This paper provides a practical guide to estimating semiparametric and nonparametric fixed-effects panel data models using the mgcv package in R. The focus is implementation: handling fixed effects with unit indicators, first differencing, or penalized unit effects; specifying smooth terms; and conducting cluster-robust inference. Monte Carlo experiments compare \code{mgcv::bam} estimators with linear and fixed-series spline estimators. Simulations suggest that penalized splines adapt to unknown smoothness and estimate functions accurately in the designs studied here. A penalty-adjusted cluster-robust covariance estimator yields tests with near-nominal size for finite-dimensional parameters, and confidence bands provide accurate coverage for centered unknown functions.

We study strategic interaction when players delegate belief formation to predictive machine learning (ML). In a static Bayesian game, each player's ML agent predicts a payoff-relevant outcome variable as a function of the player's type. The ML agent's training sample is endogenous: it is drawn from the outcome distribution generated by players' ML-guided behavior. In Cross-Validation Equilibrium (CVE), each player's ML agent selects a predictive model to minimize expected out-of-sample squared error, given its realized training sample, and each player best-replies to the belief generated by the model her ML agent selected. We analyze CVE and relate it to other equilibrium concepts. We apply CVE to jury voting, speculative betting, and games with linear-quadratic payoffs. E.g., in a team-effort game, endogenous model selection can give rise to multiple equilibria.

We examine the continuity of equilibrium correspondences in infinite-dimensional settings where the commodity spaces are Banach lattices. Economies are modeled as Borel probability measures on a space of characteristics, with aggregate endowments defined via Bochner or Gel'fand integrals. Within this framework, we prove that the equilibrium correspondence is continuous on a dense subset of the domain of economies admitting equilibria, endowed with a suitable Polish topology. These results extend both classical and recent continuity theorems by providing a unified analytical treatment applicable to a substantially broader class of locally convex spaces and encompass models with infinite planning horizons, monopolistic competition, neoclassical economies, financial equilibria, and asymmetric information. Importantly, this study demonstrates that there is no necessity to impose differentiability assumptions that are typically required in regular economies to study equilibrium continuity.

Low-resolution data converters can significantly reduce the power consumption and silicon area of all-digital massive multi-user (MU) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) basestations. However, the existing literature almost exclusively focuses on idealistic quantization models, neglecting the inherent non-idealities present in real-world analog-to-digital converter (ADC) implementations. To overcome this limitation, we propose two affine models, one based on Bussgang's decomposition and one that maximizes the signal-to-distortion ratio (SDR), both accounting for the most prominent non-idealities in successive approximation register (SAR) ADCs. Subsequently, we utilize these models to devise low-complexity methods that mitigate SAR-ADC non-idealities in massive MU-MIMO wireless systems.

Affine frequency division multiplexing~(AFDM) has emerged as a compelling waveform candidate for future wireless networks, owing to its strong resilience to doubly selective channels and its ability to enable the seamless integration of communication and sensing functionalities. Against this context, this article provides a systematic study of AFDM from a standardization perspective. We first introduce the principles of AFDM and discuss the major considerations involved in waveform standardization. We then examine the backwards compatibility of AFDM with 4G/5G multi-numerology frameworks and their anticipated evolution, frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) radar waveforms, and long-range (LoRa) modulation, demonstrating that AFDM can be incorporated into legacy processing chains with limited modification. Key standardization-critical capabilities are further discussed, including multiple-antenna and multi-user support, and peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR). Finally, we investigate the potential of AFDM in several emerging scenarios, including non-terrestrial networks~(NTN), integrated sensing and communications (ISAC), vehicle-to-everything (V2X), and underwater acoustic (UWA) communications, whereby severe delay-Doppler dispersion places stringent demands on waveform robustness. Through these explorations, it is shown that that AFDM represents a timely and compelling technology for future wireless networks.

Practical implementations of phased arrays suffer from per-antenna gain, phase, and delay mismatches, which can significantly worsen the maximum sidelobe level (SLL) of beampatterns. The existing literature either analyzes specific structured mismatch patterns or derives per-angle marginal statistics under random mismatches, which fail to characterize global beampattern metrics such as the maximum SLL. To address this limitation, we propose a frequency-domain framework in which the beampattern is described by a tapering-window-dependent base function evaluated along a deformation determined by the array architecture and signal bandwidth. This formulation enables a spectral analysis of mismatches, revealing that element-wise errors generate weighted replicas of the ideal beampattern whose amplitudes are given by the discrete Fourier transform of the mismatch sequence. Building on this insight, we derive an approximation of the maximum SLL distribution under random gain and phase mismatches. The resulting expressions enable yield-oriented design and rapid design-space exploration without relying on computationally intensive Monte-Carlo simulations.

Chopper stabilized amplifiers are popularly used for realizing amplifiers with low offset and for rejecting flicker noise. One of the main limitations of these amplifiers is the low Input Impedance (Zin) produced by the switch capacitor input network. Zin here is resistive due to the switch capacitor action and is inversely proportional to the product of Chopping frequency (Fch) and Input Capacitance (Ci). Since Fch should be greater than the flicker noise corner frequency, this results in a low Zin. When interfacing sensors with high Sensor Output Impedance (Zo), chopper stabilized amplifiers load the sensors resulting in reduced sensitivity. This paper presents a novel input impedance boosting technique - Differential capacitor flipping technique for chopper based Capacitively Coupled Instrumentation Amplifier (CCIA), which prevents discharge and recharge of Ci's in every cycle by reconfiguring the capacitor positions while preserving the chopping operation. This ideally results in a purely capacitive Zin which is independent of Fch. The proposed architecture is used to demonstrate Electrocardiogram (ECG) signal acquisition with dry electrodes that have Zo in the order of a few Mega Ohms. This circuit implemented in TSMC 65 nm CMOS technology node features Zin of 21 GOhms at DC. The circuit has a power consumption of 2.6E(-6)W (2.8E(-6)W including clock generation circuits), with 7.2E(-6)Vrms (1 Hz-150 Hz) of total integrated input referred noise. ~

Variational autoencoder-based neural video coding has demonstrated impressive rate-distortion performance. However, its adoption in real-world applications remains hindered by challenges, such as prohibitively high computational complexity and limited cross-platform interoperability. These issues are often overlooked, as most neural video codecs rely on floating-point arithmetic to fully explore their rate-distortion potential. Practical deployment, however, requires integer-based implementations. Converting floating-point implementations into integer-based networks is non-trivial, since it involves quantizing inter-dependent coding components, whose sensitivity to precision may vary across codec designs. This paper introduces a Jointly-Optimized Mixed-Precision (JOMP) framework, in which both quantization parameters and bit widths are treated as learnable variables during training. This enables different codec modules to operate at varying precision levels, thereby jointly optimizing the rate-distortion-complexity trade-off. To the best of our knowledge, JOMP is the first mixed-precision quantization framework for neural video codecs. Its effectiveness is validated through a systematic investigation of quantization across different coding frameworks and temporal buffering strategies. Our study marks the first attempt to a unified understanding of the combined effects of modern coding frameworks and temporal buffering strategies, with the aim of informing future development of neural video codecs from a practicality perspective. In addition, we develop a complete integerization pipeline to achieve deterministic decoding. Overall, when applied to our best-performing model, JOMP enables end-to-end mixed-precision learning for integer neural video codecs, achieving rate-distortion performance comparable to that of the state-of-the-art DCVC-FM while reducing bit operations by 87.6%.

6G is expected to bring unprecedented advancements in the capabilities of vehicular networks. However, the advent of 6G will also introduce changes in the operation of vehicular communication infrastructures such as roadside units (RSUs), including the incorporation of autonomous intent-based network paradigm and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) capabilities. While ISAC enables sensing and communication within a single 6G network node, intent-based network design paradigm ensures that network nodes such as RSUs, act as autonomous cognitive agents to fulfill the objectives of their respective communication service providers. This paradigm shift necessitates the development of V2I communication strategies that learns and adapts to the sensing-assisted communication and the autonomous decision-making strategies of RSUs. We model the RSU as a constrained utility maximizer, where the utility function characterizes the RSU intent, and formulate an inverse learning (IL) problem to infer the underlying utility function from observed ISAC RSU actions, for example the adaptive beamwidth allocation in response to the kinematic states of vehicles within a vehicular micro-cloud (VMC). The main contributions of this paper are: (i) ATIL, a nonparametric method based on Afriat theorem for fixed utility learning; (ii) FICNNIL, a parametric approach using fully input-concave neural networks, for structured fixed utility learning; and (iii) PICNNIL, a parametric approach based on partially input-concave neural networks, for inverse learning of state-dependent utilities. (iv) Federated inverse learning algorithms FedFICNNIL and FedPICNNIL for fixed and state dependent utility, respectively. We demonstrate the proposed IL-based framework for two V2I communication applications in VMCs, namely predictive scheduling for cooperative data downloading and dynamic cluster-head selection.

Scanning Photothermal Radiometry (SPR) is an active thermal technique that is simultaneously non-destructive, contactless, and allows for temporal resolutions on the order of nanoseconds, spatial resolutions down to the sub-micrometre scale and at different depths. This scanning method can be time consuming thus this work shows that it is possible to reduce the amount of measurements taken by 6 when using SPR on a sample consisting of carbon fibres in an aluminium matrix. It uses irregular sampling on sparse signals, and a weighted random technique to further decrease the amount of samples needed.

Gears are an integral component of electromechanical applications, but accurate condition monitoring methods, including data-driven predictive maintenance, are strongly dependent on high-quality data, especially from faulty components. To address the scarcity of data, we proposed a multibody simulation using an advanced polygonal contact method to replicate torsional vibrations from an experimental azimuth thruster test rig. The key novelty is the ability to simulate both healthy and faulty gears with arbitrary fault geometries. The simulated signals closely matched the measurements in both time and frequency domains. In the time domain, average torque levels and periodic fluctuations aligned well, although measured signals exhibited higher peak-to-peak amplitudes and greater noise, particularly in healthy conditions at lower rotational speeds. In the frequency domain, the simulations accurately reproduced expected fault frequencies and corresponding sidebands, with larger faults producing higher amplitudes. While the simulations tended to overestimate peak amplitudes and underestimate external noise, the results were highly comparable to measurements and consistent with the physical expectations. These findings provide a robust foundation for enhancing data-driven condition monitoring methods, particularly those employing machine learning or deep learning.

In this paper, we propose leveraging rotatable antennas (RAs) to enhance near-field communication and sensing by exploiting a new orientation-domain spatial degree-of-freedom (DoF) provided by element-wise antenna rotation. Specifically, we investigate an RA-enabled near-field integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system with sub-connected hybrid beamforming, where each transmit RA can independently adjust its boresight direction under a practical rotation constraint. A spherical-wave channel model incorporating orientation-dependent antenna gains is established to characterize multi-user communication and target sensing in the presence of clutters. Based on this model, a weighted communication-sensing utility maximization problem is formulated by jointly optimizing the receive beamformer, digital beamformer, analog beamformer, and RA boresight directions. To solve the resulting non-convex problem, an alternating optimization algorithm is developed by combining fractional programming, Riemannian optimization, and a spherical-cap Frank--Wolfe-based boresight update. To further understand the impact of RA rotation on near-field sensing, we derive a closed-form root Cramer--Rao bound (RCRB) expression. Simulation results demonstrate the convergence and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. It is shown that the RA-enabled hybrid design can match or even outperform the fully-digital FPA benchmark in some regimes, indicating that the orientation-domain DoF introduced by element-wise rotation can compensate for limited RF chains. The RCRB and beampattern results further show that RA rotation improves off-broadside sensing accuracy, enhances range-domain focusing, and suppresses same-angle clutters in the near field.

Radio maps provide the essential foundation for low altitude networking systems. Unlike terrestrial radio maps that are typically generated via drive test measurements, mapping the air-ground environment requires the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This shift introduces two formidable challenges in uncharted 3D scenarios. First, sparse radio measurements and incomplete geometric observations hinder accurate reconstruction. Second, the large 3D action space and strict power constraints from high spectrum scanner energy consumption make informative exploration difficult. To address these issues, this paper proposes 3D uncertainty aware radio active mapping (3D-URAM), a closed loop active perception framework that decouples the mapping process into two offline trained stages. In Stage I, a Bayesian UNet is developed to recover radio maps from sparse measurements and partial geometry while providing calibrated predictive uncertainty. In Stage II, a dynamic probabilistic roadmap and a transformer based waypoint selection policy trained via proximal policy optimization maximize long horizon uncertainty reduction under travel budgets. Experimental results demonstrate that 3D-URAM reduces reconstruction error by over 50% compared to representative baselines. Real-world field tests within a 300mx200mx100m space also validate the potential of active radio map reconstruction.

This paper proposes a beamforming optimization scheme with joint antenna sub-array selection (SAS) and angular perturbation-based nulling (APN) for full-duplex (FD) massive multiple-input multiple-output (mMIMO) systems, to simultaneously suppress self-interference (SI) and multi-user interference (MUI). A comprehensive over-the-air SI channel measurement campaign, conducted with an 8x8Tx-8x8Rx FD array prototype, reveals significant variations across sub-arrays at different spatial locations, as well as reconfigurable characteristics of the SI channel under diverse Tx and Rx sub-array configurations. To exploit the selective SI channels, a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based algorithm is developed to jointly determine optimal sub-array indices and perturbed steering angles, thereby effectively nullifying potential interference. Selecting sub-arrays with inherently lower SI channels notably enhances the beam-level isolation, while the added selection flexibility among comparable SI channels ensures more uniform SI suppression across diverse DL/UL locations and significantly improves worst-case isolation. Experimental evaluation based on the measured SI channel demonstrates that the proposed SAS technique achieves residual Tx-Rx beam-level SI suppression improvements of 29.2 dB and 26.6 dB for the sample 1x2 and 1x4 sub-arrays, respectively. A worst-case improvement greater than 30.7 dB is observed. Overall, the joint SAS and APN optimization scheme achieves average beam-level isolation of 85.2 dB and 83.3 dB with the 1x2 and 1x4 sub-arrays, respectively. With the application of a baseband precoder, all tested sub-array configurations achieve average MUI suppression better than -181.3 dB. These results confirm the potential of the proposed optimization algorithm to successfully reduce interference to the noise floor, thereby guaranteeing reliable FD mMIMO operation.

Affine frequency division multiplexing (AFDM) exhibits excellent Doppler robustness and the ability to characterize doubly selective channels. However, its signal dispersion characteristics make it challenging to directly adopt traditional time-frequency multiple access schemes. To address this issue, we introduce cooperative rate splitting multiple access (RSMA) for AFDM systems. The flexible configuration of AFDM chirp parameters can reduce the correlation between users' equivalent channels, which decreases the interference from RSMA private streams. We conduct a theoretical analysis of the cooperative RSMA-AFDM system and demonstrate that minimizing the overlap in the channel column spaces among users can effectively enhance the system performance. Guided by this analysis, we design a chirp parameter optimization scheme that reduces multi-user interference and maximizes diversity gain. To fully exploit the diversity gain brought by the proposed chirp parameter optimization, two expectation propagation (EP)-based distributed cooperative detection schemes are proposed. First, a decision-fusion-based method is developed, where local information and cooperative information are fused by maximum ratio combining, achieving a globally consistent estimate of the common stream. Second, we develop a belief-consensus EP-based detection scheme. In each iteration, user nodes exchange and fuse the first- and second-order statistics of the common stream, and the resulting beliefs gradually converge to a consistent global decision, which significantly improves the overall reliability.

This article proposes an improved rank based regression estimator obtained by replacing the ordinary integer ranks in the Wilcoxon rank-score regression procedure with smoothed ranks derived from a smoothed empirical cumulative distribution function. The smoothed ranks are computed via a continuous, nondecreasing kernel distribution function H that provides a differentiable approximation to the classical indicator function used in standard rank regression. Substituting these smoothed ranks into the Wilcoxon score function yields a new estimator for the slope parameter(s) of the simple and multiple linear regression model. We show that the proposed estimator inherits the robustness properties of classical rank regression while providing improved efficiency under heavy tailed error distributions and better handling of tied observations. A Wald type hypothesis test for the regression coefficients is derived and its asymptotic normality is established. A Monte Carlo simulation study compares new estimator with the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator, the classical Wilcoxon rank regression estimator, and the Theil and Sen estimator under several error distributions including the normal, Laplace, Cauchy, and contaminated normal. The proposed estimator achieves relative efficiencies at or above those of classical rank regression uniformly across all scenarios considered, with notable gains in the presence of outliers and heavy-tailed errors.

Small randomized controlled trials are often used to screen interventions before running larger follow-up studies. This is a critical phase of experimentation, as missing effective interventions or scaling up harmful ones can be very costly. A common proposal to mitigate these errors is to recruit samples that are representative of the target population, but this is often challenging in resource-constrained pilots. We challenge the narrative that representative samples are always superior by showing that when statistical significance testing determines whether interventions receive further study, the pilot trial composition that maximizes the downstream expected improvement in outcomes depends critically on its budget size. In the large-budget limit, the optimal pilot design converges to a sample that is representative of the target population. However, in the small-budget regime, the pilot designer maximizes expected impact by sampling only from a single homogeneous sub-population, chosen in a manner that depends on sampling costs and the designer's prior beliefs about heterogeneous treatment effects. Our proof of the small-budget result applies more generally when an RCT and significance test are used to decide whether to receive any non-adaptive downstream payoff, a result that may be applicable to other settings with constrained experimentation budgets.

In multi-class classification problems, classes often have a natural priority ordering (e.g., cancer stages, COVID-19 severity levels, or air-quality categories). In such settings, it is important to prioritize correct identification of more severe classes and to control under-classification errors, which occur when an observation from a higher-priority class is misclassified into a lower-priority one. The Hierarchical Neyman-Pearson (H-NP) framework of Wang et al. (2024) was developed for ordered multi-class settings to prioritize under-classification error control; its H-NP umbrella algorithm provides high-probability control of under-classification errors at user-specified levels. This paper introduces the R package HNPclassifier, which implements H-NP umbrella algorithms to construct H-NP classifiers using built-in learners such as logistic regression, random forests, and support vector machines, as well as user-supplied scoring functions, thereby enabling effective error control for ordered multi-class classification tasks.

We give a principled derivation of the Soft-Min-SNR weight of Crowson et al. (2024). The spread divergence of Zhang et al. (2018) convolves both compared distributions with a Gaussian kernel before taking the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence; applied to the per-sample local matched-Gaussian surrogate at each timestep, it yields the closed-form weight w(t,lambda) = sigma^2 / (sigma^2 + lambda). Three consequences follow. First, for variance-preserving schedules, w(t,lambda) equals a constant multiple of Soft-Min-SNR with gamma' = (1+lambda)/lambda, deriving a validated heuristic rather than introducing a new weight. Second, the same weight matches Min-SNR-gamma at leading order under gamma approximately 1/lambda, giving a cross-walk between the soft and hard reweighting families. Third, a local-geometry analysis scales an SGD-difficulty proxy by w^3 at high-SNR timesteps. Complementary to the objective-level account of Kingma & Gao (2023), who unified monotonic-in-log-SNR weightings as ELBOs of noise-augmented data, ours smooths both compared distributions rather than only the data side. Empirically, the matching rule holds on CIFAR-10 (linear and cosine) and CelebA-64 (cosine), with trajectory-wide confirmation on the cross-dataset cut: |Ours - Min-SNR| averages 0.45 FID across seven intermediate checkpoints on the seed-42 CelebA-64 trajectory, roughly 3x tighter than either reweighter's gap to DDPM. The local-geometry prediction is partially borne out: Ours converges about 21% earlier than DDPM at mid-training FID thresholds on CIFAR-10's linear schedule, where high-SNR damping headroom is largest, but this iteration-efficiency advantage does not transfer to cosine or CelebA-64, where all three methods reach similar final FIDs. Overall: final-FID parity with dataset-dependent iteration efficiency, plus a principled matching rule across the Min-SNR family.

The ongoing electrification and integration of renewable energy sources in Denmark's distribution grids pose significant operational challenges, including insufficient reserve capacity, component degradation due to overload, voltage instability, and increasing infrastructure investment requirements. This article argues that implicit demand-side flexibility (DSF) incentivized through dynamic tariffs offers the most scalable and cost-effective approach to address these challenges in a modern distribution network. We demonstrate that while explicit flexibility mechanisms provide operational certainty, they cannot scale to address system-wide congestion across heterogeneous customer bases. Drawing on empirical consumption data showing strong price-responsive behavior, varying prices due to, e.g., regulatory frameworks including the Danish Market Model 3.0 and Tariff Model 3.0, and economic analysis, we demonstrate potential grid savings of 13--48 million DKK per constrained substation through deferred or avoided reinforcement. We argue that implicit DSF mechanisms represent the necessary pathway for revenue-neutral scalable flexibility solutions that can defer costly grid reinforcements while maintaining system reliability. Beyond direct grid savings, additional value streams include avoided peak generation costs, reduced connection delays, and lower outage risk, further strengthening the economic case. Critically, dynamic tariffs offer the mechanism through which real-time grid constraints can be communicated to consumers, enabling price signals that accurately reflect the actual state of the capacity of the distribution network at any given point in time and space.

Using thematic maps to publish statistical information has become a popular visualization. As is the case with all statistical publications, thematic maps also have to deal with the balance between disclosure risk and utility. However, most risk and utility measures do not take into account the spatial character of a map. Some of the proposed spatial risk measures suffer from the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP): slightly changing regional classifications may influence the risk. Indeed, even a small translation of for example a grid may influence that risk. We propose a new risk measure that does not suffer from MAUP. Moreover, our risk is directly related to the local density of the (target) population and takes into account that often multiple units may be connected to a single location. We show the behavior of our risk measure using an example dataset of fake but realistic locations of enterprises. Our risk measure can be adapted to take into account the effect on the (perceived) risk of zooming in or out and the effect of the used resolution.

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are frequently used to evaluate interventions, yet conducting causal mediation analysis in these settings remains challenging, particularly when the mediator is measured at the cluster level and the number of clusters is small. Standard inference methods often rely on asymptotic assumptions that fail in finite-sample settings, leading to biased variance estimation and invalid confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a robust inference framework for causal mediation analysis in CRTs. We utilize parametric Bayesian models for the outcome and mediator to ensure computational efficiency and interpretability. Crucially, to quantify uncertainty, we specify a novel similarity-weighted Bayesian bootstrap (SWBB) with a `distance' metric between clusters; this avoids the need for restrictive parametric assumptions and allows the model to borrow more information from `closer' clusters. By combining observed data models with causal assumptions, our approach accurately estimates natural direct and indirect effects even with limited clusters. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method achieves nominal coverage probability across diverse scenarios. We illustrate the practical utility of our approach by assessing mediation in a CRT in Kenya.

Causal discovery aims to identify causal relationships among variables from observational or interventional data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The causal invariance principle enables the identification of the causal parents of target variables by exploiting the stability of causal effects across different experimental settings. When some parents are unobserved, however, the induced graph over the observed variables may no longer be a DAG, and it may not be unique, complicating causal inference. For relevant configurations of latent parents, we characterize the induced graph and formalize the conditions under which causal invariance is preserved for the identification of the observed parents. Necessary and sufficient conditions for testing such invariance are formally established for a multivariate Gaussian target.

We study robust parameter estimation in sinusoidal regression models within a least absolute deviations (LAD) framework. While classical approaches rely predominantly on least-squares formulations, they are known to be sensitive to heavy-tailed noise and outliers. We formulate the estimation problem as direct minimization of the LAD objective and propose a simple, modular coordinate descent algorithm that exploits the partial convexity of the objective: amplitude parameters are updated via weighted median computations, leading to substantial computational improvements over traditional simplex-based optimization methods, while frequency parameters are estimated via a periodogram-inspired grid search with local refinement. We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator under mild regularity conditions. Empirically, we demonstrate the method's effectiveness on both synthetic datasets and real-world time series, including the Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 data, air passenger data, and UK drivers' deaths data, where robustness to non-Gaussian noise is essential. The proposed approach provides a simple, interpretable, and robust alternative to least-squares-based methods for sinusoidal signal estimation.

Vine copulas provide a flexible framework for modeling complex multivariate dependence structures using only bivariate building blocks. Their practical success relies heavily on the simplifying assumption, which restricts conditional pair copulas to be independent of the specific conditioning values. While this assumption greatly facilitates estimation, it may lead to model misspecification in applications with pronounced varying conditional dependence. We propose a novel calibration strategy for simplified vine copula models based on observation-specific correction factors. These factors are derived using noise contrastive estimation (NCE), a supervised learning technique for density estimation that reframes the problem as a binary classification task with an easily sampled noise distribution. Treating the fitted simplified vine copula as the noise model, the NCE approach yields corrected log-likelihood estimates for individual observations, thereby locally adjusting the simplified vine toward the underlying data-generating dependence structure. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed calibration provides sensible and effective adjustments, improving model accuracy when the simplifying assumption is violated while remaining neutral when the simplified model is adequate. Two real-data applications further illustrate the practical benefits of the method. The results highlight NCE-based calibration as a promising tool to enhance simplified vine copula models without abandoning their computational tractability.

In aerospace certification and other safety-critical domains, conservative quantile estimation such as A- and B-basis values is essential to guarantee reliability. While these metrics are traditionally derived from experimental campaigns, this work focuses on their estimation using a validated deterministic numerical model. The problem is formulated under mixed aleatory-epistemic uncertainty, accounting for limited material data, finite sampling effects, and surrogate modeling errors. We propose a methodology for estimating conservative design quantiles with statistical guarantees under mixed uncertainties. The proposed method leverages importance sampling and control variates to achieve accurate and efficient estimates within a fixed computational budget. One key point is the surrogate model's role solely as a variance reduction device, which guarantees unbiased and consistent quantile estimation. By explicitly integrating all sources of uncertainty, the proposed framework provides a numerical alternative to estimate A-basis and B-Basis. Furthermore, Sobol-based sensitivity indices are obtained at no additional cost, offering insight into the dominant epistemic sources. Numerical experiments on structural models demonstrate the method's reliability and computational efficiency. In particular, the application to large-scale industrial simulations confirms its suitability for aerospace certification workflows and highlights its relevance for real world engineering environments.

Non-probability data sources are increasingly considered in small area estimation, but inverse probability weighting (IPW) gives model-dependent domain estimators whose reliability may vary substantially across domains. Standard Fay-Herriot (FH) smoothing borrows strength across domains, yet it uses the supplied area-level variance estimates as if they fully described the uncertainty of the input estimators. This can be misleading when some domains have weak coverage, unstable weights, or poor auxiliary balance, since these features may indicate selection-bias risk not captured by the estimated variance alone. We propose a diagnostics-guided variance-inflated FH estimator for finite-population domain totals. The method starts from calibrated IPW domain estimators, summarizes their reliability through a small set of domain diagnostics, and introduces a mixture variance-inflation component in the FH observation equation. Domains whose diagnostics indicate weaker IPW information are thereby smoothed more strongly toward the area-level regression mean. A truth-known validation based on a pseudo-real population of Lithuanian business enterprises shows a substantial reduction in estimation error relative to calibrated IPW.

To enable a numerical handling of uncertainties in composite structures, this work presents a stochastic finite-element framework aimed at improving the reliability assessment of aerospace composites, with particular attention to stiffener debonding. By representing interface variability between laminate parts with spatially correlated random fields, the method aims at considering scattering effect at a higher scale of simulation and testing. A parametric study carried out on standardized Mode I and Mode II fracture tests reveals that the correlation length is the primary driver of observed variability, while the regularity of the covariance kernel has only a marginal impact. To guarantee industrial relevance, we demonstrate that this key parameter can be extracted from experimental fracture data using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. The proposed methodology therefore offers a robust route to high-fidelity virtual testing and to the predictive management of uncertainties in the design of damage-tolerant composite airframes.

Donald Trump won the 2024 US Presidential Election despite polls predicting a Democratic lead, echoing the polling miss in 2016. Using the data defect correlation framework, we revisit the 60,000-respondent Cooperative Election Study and find that non-response bias for Trump voters persists on the same order of magnitude ($ρ=-0.0030$ vs $-0.0045$ in 2016) even under sample-matching to the US adult population. We additionally find evidence of positive response bias for Harris voters after adjusting for turnout. Consistent with findings in 2016, polling errors scale with state population size, and larger samples produce greater departures from conventional confidence intervals, with reductions of effective sample size exceeding 99% in the largest states. We propose a pre-election bias correction estimator informed by historical data defect correlations and turnout rates that decreases RMSE from 0.13 to 0.05 using only prior election data, comparable to post-election weighting (RMSE 0.09).

The monomial parameterization of finite-memory Volterra identification is ill-conditioned under non-Gaussian input, and the Wiener--Hermite expansion removes this ill-conditioning only for Gaussian white-noise input. We construct the distribution-matched Volterra--Wiener--Kunchenko (VWK) basis by oriented Gram--Schmidt orthogonalization of monomials in $L^2(P)$ and use it as an arbitrary-polynomial-chaos coordinate system for finite-memory Volterra identification from data, following the generalized polynomial chaos of Xiu and Karniadakis (2002) and the data-driven arbitrary polynomial chaos of Oladyshkin and Nowak (2012). The basis itself is classical; the contribution is the Volterra-estimation reading. First, an order-2 misspecification-penalty theorem shows that a self-normalized diagonal estimator in the variance-matched Gaussian basis incurs an excess $L^2(P)$ risk governed by the skew coefficient $δ=μ_3/σ^2$, vanishing exactly for symmetric inputs. Second, conditioning experiments separate the constructional fact that the population matched Gram is the identity from the finite-sample design Gram: at $n=2000$, the centered-exponential empirical VWK Gram remains far better conditioned than the power Gram, although it degrades with degree. Third, a machine-checked Lean 4 proof establishes the Binomial$(N,p)$ Krawtchouk row for arbitrary $N$. Full least squares over a fixed span is basis-invariant, so VWK stabilizes diagonal cross-correlation and regularized coordinate fits rather than claiming universal prediction superiority. The analysis is moment-based, finite-memory, and restricted to product input laws.