional explanatory variables, and random effects to introduce the within-group dependence of observations. Variables in X are assumed many and redundant so that regression demands regularisation. This is not the case for A, which contains few and selected variables. Regularisation is performed building an appropriate number of orthogonal …
Ramachandran (1969, Theorem 8) has shown that for any univariate infinitely divisible distribution and any positive real number $α$, an absolute moment of order $α$ relative to the distribution exists (as a finite number) if and only if this is so for a certain truncated version of the corresponding L$\acute{\rm e}$vy measure. A generalized version of this result in the case of multivariate infinitely divisible distributions, involving the concept of g-moments, is given by Sato (1999, Theorem 25.3). We extend Ramachandran's theorem to the multivariate case, keeping in mind the immediate requir…
Let $A$ and $B$ be independent, central Wishart matrices in $p$ variables with common covariance and having $m$ and $n$ degrees of freedom, respectively. The distribution of the largest eigenvalue of $(A+B)^{-1}B$ has numerous applications in multivariate statistics, but is difficult to calculate exactly. Suppose that $m$ and $n$ grow in proportion to $p$. We show that after centering and scaling, the distribution is approximated to second-order, $O(p^{-2/3})$, by the Tracy--Widom law. The results are obtained for both complex and then real-valued data by using methods of random matrix theory …
In this paper we study the problem of adaptive estimation of a multivariate function satisfying some structural assumption. We propose a novel estimation procedure that adapts simultaneously to unknown structure and smoothness of the underlying function. The problem of structural adaptation is stated as the problem of selection from a given collection of estimators. We develop a general selection rule and establish for it global oracle inequalities under arbitrary $\rL_p$--losses. These results are applied for adaptive estimation in the additive multi--index model.
