放射化学太阳中微子数据的分析与封装。1.贝叶斯方法
Analysis and packaging of radiochemical solar neutrino data. 1. Bayesian approach
摘要：
根据目前的做法，放射化学太阳中微子实验的每次运行的结果包括通量的估计和上、下误差估计。这些估计值是通过最大似然法从分析室中的衰变事件的时间得出的。这种方法有以下缺点：（a）公布的结果有时包括负通量估计。(b)即使通量估计是非负的，通量和误差估计所隐含的概率分布函数也将扩展到负区域;以及（c）从一系列运行的结果导出的总体通量估计可能与通过对所有定时数据一起进行全局分析所做出的估计有很大不同。这些缺陷表明，在放射化学太阳中微子实验中通常的数据打包提供了一个不充分的数据摘要，这意味着信息的丢失。本文从贝叶斯理论的角度对这一问题进行了评述，并提出了一种新的方案来包装放射化学太阳中微子数据，我们认为这是不受上述反对的。
英文摘要：
According to current practice, the results of each run of a radiochemical solar neutrino experiment comprise an estimate of the flux and upper and lower error estimates. These estimates are derived by a maximum-likelihood procedure from the times of decay events in the analysis chamber. This procedure has the following shortcomings: (a) Published results sometimes include negative flux estimates. (b) Even if the flux estimate is non-negative, the probability distribution function implied by the flux and error estimates will extend into negative territory; and (c) The overall flux estimate derived from the results of a sequence of runs may differ substantially from an estimate made by a global analysis of all of the timing data taken together. These defects indicate that the usual packaging of data in radiochemical solar neutrino experiments provides an inadequate summary of the data, which implies a loss of information. This article reviews this problem from a Bayesian perspective, and suggests an alternative scheme for the packaging of radiochemical solar neutrino data, which is we believe free from the above objections.
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