合取谬误与干扰效应
The conjunction fallacy and interference effects
摘要：
在这篇文章中，我们考虑的合取谬误，一个著名的认知启发式实验测试在认知科学，这发生在有限理性的情况下的直觉判断。我们表明，量子形式主义可以用来描述在一个非常简单的方式，这种谬论的干涉效应。我们的证据表明，量子形式主义很自然地导致违反贝叶斯规则时，考虑估计概率的结合两个事件。通过定义最大合取误差的概念，我们发现与实验结果很好地吻合。因此，我们认为，在认知科学中，量子力学的形式主义可以用来描述一个\textit{quantum regime}，有限理性制度，在那里的认知理论是有效的。
英文摘要：
In the present article we consider the conjunction fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum formalism can be used to describe in a very simple way this fallacy in terms of interference effect. We evidence that the quantum formalism leads quite naturally to violations of Bayes' rule when considering the estimated probability of the conjunction of two events. By defining the concept of maximal conjunction error, we find a good agreement with experimental results. Thus we suggest that in cognitive science the formalism of quantum mechanics can be used to describe a \textit{quantum regime}, the bounded-rationality regime, where the cognitive heuristics are valid.
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