具有暂时交叉免疫的基本多菌株流行病模型中的一个新混沌吸引子
A new chaotic attractor in a basic multi-strain epidemiological model with temporary cross-immunity
摘要：
一个具有暂时交叉免疫的流行病多菌株模型显示出混沌，即使在一个先前意想不到的参数区域。特别是登革热模型，具有强增强的传染性，对二次感染先前已显示出确定性的混沌的实验结果的抗体依赖增强（ADE）的动机。在这种模型中包括临时交叉免疫，这是登革热领域研究人员的常识，我们在二次感染的传染性降低的更现实的参数区域（“逆ADE”参数区域）中发现了一个确定性混沌吸引子。这对登革热是现实的，因为第二次感染的人更有可能住院，因此不会像第一次感染的人那样对感染力有贡献。我们的发现具有更广泛的影响，超越登革热在任何多株流行病学系统与改变后的二次感染的传染性，因为我们可以放松的条件，相当高的二次感染的传染性先前所需的确定性混沌。对于登革热来说，发现大范围的混沌吸引子为分析现有数据集开辟了新的途径。
英文摘要：
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown deterministic chaos motivated by experimental findings of antibody-dependent-enhancement (ADE). Including temporary cross-immunity in such models, which is common knowledge among field researchers in dengue, we find a deterministically chaotic attractor in the more realistic parameter region of reduced infectivity on secondary infection (''inverse ADE'' parameter region). This is realistic for dengue fever since on second infection people are more likely to be hospitalized, hence do not contribute to the force of infection as much as people with first infection. Our finding has wider implications beyond dengue in any multi-strain epidemiological systems with altered infectivity upon secondary infection, since we can relax the condition of rather high infectivity on secondary infection previously required for deterministic chaos. For dengue the finding of wide ranges of chaotic attractors open new ways to analysis of existing data sets.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
