在撒哈拉以南非洲(或其他地区),异性性传播是否推动了HIV/AIDS的流行?
Does heterosexual transmission drive the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa (or elsewhere)?
摘要:
两性基本生殖数(BRN)用于调查人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)可能通过撒哈拉以南非洲的异性接触传播的条件。(The BRN是一个受感染个体产生的新感染的预期数量;如果BRN大于1,则疾病传播。BRN的一个简单的分析表达式是根据最近的生存率,传播概率和性活动水平的数据得出的。基线结果表明,在一般人口(男女人数相等)中,如果每人每年与不同的伴侣发生82次性接触,则BRN大于1。如果每个商业性工作者每年约有256名嫖客,每个嫖客每两周访问一名商业性工作者,则商业性工作者及其嫖客(两个不同规模的人口)的BRN也大于1。敏感性分析探讨了传输概率加倍(或减半)对BRN的影响。的影响和扩展进行了讨论。
英文摘要:
A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new infections generated by one infected individual; the disease spreads if the BRN is larger than 1). A simple analytical expression for the BRN is derived on the basis of recent data on survival rates, transmission probabilities, and levels of sexual activity. Baseline results show that in the population at large (characterized by equal numbers of men and women) the BRN is larger than 1 if every year each person has 82 sexual contacts with different partners. the BRN is also larger than 1 for commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients (two populations of different sizes) if each CSW has about 256 clients per year and each client visits one CSW every two weeks. A sensitivity analysis explores the effect on the BRN of a doubling (or a halving) of the transmission probabilities. Implications and extensions are discussed.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。