太阳活动的极大极小值：新的观测约束
Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: New observational constraints
摘要：
使用重建的太阳黑子数绵延数千年，我们分析的统计数据发生的大极小值和极大值，并设置新的观测约束长期太阳和恒星发电机模型。我们提出了一个更新的重建太阳黑子数超过几千年，从$^{14}$ C数据的物理为基础的模型，使用更新的太阳开放磁通量的演变模型。列出了全新世（自公元前9500年以来）太阳活动的极大值和极小值，并分析了单个事件的长度以及它们之间的等待时间的统计数据。最小值/最大值的发生不是由长期的周期性变化驱动的，而是由随机/混沌过程驱动的。最小值/最大值发生的等待时间分布偏离指数分布，这意味着这些事件往往聚集在一起，集群之间有很长的无事件期。观测到两种不同类型的极小值：短（30- 90年）的蒙德型极小值和长（$>$ 110年）的Spörer型极小值，这意味着发电机在极小值期间的确定性行为定义了它的长度。极大值的持续时间服从指数分布，表明极大值的持续时间是由随机过程决定的。这些结果对太阳发电机的长期行为设置了新的观测约束。
英文摘要：
Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia, we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models. We present an updated reconstruction of sunspot number over multiple millennia, from $^{14}$C data by means of a physics-based model, using an updated model of the evolution of the solar open magnetic flux. A list of grand minima and maxima of solar activity is presented for the Holocene (since 9500 BC) and the statistics of both the length of individual events as well as the waiting time between them are analyzed. The occurrence of grand minima/maxima is driven not by long-term cyclic variability, but by a stochastic/chaotic process. The waiting time distribution of the occurrence of grand minima/maxima deviates from an exponential distribution, implying that these events tend to cluster together with long event-free periods between the clusters. Two different types of grand minima are observed: short (30--90 years) minima of Maunder type and long ($>$110 years) minima of Spörer type, implying that a deterministic behaviour of the dynamo during a grand minimum defines its length. The duration of grand maxima follows an exponential distribution, suggesting that the duration of a grand maximum is determined by a random process. These results set new observational constraints upon the long-term behaviour of the solar dynamo.
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