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2606.06732 2026-06-08 eess.SP 新提交

Angular Sector-Based Sparse Array Design for Adaptive Beamforming Using Deep Learning

基于深度学习的角扇区稀疏阵列设计用于自适应波束成形

John Kobak, Ethan Atiyeh, Syed A Hamza

AI总结 提出一种基于深度学习的稀疏阵列设计框架,通过角扇区分类策略和CNN/ResNet50实现高精度阵列选择,SINR偏差低于1%。

Comments Presented at the IEEE Radar Conference 2026

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AI中文摘要

高效的稀疏阵列可重构性对于动态射频环境中的认知感知至关重要,其中快速干扰变化需要适应性和稳定性。本文提出一个框架,用于设计在宽角扇区上优化的稀疏阵列,实现接近最优的波束成形,从而在干扰角度范围内最大化信号与干扰加噪声比(SINR)。计算候选配置的完整数据相关矩阵,并应用基于角扇区的类别缩减策略合并由相同配置主导的相邻扇区,得到56个代表性类别。通过受控的上采样和下采样生成四个数据集变体,包括高样本数和低样本数、平衡和不平衡数据集,以系统评估数据集大小和类别分布对神经网络性能的影响。使用这些数据集训练和评估轻量级卷积神经网络(CNN)和更深的ResNet 50架构。结果表明,分类准确率高,ResNet 50达到97.3%,而大多数类别的SINR偏差保持在1%以下,即使对于接近法线的挑战性干扰角度,偏差也低于5%。所提出的方法实现了鲁棒的稀疏阵列选择,保持了强大的SINR性能,减少了不必要的重配置,并为实时认知感知和自适应干扰缓解提供了有效框架。

英文摘要

Efficient sparse array reconfigurability is essential for cognitive sensing in dynamic radio frequency environments, where rapid interference variations require both adaptability and stability. This work presents a framework for designing sparse arrays optimized over broad angular sectors, enabling near-optimal beamforming that maximizes the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) across a range of interferer angles. Full data correlation matrices are computed for candidate configurations, and an angular-sector-based class reduction strategy is applied to merge adjacent sectors dominated by the same configuration, resulting in 56 representative classes. Controlled up- and down-sampling produce four dataset variants involving, high and low sample count, balanced and unbalanced datasets, to systematically evaluate the effects of dataset size and class distribution on neural network performance. A lightweight convolutional neural network (CNN) and a deeper ResNet 50 architecture are trained and evaluated using these datasets. Results demonstrate high classification accuracy, with ResNet 50 achieving up to 97.3%, while SINR deviations remain below 1% for most classes and below 5% even for challenging interference angles near broadside. The proposed approach enables robust sparse array selection, maintains strong SINR performance, reduces unnecessary reconfigurations, and provides an effective framework for real-time cognitive sensing and adaptive interference mitigation.

2606.06723 2026-06-08 eess.SP 新提交

Deep Learning Based Sparse Array Design with Pre-Steering for Adaptive Beamforming

基于预导向的深度学习稀疏阵列设计用于自适应波束形成

Ian Straub, Syed A Hamza

AI总结 提出利用卷积神经网络学习稀疏阵列配置,通过预导向策略避免针对每个源角度重新训练,实现快速重配置并最大化信干噪比,在动态环境中达到90%以上测试精度。

Comments Accepted for presentation at the IEEE Radar Conference 2026

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AI中文摘要

本文研究了使用卷积神经网络(CNN)学习稀疏阵列配置,在变化的源和干扰角度下实现接近最优的波束形成。与传统的或基于凸优化的算法不同,所提出的深度学习方法能够在高度动态的传播环境中快速重配置稀疏阵列。本文考虑单个期望源和单个干扰信号位于任意角度,分析了固定和变化期望源方向两种情况。为避免针对每个可能的源角度重新训练,引入了阵列预导向策略,即网络仅在侧射方向训练,而测试输入被预导向以对齐侧射方向。为考虑实际不完美性,研究了预导向误差的影响,并采用了鲁棒的误差增强训练。该方法在训练过程中系统地引入小的、结构化的预导向扰动,使网络即使在角度不确定下也能保持高分类精度并最大化信干噪比(SINR)。结果表明,所提出的方法在广泛的源和干扰角度范围内实现了超过90%的测试精度,突显了其在动态环境中实时、鲁棒稀疏阵列配置的潜力。

英文摘要

This paper investigates the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for learning sparse array configurations that achieve near-optimal beamforming under varying source and interference angles. Unlike conventional or convex optimization based algorithms, the proposed deep learning approach enables rapid reconfiguration of sparse arrays in highly dynamic propagation environments. The paper considers a single desired source and a single interference signal at arbitrary angles, analyzing scenarios with both fixed and varying desired source directions. To avoid retraining for each possible source angle, an array pre-steering strategy is introduced, whereby the network is trained only at broadside, while test inputs are pre-steered to align with the broadside direction. To account for practical imperfections, the effect of pre-steering errors is examined, and a robust error-augmented training is adopted. The approach systematically incorporates small, structured pre-steering perturbations during training, enabling the network to maintain high classification accuracy and maximize the signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) even under angular uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves over 90% test accuracy across wide ranges of source and interference angles, highlighting its potential for real-time, robust sparse array configuration in dynamic environments.

2606.06672 2026-06-08 eess.SP 新提交

Variational Bayes Estimation for Affine-Precoded Superimposed Pilots in Partially Connected Dual-Wideband Tera-Hertz MU-MIMO Systems

部分连接双宽带太赫兹MU-MIMO系统中仿射预编码叠加导频的变分贝叶斯估计

Abhisha Garg, Suraj Srivastava, Aditya K. Jagannatham

AI总结 针对部分连接双宽带太赫兹MU-MIMO系统,提出两种仿射预编码模型,利用叠加导频和变分贝叶斯推断实现联合信道估计与稀疏结构学习,并进行了性能权衡分析。

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AI中文摘要

本工作构思了两种基于仿射预编码的系统模型:联合信道估计的公共预编码(CP-JCE)和用于解耦信道估计的用户特定预编码(USPDCE)。考虑到受双宽带影响的部分连接架构,我们通过结合吸收、反射和自由空间损耗,严格建模了每个用户对应子阵列的太赫兹(THz)多输入多输出(MIMO)信道。接下来,为了解决传统基于导频的信道估计带来的显著带宽开销,我们采用了叠加导频。在此基础上,我们构建了一个结构化稀疏信道模型,并开发了一种变分贝叶斯推断算法,该算法通过超参数推断联合估计信道系数并学习底层稀疏结构,从而在严重的模型不确定性下实现鲁棒且高精度的叠加导频信道估计。最后,我们比较了两种系统的结果,并提供了它们之间的权衡分析。

英文摘要

This work conceives two affine precoding based system models, common precoding with joint channel estimation (CP-JCE) and user-specific precoding for decoupled channel estimation (USPDCE). Considering a dual-wideband effected partially connected architecture, we rigorously model the terahertz (THz) multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel for each subarray corresponding to each user by incorporating the absorption, reflection, and freespace losses. Next, to address the significant bandwidth overhead associated with conventional pilot-based channel estimation, we employ superimposed pilots. Building on this, we formulate a structured sparse channel model and develop a variational Bayesian inference algorithm that jointly estimates the channel coefficients and learns the underlying sparsity structure through hyperparameter inference, thereby enabling robust and high-precision superimposed pilotbased channel estimation under severe model uncertainty. Lastly, we compare our results for both systems and provide a trade-off analysis between them.

2606.06640 2026-06-08 eess.SP 新提交

SEMIKHORN: Globally balanced affinities for mmWave Localization in MU mMIMO systems

SEMIKHORN:用于MU mMIMO系统中毫米波定位的全局平衡亲和度

Abhisha Garg, Raghav Shukla, Suraj Srivastava, Aditya K. Jagannatham

AI总结 提出SEMIKHORN框架,利用t-SNEkhorn的全局平衡相似性进行半监督信道图构建,通过融合分布式基站的局部不相似矩阵实现毫米波定位,在模拟环境中以少于15%的标记样本达到6.86%的平均定位误差。

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AI中文摘要

本工作提出了SEMIKHORN,一种用于毫米波定位的半监督信道图(CC)框架,它利用t-SNEkhorn——t分布随机邻域嵌入(t-SNE)的双随机变体,该变体利用熵最优传输来构建成对相似性。与标准t-SNE(对每个数据点独立归一化亲和度)不同,t-SNEkhorn生成全局平衡的相似性,确保一致的邻域表示。我们考虑配备多天线的分布式基站(BS)的无线网络,每个基站从信道状态信息(CSI)构建局部不相似矩阵。然后将这些局部不相似矩阵融合以获得单个全局不相似矩阵,通过流形学习处理,将用户嵌入到几何地图上。在模拟室外环境中评估性能,并采用贝叶斯优化对框架超参数进行优化,以最小化平均定位误差(MLE)。实验结果表明,所提出的框架在半径100m的圆形区域内实现了6.86%的MLE,所需标记CSI样本少于15%。

英文摘要

This work conceives SEMIKHORN, a semisupervised channel charting (CC) framework for mmWave localization, which leverages t-SNEkhorn, a doubly stochastic variant of t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) that utilizes entropic optimal transport to construct pairwise similarities. Unlike standard t-SNE, which normalizes affinities independently for each data point, t-SNEkhorn generates globally balanced similarities ensuring consistent neighborhood representation. We consider wireless networks with distributed base stations (BSs) equipped with multiple antennas, where each BS constructs a local dissimilarity matrix from the channel state information (CSI). These local dissimilarity matrices are then fused to obtain a single global dissimilarity matrix, which is processed through manifold learning to embed users onto a geometric map. The performance is evaluated in a simulated outdoor environment, and Bayesian optimization is employed on the framework hyperparameters to minimize the mean localization error (MLE). Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves an MLE of 6.86% in a circular vicinity of radius 100m, requiring less than 15% of labeled CSI samples.

2606.06512 2026-06-08 eess.IV 新提交

Dilated Symmetric Difference for Binary Image Comparison

二值图像比较的膨胀对称差

Sharon Urieli

AI总结 提出膨胀对称差算子,用于在残差对齐误差有界时有效检测二值图像差异。

Comments 4 pages, 4 figures. Also archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20329139

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AI中文摘要

两个二值图像的比较用数学形态学来表述。引入了一个新算子,即膨胀对称差。结果表明,只要残差对齐误差在指定范围内,膨胀对称差就能有效检测二值图像之间的差异。

英文摘要

The comparison of two binary images is formulated in terms of mathematical morphology. A new operator, the dilated symmetric difference, is introduced. It is shown that the dilated symmetric difference effectively detects differences between binary images, provided that the residual alignment error is within specified bounds.

2606.07466 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Covariance-Adaptive Residualization and Stagewise Calibration for Dependent Multiple Testing

协方差自适应残差化与分步校准用于相依多重检验

Prasenjit Ghosh, Arijit Chakrabarti

AI总结 针对任意协方差相依下的多元高斯均值同时假设检验问题,提出一种结合协方差自适应残差化与广义分步临界常数的分步校准程序,在降低计算复杂度的同时实现更优的信号恢复和错误控制。

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AI中文摘要

本文研究在任意协方差相依下多元高斯均值的同步假设检验。基于Cohen等人(2009)的最大残差向下(MRD)程序,我们探索了一种基于Gavrilov等人(2009)的广义分步临界常数的新校准策略。所得程序保留了MRD的协方差自适应残差化机制,同时将原始模型依赖的阈值设定替换为简单的分步校准规则。由于所提程序属于Ghosh和Chakrabarti(2026)研究的单调残差基分步程序类,其可容许性直接由其理论得出。我们还推导了MRD残差统计量的替代表示,将所有活动残差通过单个活动精度矩阵表达,大幅降低了计算复杂度。在广泛相依结构下的模拟研究表明,所提方法通常比几种广泛使用的边际检验程序获得更低的归一化误分类风险。在几种结构化相依模型下,该程序还表现出强大的信号恢复能力,实现了接近名义水平的错误发现率、极小的错误非发现率、接近1的功效以及接近预期真实信号数的平均拒绝数。这些发现提供了经验证据,表明协方差自适应残差化和分步校准在相依多重检验中可能以高度有利的方式相互作用。

英文摘要

In this paper, we study simultaneous hypothesis testing for multivariate Gaussian means under arbitrary covariance dependence. Building on the Maximum Residual Down (MRD) procedure of Cohen et al. (2009), we investigate a new calibration strategy based on the generalized step-down critical constants of Gavrilov et al. (2009). The resulting procedure retains the covariance-adaptive residualization mechanism of MRD while replacing the original model-dependent threshold specification with a simple stagewise calibration rule. Since the proposed procedure belongs to the class of monotone residual-based step-down procedures studied by Ghosh and Chakrabarti (2026), its admissibility follows directly from their theory. We also derive alternative representations of the MRD residual statistics that express all active residuals through a single active precision matrix, substantially reducing computational complexity. Simulation studies across a broad range of dependence structures show that the proposed methodology often achieves a lower normalized misclassification risk than several widely used marginal testing procedures. Under several structured dependence models, the procedure also exhibits strong signal-recovery behavior, attaining false discovery rates near the nominal level, extremely small false non-discovery rates, powers approaching one, and average numbers of rejections close to the expected number of true signals. These findings provide empirical evidence that covariance-adaptive residualization and stagewise calibration may interact in a highly favorable manner for dependent multiple testing.

2606.07447 2026-06-08 stat.ME math.ST stat.TH 新提交

Community Detection on a Randomly Growing Network

随机增长网络上的社区检测

Jianxiang Wang, Min Xu

AI总结 针对非随机块模型的马尔可夫随机网络,提出两阶段算法,先分类高度节点再扩展社区标签,理论证明无法一致恢复所有节点但可恢复中心子集。

Comments 69 pages, 16 figures, 7 tables

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AI中文摘要

我们在随机块模型框架之外研究马尔可夫随机网络上的社区检测。具体来说,我们考虑一个随机网络增长过程,该过程生成$K$个独立的优先连接树,并通过Erdős–Rényi边连接它们,使得每棵树代表一个社区,每个节点继承其所属树的标签。该模型能够产生许多在SBM下不太可能出现的真实网络特征,例如幂律度分布以及链和枢纽的存在。仅给定最终图,对增长过程一无所知,我们试图恢复节点的未观察到的社区成员身份。我们首先证明任何算法都无法一致地恢复所有节点的社区标签。然而,我们设计了算法,这些算法能够证明地恢复中心节点子集的社区标签,对于节点中心性的几种不同概念,例如到达时间或度数。我们的过程包括两个阶段,在第一阶段,我们对高度节点进行分类,然后在第二阶段,将社区分配扩展到剩余顶点。数值实验和合著网络上的真实数据应用证明了我们提出方法的有效性。

英文摘要

We study community detection on Markovian random networks outside of the Stochastic Block Model (SBM) framework. Specifically, we consider a random network growth process which generates $K$ separate preferential attachment trees and connects them with Erdős--Rényi edges, so that each tree represents a community and each node inherits the label of the tree to which it belongs. This model is able to produce many features of real world networks that are improbable under SBM, such as power law degree distribution and the existence of chains and hubs. Given only the final graph, without any knowledge of the growth process, we seek to recover the unobserved community membership of the nodes. We first prove that it is impossible for any algorithm to consistently recover the community label of all the nodes. However, we design algorithms which are provably able to recover the community labels of subsets of central nodes, for several different notions of node centrality such as arrival time or degree. Our procedure consists of two stages where, in the first stage, we classify high degree nodes and then, in the second stage, extend the community assignments to the remaining vertices. Numerical experiments and a real data application on a coauthorship network demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

2606.07406 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Deriving the Variance-Minimizing Design for Standard Addition via c-Optimality

通过c-最优性推导标准加入法的方差最小化设计

Gerhard Gössler, Vera Hofer, Walter Goessler

AI总结 本文通过c-最优性理论,针对线性响应下测量误差非递减的情况,证明了标准加入法的最优设计为两点设计,并探讨了测量分配、浓度范围及加权回归的影响。

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AI中文摘要

关于标准加入法最优设计的知识似乎分散在文献中,并且至少部分仅存在于数学文献中,对于不熟悉设计最优性理论的读者来说不易快速获取。因此,本工作的想法是总结分析文献中已有的内容,并在需要时将最优性理论的相关结果应用于标准加入法的特殊情况。研究表明,对于非递减的测量误差(例如,随着分析物浓度增加,误差恒定或线性或二次增加),在线性响应的情况下,最优设计是两点设计,无论测量误差方差的具体行为如何。此外,证明测量的最优分配取决于具体设置,这意味着测量的最优分布可能显著偏离50:50的比例。还研究了范围(即最大添加浓度)如何影响结果。最后但同样重要的是,讨论了加权回归的应用问题,并表明,与使用两个以上加标浓度的设计相比,当使用两点设计时,无需加权即可实现最优结果。虽然重点在于浓度估计的精度,但也研究了偏差的影响。

英文摘要

Knowledge about optimal designs for standard addition seems to be scattered among literature and is also, at least partially, only available in mathematical literature that is not quickly accessible for readers not skilled in the field of design optimality theory. Therefore, the idea for this work was to summarize what is already available in analytical literature and to apply the respective results from optimality theory, where needed, to the special case of standard addition. It is shown, for measurement errors that are non-decreasing, e.g., are constant or increase linearly or quadratically with increasing analyte concentration, that the optimal design in the case of a linear response is a two-point design irrespective of the particular behavior of measurement error variance. In addition, it is demonstrated that the optimal allocation of measurements depends on the concrete setting, which means that the optimal distribution of measurements may deviate significantly from a 50:50 ratio. It is also investigated how the range, i.e., the largest added concentration influences the result. Last but not least, also the question of applying weighted regression is discussed and it is shown, that, in contrast to designs using more than two spiked concentrations, no weighting is necessary to achieve optimal results, when a two-point design is used. While the focus lies on the precision of the concentration estimate also the implications for the bias are investigated.

2606.07373 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Learning Collapsed Patterns in Compositional Data: A Bayesian Heterogeneous Relative-Shift Approach

成分数据中的塌陷模式学习:一种贝叶斯异质性相对位移方法

Maoran Xu, Guanyu Hu

AI总结 提出贝叶斯异质性相对位移回归模型,联合学习潜在聚类和简约效应结构,通过投影收缩先验和有限混合先验实现,并开发了嵌入确定性替代塌缩算子的混合MCMC算法。

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AI中文摘要

相对位移回归通过量化当质量从一个成分重新分配到另一个成分时响应如何变化,为建模成分协变量提供了一个原则性框架。然而,许多新兴的成分数据问题超出了这一经典设置,涉及高维预测变量和跨潜在子群体变化的回归效应。这种复杂性对现有方法构成了双重挑战:恢复潜在聚类结构,同时在每个聚类内实现降维。我们提出了一种贝叶斯异质性相对位移回归模型,该模型联合学习潜在聚类和简约效应结构。在方法论上,我们将基于投影的收缩先验(在可识别对比上诱导混合成分内的精确系数绑定)与有限混合先验(推断聚类数量)相结合。在计算上,我们开发了一种可扩展的混合MCMC算法,该算法在NUTS内嵌入了一个确定性替代塌缩算子。在理论上,我们建立了潜在划分和聚类特定效应结构的后验一致性。模拟证实了准确的恢复和强大的预测性能,对跨国宏观经济数据和空间转录组学的应用证明了该方法的可解释性和实用性。

英文摘要

Relative-shift regression provides a principled framework for modeling compositional covariates by quantifying how the response changes when mass is reallocated from one component to another. Yet many emerging compositional data problems extend beyond this classical setting, involving high-dimensional predictors and regression effects that vary across latent subpopulations. This complexity poses a dual challenge unmet by existing methods: recovering latent cluster structure while simultaneously achieving dimension reduction within each cluster. We propose a Bayesian heterogeneous relative-shift regression model that jointly learns latent clusters and parsimonious effect structures. Methodologically, we combine a projection-based shrinkage prior on identifiable contrasts, which induces exact coefficient ties within mixture components, with a mixture of finite mixtures prior that infers the number of clusters. Computationally, we develop a scalable hybrid MCMC algorithm that embeds a deterministic surrogate collapse operator within NUTS. Theoretically, we establish posterior consistency for both the latent partition and cluster-specific effect structures. Simulations confirm accurate recovery and strong predictive performance, and applications to cross-country macroeconomic data and spatial transcriptomics demonstrate the method's interpretability and practical utility.

2606.07364 2026-06-08 stat.AP 新提交

S2A3: Thompson Sampling and Stochastic Exposure Control for High-Stakes CATs

S2A3: 高风险CAT的汤普森采样与随机曝光控制

James Sharpnack, Alexander Tsigler, J. R. Lockwood, Steven Nydick, Alina A. von Davier

AI总结 提出S2A3框架,通过汤普森采样优化项目选择、软评分处理不确定性、随机曝光控制平衡效率与安全,在高风险自适应测试中实现快速项目校准并保持评分可靠性。

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AI中文摘要

高风险计算机自适应测试(CAT)需要持续供应已校准的项目,然而传统的项目试测过程缓慢、昂贵且操作风险高。我们引入了S2A3框架——软评分(S2)与自适应自适应管理(A3)——将项目校准和测试管理统一为单一的在线过程。汤普森采样通过从每个项目的后验分布中抽取临时参数,并选择最大化期望Fisher信息的项目来增强项目选择,自然地将不确定项目分配给信息量大的考生,同时保持测量精度。软评分整合了参数不确定性,使得未完全校准的项目对能力估计产生适当减弱的影响。Sympson-Hetter曝光控制的随机变体通过可调温度参数和项目特定权重,平衡测量效率与题库安全。我们在多邻国英语测试的“是/否词汇”和“语境词汇”任务上验证了S2A3,结果表明即使在冷启动项目占活跃题库很大比例的情况下,也能实现快速项目校准并保持评分可靠性。

英文摘要

High-stakes computerized adaptive tests (CATs) require a continuous supply of calibrated items, yet traditional item piloting is slow, expensive, and operationally hazardous. We introduce the S2A3 framework -- Soft Scoring (S2) and Adaptive Adaptive Administration (A3) -- which unifies item calibration and test administration into a single online process. Thompson sampling enhances item selection by drawing provisional parameters from each item's posterior distribution and selecting the item maximizing expected Fisher information, naturally routing uncertain items to informative test-takers while maintaining measurement precision. Soft scoring integrates over parameter uncertainty so that incompletely calibrated items exert appropriately attenuated influence on ability estimates. A stochastic variant of Sympson-Hetter exposure control balances measurement efficiency against bank security via a tunable temperature parameter and item-specific weights. We validate S2A3 on Yes/No Vocabulary and Vocabulary-in-Context tasks from the Duolingo English Test, demonstrating rapid item calibration and preserved scoring reliability even when cold-start items constitute a significant fraction of the active pool.

2606.07213 2026-06-08 stat.ME math.ST stat.ML stat.TH 新提交

Principal Component Analysis for Multivariate Extremes

多元极值的主成分分析

Dan Cooley, Anne Sabourin, Troy Wixson

AI总结 提出一种针对多元极值数据的降维方法,通过主成分分析保留极值相关信息,解决高维极值分析中的维度灾难问题。

Comments Chapter 11 in "Handbook of of Statistic of Extremes", edited by Miguel de Carvalho, Raphaël Huser, Philippe Naveau, and Brian Reich

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AI中文摘要

本章探讨在保留与多元极值分析相关的关键信息的同时,降低数据维度的各种方法。

英文摘要

This chapter explores ways to reduce the dimensionality of the data while preserving key information relevant to the analysis of multivariate extreme values.

2606.07174 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

One-step Outcome Imputation: An Alternative to Multiple Imputation

一步结果插补:多重插补的替代方案

Andreas Nordland, Klaus K. Holst, David Redek, Christian B. Pipper, Aske T. Iversen

AI总结 针对随机对照试验中的缺失结局,提出一种基于影响函数的一步估计方法,避免多重插补中Rubin规则的标准误估计失效问题,并简化计算。

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AI中文摘要

随机对照试验中的缺失结局通常通过多重插补(MI)处理。Rubin规则常用于估计标准误,但对于某些常用程序(如基于参考的插补)可能无法提供有效的标准误估计。我们提出一种一步替代方案,通过明确目标给定插补模型所隐含的处理效应,并利用其影响函数构建该处理效应的有效一步估计量。与Rubin规则不同,该方法产生渐近有效的推断。此外,所提方法规避了MI的随机成分和计算负担。我们通过一系列插补模型(包括基于参考的插补和依赖于并发事件的插补)的示例来说明该方法。

英文摘要

Missing outcomes in randomized controlled trials are often handled by multiple imputation (MI). Rubin's rules are routinely used to estimate standard errors but can fail to provide valid standard error estimates for some commonly used procedures, such as reference-based imputation. We propose a one-step alternative by explicitly targeting the treatment effect implied by a given imputation model and constructing an efficient one-step estimator for that treatment effect via its influence function. Unlike Rubin's rules, this approach yields asymptotically valid inference. Moreover, the proposed method circumvents the stochastic component and computational burden of MI. We illustrate the approach with examples spanning a range of imputation models, including reference-based imputation and intercurrent-event-dependent imputation.

2606.07169 2026-06-08 stat.ME math.ST stat.TH 新提交

When can a posterior predictive check identify the learning rate? Exact degeneracy in Gaussian models and implications for Generalised Bayesian Inerence

后验预测检查何时能识别学习率?高斯模型中的精确退化及其对广义贝叶斯推断的影响

Nam Anh Le

AI总结 本文通过精确有限样本分析,揭示了在高斯线性模型中,基于后验预测检查的学习率选择器存在退化现象,即p值不依赖于学习率或数据,导致选择器失效,并提出了数据无关的预筛选诊断方法。

Comments 6 pages, 4 figures

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AI中文摘要

广义贝叶斯推断通过学习率$\eta$对似然进行退火以缓解模型误设定,而$\eta$的选择至关重要。Zafar和Nicholls (2024) 提出通过后验预测检查(PPC)选择$\eta$:选择使对数似然PPC $p$值不被拒绝的最小$\eta$。本文给出了该选择器在高斯线性模型上的精确有限样本分析。在方差已知且使用平坦先验时,对于每个$\eta$,PPC $p$值等于$P(\chi^2_n > \mathrm{RSS}/\sigma_0^2)$,因此选择器对$\eta$不变;在方差误设定下,它是双侧非识别的。在方差未知且使用参考先验时,$p$值仅依赖于$(n,d,\eta)$,而不依赖于实际数据或数据生成过程。因此,选择器的输出在观察到任何数据之前就已固定,通常会坍缩到最小的网格值,这会导致过度退火并相对于留出选择扩大预测区间。该现象是高斯尺度-位置族和参考先验特有的枢轴性质;在信息先验下消失。这些结果界定了选择器的适用范围,识别了它无法识别学习率的典型类别,并激发了一种廉价、无数据的预筛选诊断方法。

英文摘要

Generalised Bayesian inference tempers the likelihood by a learning rate $η$ to mitigate model misspecification, and the choice of $η$ is consequential. Zafar and Nicholls (2024) proposed selecting $η$ by a posterior predictive check (PPC): one chooses the smallest $η$ at which a log-likelihood PPC $p$-value is not rejected. An exact, finite-sample analysis of this selector on the Gaussian linear model is given. With known variance and a flat prior, the PPC $p$-value equals $P(χ^2_n > \mathrm{RSS}/σ_0^2)$ for every $η$, so the selector is $η$-invariant; under variance misspecification it is two-sided non-identifying. With unknown variance and the reference prior, the $p$-value depends only on $(n,d,η)$ and not on the realised data or the data-generating process. Consequently the selector's output is fixed before any data are seen, typically collapsing to the smallest grid value, which over-tempers and inflates predictive intervals relative to held-out selection. The phenomenon is a pivotality property specific to the Gaussian scale--location family and the reference prior; it disappears under informative priors. These results delineate the selector's scope, identify a canonical class on which it cannot identify the learning rate, and motivate a cheap, data-free pre-screening diagnostic.

2606.07062 2026-06-08 stat.CO cs.MS 新提交

CATEKAPPA: An R Shiny Application for Design and Analysis of Consistency Tests Based on the Kappa Statistic for Categorical Responses

CATEKAPPA:基于Kappa统计量进行分类响应一致性检验设计与分析的R Shiny应用

Zheng Gai, Li Xincheng, Jiang Wangyingjie, Zhao Panwei

AI总结 针对分类数据一致性检验中样本量确定和Kappa系数计算两大难题,开发了集成样本量规划与一致性分析的R Shiny应用CATEKAPPA,支持Cohen's、Fleiss'和Light's Kappa,并提供自动解释。

Comments 10 pages, 4 figures; This open-source R package CATEKAPPA is available on CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=catekappa, source code repository is hosted at https://github.com/satellite837/catekappa. Manuscript planned for submission to Journal of Statistical Software (JSS). Supplementary R package source code uploaded as ancillary file

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AI中文摘要

Kappa统计量是分类数据中衡量评估者间一致性的最广泛使用的指标。尽管其流行,应用研究人员常遇到两大障碍:(i) 确定达到给定功效下期望一致性水平所需的样本量,以及(ii) 计算合适的Kappa系数并进行正确解释。现有的R包如irr和kappaSize提供了这些功能,但需要编程技能且缺乏集成的用户友好界面。我们提出CATEKAPPA,一个R包,通过将样本量规划(通过kappaSize)和一致性分析(通过irr)结合到单个基于Shiny的Web应用中,弥合了这一差距。该包支持两位评估者的Cohen's kappa、三位或更多评估者的Fleiss' kappa以及Light's kappa,并使用Landis & Koch量表提供自动解释。用户可以启动交互式图形界面或使用命令行函数进行脚本编写。该包在CRAN上免费提供。

英文摘要

The kappa statistic is the most widely used measure of inter-rater agreement for categorical data. Despite its popularity, applied researchers often encounter two major hurdles: (i) determining the sample size required to achieve a desired level of agreement with given power, and (ii) computing appropriate kappa coefficients with proper interpretation. Existing R packages such as irr and kappaSize provide these functionalities but require programming skills and lack an integrated, user-friendly interface. We present CATEKAPPA, an R package that bridges this gap by combining sample size planning (via kappaSize) and agreement analysis (via irr) into a single Shiny-based web application. The package supports Cohen's kappa for two raters, Fleiss' kappa for three or more raters, and Light's kappa, and provides automatic interpretation using the Landis & Koch scale. Users can either launch an interactive graphical interface or use command-line functions for scripting. The package is freely available on CRAN.

2606.07052 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Influence of continuous predictor modelling methods on prediction stability in clinical prediction model development: an empirical comparison using real clinical data

连续预测因子建模方法对临床预测模型开发中预测稳定性的影响:基于真实临床数据的实证比较

Phichayut Phinyo, Pakpoom Wongyikul, Noraworn Jirattikanwong, Natthanaphop Isaradech, Wuttipat Kiratipaisarl, Suppachai Lawanaskol, Noppadon Seesuwan, Wachiranun Sirikul

AI总结 本研究利用真实临床数据比较六种连续变量建模方法(二分法、三分法、线性项、二次项、多变量分数多项式、极端梯度提升)对预测稳定性的影响,发现线性项在较小样本中更稳定,而复杂方法需要更大样本。

Comments 30 pages

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AI中文摘要

背景与目的:预测稳定性在可靠临床预测模型开发中日益受到重视,但连续预测因子建模选择的影响尚不明确。本研究探讨了连续预测因子建模方法对预测稳定性的影响。方法:我们使用包含19,418名急诊患者的真实临床数据集,创建了从437到8,739名患者的五种样本量场景。比较了六种方法:中位数二分法(DIC)、三分法(TER)、线性项(LIN)、二次项(QUA)、多变量分数多项式(MFP)和极端梯度提升(XGB)。使用基于bootstrap的框架评估预测稳定性。通过内部验证估计了经乐观校正的AUC和校准度。当至少90%的个体预测的平均绝对预测误差(MAPE)<=5%时,认为方法稳定。结果:稳定性随样本量增加而变化,且因方法而异。在n=437时,没有方法达到稳定性标准;LIN最稳定,其次是DIC。在n=874时,DIC和LIN实现了稳定预测且校准度相似,尽管DIC的AUC较低。在n=1,748时,QUA达到稳定,而MFP和XGB未达到。在n=3,496和n=8,739时,所有方法均达到稳定。LIN、QUA、MFP和XGB通常比DIC和TER具有更高的AUC,而XGB显示出最高的AUC但持续存在校准偏差。结论:连续预测因子建模方法似乎影响预测稳定性。LIN从基础样本量开始即实现稳定预测,而QUA、MFP和XGB需要更大样本。尽管XGB具有高区分度,但校准问题持续存在。这些发现表明,在较小数据集中,更简单的方法(尤其是LIN)可能提供更稳定的预测。

英文摘要

Background and objective: Prediction stability is increasingly recognised as important for reliable clinical prediction model development, but the effect of continuous predictor modelling choices is unclear. This study examined how approaches to modelling continuous predictors influence prediction stability. Methods: We used a real clinical dataset of 19,418 emergency department patients to create five sample size scenarios ranging from 437 to 8,739 patients. Six methods were compared: dichotomisation at the median (DIC), tertile categorisation (TER), linear terms (LIN), quadratic terms (QUA), multivariable fractional polynomials (MFP), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). Prediction stability was evaluated using a bootstrap-based framework. Optimism-corrected AUC and calibration were estimated through internal validation. A method was considered stable when at least 90% of individual predictions had a mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) <=5%. Results: Stability increased with sample size and varied by method. At n = 437, no method met the stability criterion; LIN was the most stable, followed by DIC. At n = 874, DIC and LIN achieved stable predictions with similar calibration, although DIC had lower AUC. At n = 1,748, QUA achieved stability, whereas MFP and XGB did not. At n = 3,496 and n = 8,739, all methods achieved stability. LIN, QUA, MFP, and XGB generally had higher AUCs than DIC and TER, while XGB showed the highest AUC but persistent miscalibration. Conclusion: Continuous predictor modelling methods appeared to influence prediction stability. LIN achieved stable predictions from the base sample size onwards, whereas QUA, MFP, and XGB required larger samples. Although XGB showed high discrimination, calibration concerns persisted. These findings suggest that, in smaller datasets, simpler approaches, particularly LIN, may provide more stable predictions.

2606.07014 2026-06-08 stat.AP 新提交

Networked Spatial Effects in European Electricity Price Forecasting

欧洲电价预测中的网络空间效应

Sultan Mahmud Chomon, Florian Ziel

AI总结 针对欧洲竞价区高度互联的特点,提出网络时空模型(NSTM),利用度量图映射空间信息覆盖,在39个竞价区的高分辨率流式预测中,该模型优于传统孤立模型,揭示了网络结构在跨市场信息传播中的关键作用。

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AI中文摘要

由于欧洲竞价区通过物理输电线路高度互联,空间影响通过网络在相邻节点间传播。这反映在欧洲竞价区的日前电价中,因为拍卖算法也使用每个竞价区地理边界之外的信息。为了捕捉这种互联如何影响相邻竞价区的电价,我们使用度量图,通过定义良好的邻域度量来映射信息的空间覆盖。我们提出了网络时空模型(NSTM),它将不规则的空间节点映射到有序网络中,从而能够系统地纳入邻域信息。我们在覆盖大部分欧洲电力市场的39个竞价区中,以高分辨率流式预测设置实现了NSTM。该模型利用自回归、跨小时和季节效应,以及燃料和排放价格和基本面的日前预测,作为互联信息来预测每个竞价区的日前价格。本文呈现的一项全欧洲研究表明,NSTM始终优于传统的孤立纯局部模型。本文提供了一个框架,展示了网络结构在跨互联市场传播信息中的关键作用及其对日前电价预测的重大影响。

英文摘要

As European bidding zones are highly interconnected by physical transmission lines, spatial influences propagate across neighboring nodes through a network. It is reflected in the day-ahead electricity prices across European bidding zones, as the auction algorithm also uses information beyond each bidding zone's geographic boundary. To capture how this interconnection affects the electricity prices in neighboring bidding zones, we have used a metric graph to map the spatial coverage of information using a well-defined neighborhood measure. We propose the Networked Spatio-Temporal Model (NSTM), which maps irregular spatial nodes into an ordered network, enabling the systematic incorporation of neighborhood information. We implement the NSTM across 39 bidding zones covering the majority of European electricity markets in a high-resolution, streaming-forecasting setup. The model uses autoregressive, cross-hour, and seasonal effects, along with fuel and emission prices and day-ahead forecasts of fundamentals, as interconnected information to predict the day-ahead prices for each bidding zone. A Europe-wide study presented in this paper shows that the NSTM consistently outperforms traditional island-based pure local models. This paper provides a framework that demonstrates the critical role the networked structure plays in propagating information across interconnected markets and its vast implications for day-ahead electricity price forecasting.

2606.06961 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Causal inference of Plackett-Burman designs in applications

Plackett-Burman设计在应用中的因果推断

Shuchen Chang, Zhi-ming Li

AI总结 针对Plackett-Burman设计的四个应用,提出基于潜在结果的因果推断框架,定义有限总体下的因果效应,给出Neyman估计量及方差协方差估计,并进行Fisher精确检验和区间构造。

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AI中文摘要

受Plackett-Burman(PB)设计的四个应用驱动,本文提出了一个基于潜在结果的因果推断框架。首先,我们在有限总体下定义了PB设计的因果效应。然后,得到了因果效应的Neyman估计量,包括估计的方差和协方差。此外,我们进行了尖锐零假设检验,并使用算法构造了Fisher区间。最后,通过这些应用说明了所提出的方法。

英文摘要

Driven by four applications of Plackett-Burman (PB) designs, this paper proposes a causal inference framework based on potential outcomes. First, we define the causal effects of the PB designs under finite populations. The Neymanian estimator of causal effects is then obtained, including the estimated variance and covariance. Furthermore, we conduct a sharp null-hypothesis test and construct the Fisherian interval using an algorithm. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated through these applications.

2606.06930 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Testing Equality of Conditional Distributions via Generative Models

通过生成模型检验条件分布相等

Hanjia Gao, Linjun Huang, Yun Yang, Xiaofeng Shao

AI总结 提出一种基于生成模型检验两个条件分布是否相等的方法,通过交叉生成对齐协变量,避免密度比估计和高维平滑,并开发了基于RKHS的检验统计量及自举校准算法,理论证明了双重稳健性。

Comments 93 pages, 4 figures

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AI中文摘要

我们研究了利用生成模型检验两个条件分布是否相等的问题。所提出的方法从每个样本中学习一个条件生成器,并利用它在另一个样本中观察到的协变量值生成响应,从而允许直接比较生成响应和观测响应。通过交叉生成对齐协变量,该方法避免了条件密度比估计和高维协变量的局部平滑。该构造的总体版本产生了一个条件差异,在适当的重叠条件下刻画了两个条件分布的相等性,而样本版本则定义了一个检验统计量,该统计量是RKHS索引经验过程的上确界,并采用乘子自举校准。基于交替最大化和核技巧,我们开发了一种计算高效的算法来评估该统计量及其自举模拟。理论上,我们推导了原假设和备择假设下检验统计量的极限分布,证明了自举的有效性和检验的一致性,并表明所提出的过程在条件生成器估计误差方面具有双重稳健性。模拟和实际数据应用表明,所提出的方法对多元响应和高维协变量表现良好。

英文摘要

We study the problem of testing whether two conditional distributions are equal using generative models. The proposed method learns a conditional generator from each sample and uses it to create responses at covariate values observed in the other sample, allowing generated and observed responses to be compared directly. By aligning covariates through cross-generation, the approach avoids conditional density-ratio estimation and local smoothing over high-dimensional covariates. The population version of this construction yields a conditional discrepancy that characterizes equality of the two conditional distributions under suitable overlap conditions, while the sample version leads to a test statistic defined as the supremum of an RKHS-indexed empirical process with multiplier bootstrap calibration. A computationally efficient algorithm for evaluating the statistic and its bootstrap analogue is developed based on alternating maximization and the kernel trick. Theoretically, we derive the limiting distribution of the test statistic under both the null and alternative hypotheses, prove bootstrap validity and consistency of the resulting test, and show that the proposed procedure attains a double-robustness property with respect to conditional generator estimation errors. Simulations and real data applications suggest that the proposed method performs well for multivariate responses and high-dimensional covariates.

2606.06753 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Cluster-Aware Conformal Calibration for Spatio-Temporal Distributional Prediction

面向时空分布预测的聚类感知保形校准

Gooyoung Kim, Chae Young Lim, Wen-Ting Wang, Hao-Yun Huang, Wei-Ying Wu

AI总结 针对DeepKriging在非均匀采样下空间基函数效率低的问题,提出聚类自适应空间基和聚类感知保形校准,提升时空分布预测的覆盖精度和尾部可靠性。

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AI中文摘要

DeepKriging类模型(如时空DeepKriging)通过基函数嵌入和随机梯度学习提高了可扩展性;然而,在高度非均匀采样模式下,固定的规则网格空间基仍然效率低下,往往将容量过度分配给稀疏区域,而对密集簇的分辨不足。为解决这一局限,我们提出了一种DeepKriging的实用扩展,用于可靠的时空分布预测,结合了聚类自适应空间基——其中心和尺度从空间采样密度初始化——以更好地捕捉异质空间采样,以及聚类感知保形校准,该校准在空间簇内确定预测区间宽度(当校准样本不足时使用全局回退)。由此产生的校准流程明确针对空间异质性和局部误校准,实验(包括模拟研究和PM$_{2.5}$数据分析)表明,与全局保形基线相比,在聚类观测模式下覆盖精度和尾部可靠性显著提高。

英文摘要

DeepKriging-style models, such as Spatio-Temporal DeepKriging, improve scalability through basis-function embeddings and stochastic gradient learning; however, fixed regular-grid spatial bases remain inefficient under highly non-uniform sampling patterns, often over-allocating capacity to sparse regions while under-resolving dense clusters. To address this limitation, we propose a practical extension of DeepKriging for reliable spatio-temporal distributional forecasting, incorporating cluster-adaptive spatial bases - whose centers and scales are initialized from {the spatial sampling density} - to better capture heterogeneous spatial sampling, together with cluster-aware conformal calibration that determines prediction-interval widths within spatial clusters (with a global fallback when calibration samples are insufficient). The resulting calibration pipeline explicitly targets spatial heterogeneity and local miscalibration, and experiments, including simulation studies and PM$_{2.5}$ data analysis, demonstrate substantially improved coverage accuracy and tail reliability under clustered observation patterns compared with a global conformal baseline.

2606.06730 2026-06-08 stat.ME 新提交

Bayesian genome-wide clustering and variable selection of transcriptomic data via rank-based mixtures

基于秩混合的转录组数据贝叶斯全基因组聚类与变量选择

Emilie Eliseussen, Haakon Muggerud, Luca Coraggio, Ida Scheel, Thomas Fleischer, Valeria Vitelli

AI总结 提出首个基于秩的模型 lowBM3,扩展贝叶斯 Mallows 模型以联合处理超高维数据中的聚类和变量选择,提供可扩展的贝叶斯框架,并在癌症基因组学应用中展示其有效性。

Comments 60 pages, 25 figures

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AI中文摘要

随着排名数据可用性的增加,对能够处理高维数据集并为所有估计提供不确定性量化的无监督基于秩的推理框架的需求日益增长。基于秩的方法在组学分析中也越来越受欢迎,因为对连续测量进行排序提供了一种处理非正态分布数据的稳健方法。贝叶斯 Mallows 模型(BMM)因其对各种排名数据的适应性以及灵活框架(将聚类级排名聚合与个体级推理相结合)而成为一种有前景的选择。然而,BMM 在超高维设置(如组学分析)中的可扩展性仍然有限。本文通过引入第一个基于秩的模型来解决这一问题,该模型将 BMM 推广到联合处理聚类和变量选择,即低维贝叶斯 Mallows 模型混合(lowBM3)。所提出的方法提供了一种新颖的贝叶斯框架,能够以可扩展的方式同时处理样本异质性、无监督参数估计和模型选择,适用于超高维数据。此外,还引入了一个配套的后处理框架,以提供共识排名和变量选择器的离散后验分布的后验总结。通过模拟研究评估了该方法的性能。该方法在癌症基因组学特征发现中的应用也展示了其实用性,其中对乳腺癌患者获得的 RNA-seq 批量基因表达数据进行了全基因组聚类。

英文摘要

With the increasing availability of ranking data, there has been a growing demand for appropriate unsupervised rank-based inferential frameworks capable of handling high-dimensional datasets and providing uncertainty quantification for all estimates. Rank-based methods have also seen a growing popularity in -omics pipelines, as ranking continuous measurements provides a robust means of handling non-normally distributed data. The Bayesian Mallows model (BMM) has emerged as a promising choice because of its adaptability to various types of ranking data and its flexible framework, integrating cluster-wise rank aggregation with inference at the individual level. However, the scalability of BMM to ultra-high-dimensional settings, such as -omics analyses, has remained limited. The present paper addresses this issue by introducing the first rank-based model generalizing BMM to jointly handle clustering and variable selection, namely the lower-dimensional Bayesian Mallows Model Mixture (lowBM3). The proposed method provides a novel Bayesian framework that simultaneously handles heterogeneity in the sample, unsupervised parameter estimation, and model selection in a scalable manner for ultra-high-dimensional data. Additionally, a companion postprocessing framework is introduced to provide posterior summaries of the discrete posterior distributions of both the consensus ranking and the variable selector. Simulation studies are performed to assess the performance of the method. The usefulness of the method is also shown in an application to signature discovery for cancer genomics, where RNA-seq bulk gene expression data obtained from breast cancer patients are clustered genome-wide.

2606.06699 2026-06-08 stat.ME stat.AP 新提交

Robust inference for cyclic-stress accelerated life tests under interval monitoring with lognormal lifetimes

对数正态寿命区间监测下循环应力加速寿命试验的稳健推断

María Jaenada, Leandro Pardo, Kiran Prajapat

AI总结 针对区间删失的对数正态寿命循环应力加速寿命试验,提出基于加权密度功率散度的稳健估计方法,推导渐近分布并给出置信区间,模拟和实例验证了抗异常值能力。

Comments 35 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables

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AI中文摘要

高可靠性产品通常需要在加速条件下进行测试,以便在可行的时间范围内诱发失效。对于使用寿命涉及两个应力水平之间重复交替的产品,例如汽车空调、电池和航空航天部件,循环应力加速寿命试验(CyALT)提供了比传统加速试验更真实的负载曲线。在实践中,失效通常仅在计划的检查时间记录,导致区间删失计数而非精确寿命。此外,传统的最大似然估计对数据污染敏感,这在工业小样本实验中是一个实际问题。本文针对区间监测下具有对数正态寿命的CyALT模型,开发了稳健的推断程序。通过最小化加权密度功率散度(WDPD)获得稳健估计量,即加权最小密度功率散度估计量(WMDPDE)。我们建立了WMDPDE的渐近分布,推导了影响函数表达式以表征稳健性,并给出了重要寿命特征的渐近和自助法置信区间。模拟研究证实,WMDPDE在干净数据下保持高效率的同时,对异常值提供了实质性保护。通过分析空调可靠性数据集展示了该方法,证明了CyALT框架中稳健推断的实际优势。

英文摘要

Highly reliable products are often tested under accelerated conditions to provoke failures within a feasible timeframe. For products whose service life involves repeated alternation between two stress levels, such as automotive air-conditioners, batteries, and aerospace components, cyclic-stress accelerated life testing (CyALT) provides a more realistic loading profile than conventional accelerated tests. In practice, failures are often recorded only at scheduled inspection times, leading to interval-censored counts rather than exact lifetimes. Moreover, traditional maximum likelihood estimation is sensitive to data contamination, which is a genuine concern in small-sample industrial experiments. This paper develops robust inferential procedures for CyALT models with lognormal lifetimes under interval monitoring. Robust estimators are obtained by minimizing a weighted density power divergence (WDPD), leading to the weighted minimum density power divergence estimator (WMDPDE). We establish the asymptotic distribution of the WMDPDE, derive influence function expressions to characterize the robustness, and present asymptotic and bootstrap confidence intervals for important lifetime characteristics. A simulation study confirms that the WMDPDE provides substantial protection against outliers while retaining high efficiency under clean data. The methodology is illustrated through the analysis of an air-conditioner reliability dataset, demonstrating the practical advantages of robust inference in the CyALT framework.

2606.06670 2026-06-08 stat.AP 新提交

When Should Forecasting Models Be Re-Specified? A Cost-Sensitive Trigger for Adaptive Model-Form Updating

预测模型何时应重新指定?一种成本敏感的触发机制用于自适应模型形式更新

Harrison Katz

AI总结 针对预测系统模型形式更新频率问题,提出基于规范债务的成本敏感触发规则,在保持预测精度的同时降低计算成本和不稳定性,并在M4数据上验证其有效性。

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AI中文摘要

预测系统通常在每个评审周期进行刷新,该刷新通常包含两个不同的操作:估计参数和选择模型形式。最近的证据表明,第二个操作通常是不必要的,因为中间更新策略可以在大致保持预测精度的同时降低计算成本和预测不稳定性。本技术说明探讨了补充性问题:一旦系统采用了减少更新的策略,何时应中断该策略并重新指定模型形式?我们将规范债务定义为针对部署模型形式积累的证据,并利用它构建一个成本敏感的重新指定触发机制。在封闭的离散模型空间中,该触发机制简化为对部署规范的后验概率负对数的阈值。在开放的生产环境中,相同的决策规则可以通过预测得分差距、堆叠权重或校准的监测诊断来运行。固定更新频率是该规则的一个特例,当针对部署形式的证据以恒定速率积累时恢复。我们在500个M4月度序列上说明了这一想法,比较了完全更新、固定模型形式更新频率、仅参数更新以及有上限的自适应得分触发更新,并在有限ETS网格内,根据候选形式的AIC和BIC权重计算了规范债务的信息准则类似物。在该示例中,最佳的有上限自适应策略在精度上与完全更新相当,运行时间约为完全更新的28%,降低了预测不稳定性,并且行为类似于具有少量基于证据的例外的固定调度。

英文摘要

Forecasting systems are commonly refreshed at every review period, and that refresh usually bundles two distinct operations: estimating parameters and selecting the model form. Recent evidence suggests the second operation is often unnecessary, since intermediate updating strategies can hold forecast accuracy roughly fixed while cutting computational cost and forecast instability. This technical note takes up the complementary question. Once a system has adopted a reduced-update policy, when should it interrupt that policy and re-specify the model form? We define specification debt as the evidence accumulated against the deployed model form, and we use it to build a cost-sensitive trigger for re-specification. In a closed discrete model space the trigger reduces to a threshold on the negative log posterior probability of the deployed specification. In open production settings the same decision rule can be run with predictive score gaps, stacking weights, or calibrated monitoring diagnostics. Fixed update frequencies turn out to be a special case of the rule, recovered when evidence against the deployed form accumulates at a constant rate. We illustrate the idea on 500 monthly M4 series, comparing full updating, fixed model-form update frequencies, parameter-only updating, and capped adaptive score-triggered updating, and within the finite ETS grid we also compute information-criterion analogues of specification debt from AIC and BIC weights over the candidate forms. In that illustration the best capped adaptive policy is comparable to full updating in accuracy, runs in about 28 percent of full-update computational time, lowers forecast instability, and behaves like a fixed schedule with a small number of evidence-based exceptions.

2606.06571 2026-06-08 stat.AP 新提交

Counting the uncounted: How many were killed in Guatemala, 1978-1995?

计数未计数者:1978-1995年危地马拉有多少人被杀害?

Nils Lid Hjort

AI总结 针对多项分布中零单元格计数缺失的问题,提出参数化推断方法估计未知数量,并应用于估算危地马拉种族灭绝期间(1978-1995年)的死亡人数。

Comments 10 pages, 3 figures. Invited chapter, for invited talk, at the 40th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Oslo, June 28 to July 3, 2026; will be published in Conference Proceedings, in different layout etc

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AI中文摘要

在各种应用领域中,存在一个特定的“零单元格”,在多项分布设置中,其他单元格有观测记录,但无法计数零单元格的发生次数。我开发了推断理论,通过参数化建模,在可获得其他单元格计数的情况下,评估此类未知数量,即计数未计数者。这些方法用于估算危地马拉种族灭绝时期(1978-1995年)的死亡人数。有三份精心整理的遇害者名单,其信息可映射到一个包含$2^3=8$个单元格的维恩图。对七个观测单元格求和,可识别出$R=47,803$名遇害者,但$N_{0,0,0}$有多大,进而$N=N_{0,0,0}+R$是多少?

英文摘要

In various application domains, there is a certain `null cell', inside a multinomial setup, where observations are recorded for the other cells, but where one cannot count the number of occurrences for the null cell. I develop inference theory for assessing such unknown numbers, counting the uncounted, in situations where counts are available for the other cells, via parametric modelling. The methods are used to estimate the number of persons killed in Guatemala during the Genocidio guatemalteco years 1978--1995. There are three carefully curated lists of killed people, where the information can be mapped to a Venn diagram with $2^3=8$ cells. Summing over the seven observed cells, $R=\hbox{47,803}$ killed individuals can be identified, but how big is $N_{0,0,0}$, and hence $N=N_{0,0,0}+R$?

2606.07445 2026-06-08 q-fin.MF cs.GT econ.TH q-fin.PR 新提交

Bubbles vs. Baselines: Token Valuation and Institutional Capital in PoS Networks under EIP-1559

泡沫 vs. 基线:EIP-1559下PoS网络中的代币估值与机构资本

Mikhail Perepelitsa

AI总结 本文构建了一个开放经济宏观均衡模型,分析EIP-1559下PoS网络中机构投资者与零售消费者的策略互动,揭示代币估值锚定于网络采用率的基本面,而机构超额收益源于零售消费者交易效用的杠杆提取。

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AI中文摘要

本文提出了一个开放经济宏观均衡模型,用于描述具有费用销毁机制(EIP-1559)的权益证明(PoS)网络,该模型形式化了凯利优化理性机构投资者与效用驱动零售消费者之间的策略互动。我们分析了两种行为模式下的网络动态。在无界积累模型中,消费者纯粹积累代币,产生独家买方压力,与机构投资组合再平衡相互作用,助长不断扩大的投机泡沫,并为投资者带来复合超额收益。相反,在效用消费模型中,消费者动态买卖代币,以平衡加密财富与现实世界的法币消费。在此框架内,我们推导出ETH的显式稳态均衡价格,展示了代币估值如何锚定于稳定的基本基线,该基线直接随网络采用率变化,同时完全消除机构收益溢价。我们的数值模拟表明,虽然外生传统金融(TradFi)冲击通过投资组合再平衡传播,导致代币价格高波动,但网络通胀保持高度稳定。此外,我们证明网络安全性通过反周期消费者行为免受机构垄断的影响。我们的发现表明,PoS生态系统中机构超额财富的创造并非源于质押协议本身,而是严格由零售消费者对交易效用的持续需求的杠杆提取驱动。

英文摘要

This paper presents an open-economy macroeconomic equilibrium model for Proof-of-Stake (PoS) networks with fee-burn mechanics (EIP-1559) that formalizes the strategic interplay between a Kelly-optimizing rational institutional investor and a utility-driven retail consumer. We analyze network dynamics across two behavioral regimes. In The Unbounded Accumulation Model, the consumer purely accumulates tokens, creating an exclusive buy-side pressure that interacts with institutional portfolio rebalancing to fuel an ever-expanding speculative bubble and generate compounding excess returns for investors. Conversely, in The Utility-Consumption Model, the consumer dynamically buys and sells tokens to balance crypto wealth against real-world fiat consumption. Within this framework, we derive an explicit steady-state equilibrium price for ETH, demonstrating how token valuation anchors to a stable fundamental baseline that scales directly with network adoption while completely dissolving the institutional yield premium. Our numerical simulations show that while exogenous traditional finance (TradFi) shocks propagate through portfolio rebalancing to drive high token price volatility, network inflation remains highly stable. Furthermore, we prove that network security is insulated from institutional monopoly by counter-cyclical consumer behavior. Our findings reveal that institutional excess wealth creation in PoS ecosystems is not native to the staking protocol itself, but is strictly driven by the leveraged extraction of the retail consumer's continuous demand for transactional utility.

2606.07109 2026-06-08 econ.GN q-fin.EC 新提交

Museums as Policy Tools: The Behavioral Impact of Cultural Experiences

博物馆作为政策工具:文化体验的行为影响

Paolo Pin, Roberto Rozzi, Alessandro Stringhi

AI总结 通过田野实验发现,参观强调历史关怀功能的博物馆后,游客对难民非政府组织的捐赠增加,表明主题性博物馆体验可提升慈善行为。

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AI中文摘要

当博物馆的内容经过精心策划时,它们可以充当政策工具。我们在锡耶纳的圣玛丽亚德拉斯卡拉博物馆设计了一个框架田野实验,利用该遗址历史上提供护理和庇护的角色。随机分配到强调这一功能的导览的游客,后来比那些遵循标准艺术路线的游客向支持难民的非政府组织捐赠更多,且效果集中在女性参与者中。这些结果表明,主题针对性的博物馆体验可以显著提升对弱势群体的慈善行为,凸显了文化机构在行为公共政策中未被充分利用的潜力。

英文摘要

Museums can serve as policy tools when their content is purposefully curated. We designed a framed field experiment at the Santa Maria della Scala museum in Siena that leveraged the site's historical role offering care and hospitality.Student visitors randomly assigned to a tour emphasizing this function later donated more to an NGO supporting refugee than those who followed a standard artistic itinerary, with effects concentrated among female participants. These results show that thematically targeted museum experiences can measurably boost charitable behavior toward vulnerable groups, underscoring the untapped potential of cultural institutions in behavioral public policy.

2606.07059 2026-06-08 q-fin.TR 新提交

Diffusive in plain sight: An inconspicuous law of market impact

扩散中的隐形:一个不显眼的市场冲击定律

Julius F. Bonart

AI总结 通过将冲击分解为实际收益与反事实收益之差,并要求两者均为扩散过程,推导出限制个体参与者冲击规模的恒等式,该恒等式在信息中性条件下导出平方根定律,在强信息耦合下过渡到线性冲击,与实证一致。

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AI中文摘要

将冲击分解为实际收益与反事实收益之差,并要求两者均为扩散过程,得到一个恒等式,该恒等式限制了个体参与者层面可接受的冲击规模。这一约束在信息中性条件下隐含平方根定律,并在强信息耦合下过渡到线性冲击,与实证观察一致。在弱耦合条件下,累积市场冲击本身是扩散的——这是许多传播子和潜在流动性模型未能满足的诊断标准。

英文摘要

Decomposing impact as the difference between realized and counterfactual returns and requiring both to be diffusive yields an identity that restricts admissible impact scaling at the level of individual participants. This constraint implies the square-root law in the information-neutral regime and a crossover to linear impact under strong informational coupling, consistent with empirical observations. In the weak-coupling regime, cumulative market impact is itself diffusive -- a diagnostic that many propagator and latent liquidity models fail to satisfy.

2606.06737 2026-06-08 q-fin.MF 新提交

Fast-excursion limit of the Heston model

Heston模型的快-游走极限

Ryan McCrickerd

AI总结 本文提出Heston模型在Mechkov快回复极限下的新快游走模型,该模型通过价格区间瞬时游走影响障碍期权敲出概率,并引入区间值过程与随机闭集选择理论,模拟显示障碍期权敲出概率显著增加。

Comments 28 pages, 7 figures

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AI中文摘要

本文介绍了一种来自金融价格过程的非常规模型,该模型源于经典Heston模型在Mechkov快回复极限下的演化。这种新的快游走Heston模型在每个时刻通过一个价格区间表现出瞬时(即快速)游走,这些游走对普通期权不可见,但对敲出概率和连续监测的奇异期权至关重要。理论上,该模型提供了一个罕见的随机波动率模型非退化极限的例子,该极限避开了Skorokhod拓扑。这引导我们得到一类区间值过程,它们作为次生Levy过程的提升存在,通过随机闭集理论中的选择概念。在实际方面,我们展示了如何使用价格-时间参数表示模拟该模型,并利用专门构建的经典Heston模拟方案来可视化收敛。最后,我们演示了该模型如何显著提高障碍期权的敲出概率(对于一个月期EURUSD期权约为10%),因为考虑了游走风险。

英文摘要

This article introduces an unconventional model for price processes in finance that emerges from the classical Heston model under Mechkov's fast-reversion limit. This new fast-excursion Heston model exhibits instantaneous (i.e. fast) excursions through an interval of prices at each time, which are invisible to vanilla options but critical for hitting probabilities and continuously monitored exotics. Theoretically, the model provides a rare example of a non-degenerate limit of stochastic volatility models that escapes the Skorokhod topologies. This leads us to a class of interval-valued processes which exist as lifts of subordinated Levy processes, through the concept of selections in the theory of random closed sets. On the practical side, we show how the model can be simulated using price-time parametric representations, and utilise a purpose-built classical Heston simulation scheme in order to visualise convergence. Finally we demonstrate how this model raises hitting probabilities for barrier options considerably (of order 10% for one-month EURUSD options), due to taking excursion risk into account.

2606.06652 2026-06-08 econ.GN cs.CE cs.IT eess.SP math.IT q-fin.EC 新提交

Probabilistic Risk Sensitivity and Loss Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory

累积前景理论中的概率风险敏感性和损失厌恶

Symeon Vaidanis, Marios Kountouris

AI总结 提出二元赌博框架,定义概率风险敏感性指标为概率阈值比,用于分析累积前景理论中的接受和偏好阈值,并与效用溢价、概率溢价及Arrow-Pratt曲率度量进行比较。

Comments This paper has been submitted for publication

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AI中文摘要

本文开发了一个二元赌博框架,用于表征累积前景理论(CPT)中的风险敏感性和损失厌恶。所提出的概率风险敏感性度量被定义为一个概率阈值比,该比率决定了涉及确定结果与二元赌博或两个二元赌博的选择问题中的接受阈值和偏好阈值。我们展示了如何在该框架中恢复对称和非对称赌博厌恶的标准概念,并将所得的基于阈值的条件与效用溢价、概率溢价和Arrow-Pratt曲率度量进行比较。分析阐明了这些准则何时一致、何时分歧,特别是在递增厌恶条件、概率分布不等的二元赌博以及涉及概率权重函数的情形中。我们还识别了当使用CPT效用函数表示参考点处的损失厌恶时出现的技术限制。所得框架提供了直接与概率阈值相关的风险敏感性的决策理论解释,并补充了现有的基于溢价的方法。

英文摘要

This paper develops a binary-gamble framework for characterizing risk sensitivity and loss aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). The proposed probabilistic risk-sensitivity metric is defined as a probability-threshold ratio that determines acceptance and preference thresholds in choice problems involving either a certain outcome and a binary gamble or two binary gambles. We show how standard notions of symmetric and non-symmetric bet aversion can be recovered within this framework, and we compare the resulting threshold-based conditions with utility premia, probability premia, and Arrow--Pratt curvature measures. The analysis clarifies when these criteria coincide and when they diverge, particularly for increasing aversion conditions, binary gambles with unequal probability distributions, and settings involving probability weighting functions. We also identify technical restrictions that arise when CPT-utility functions are used to represent loss aversion at the reference point. The resulting framework provides a decision-theoretic interpretation of risk sensitivity that is directly tied to probability thresholds and complements existing premium-based approaches.

2606.07372 2026-06-08 q-bio.PE math.DS 新提交

Nullclines, Subnullclines and the Asymptotic and Transient Attractors in Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics

生态进化动力学中的零线、子零线以及渐近和瞬态吸引子

Krzysztof Argasinski, Manjyot Singh Bedi, Mark Broom

AI总结 本文通过分析经典鹰鸽博弈的生态进化动力学,发现频率和密度零线交点决定的稳定与不稳定平衡点由异宿轨道连接,并引入子零线概念,进而考虑环境季节性导致复杂循环行为,子零线作为扰动传播的屏障。

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AI中文摘要

在人口统计学框架中,死亡率支付函数描述交互的成本,而生育率支付函数描述其回报。因此,虽然死亡率成本取决于对手的策略,但生育率奖励可能受到密度依赖的幼体补充存活率的影响。这激发了对经典鹰鸽博弈的生态进化动力学的分析。结果表明,由频率和密度零线的交点决定的稳定和不稳定平衡点通过异宿轨道连接,这些轨道吸引附近的轨迹。由此产生的轨迹束导致发现了所谓的子零线(位于频率和密度零线之间的流形),然后它们收敛到稳定不动点。然后通过添加环境季节性(周期性背景死亡率)作为外部因素来扩展初始孤立系统。这导致复杂的循环行为,子零线作为扰动传播的屏障(弹性/抵抗阈值)。因此,从某种意义上说,本文完成并扩展了先前关于具有人口统计支付的博弈的生态进化动力学的工作。

英文摘要

In the demographic framework, mortality payoff function describes the cost of an interaction and fertility payoff function describes its reward. So while mortality cost depends on opponent's strategy, fertility reward can be affected by the density-dependent juvenile recruitment survival. This motivates an analysis of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of the classical Hawk-Dove game. It is shown that the stable and unstable equilibria (determined by the intersections of frequency and density nullclines) are connected by heteroclinic orbits, which attract nearby trajectories. The resulting bundle of trajectories leads to the discovery of the so-called subnullcines (manifolds placed between frequency and density nullcline) before they converge to the stable rest point. The initial isolated system is then extended by adding environmental seasonality (periodic background mortality), which acts as an external factor. This leads to complex cycling behavior and the subnullclines act as barriers to the propagation of the perturbation (resilience/resistance threshold). Thus, in a way, this paper completes, yet extends, previous works on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of games with demographic payoffs.

2606.07336 2026-06-08 q-bio.NC 新提交

Fixed point compositionality via low-rank gluing rules in inhibition-dominated threshold-linear networks

抑制主导阈值线性网络中基于低秩粘合规则的定点组合性

Juliana Londono Alvarez

AI总结 本文研究抑制主导阈值线性网络中结构模块性如何支持功能组合性,通过引入低秩粘合规则,证明全局定点是局部定点的组合,并应用于图网络以扩展定点分解规则。

Comments 39 pages, 18 figures

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AI中文摘要

大脑在相对稳定的结构和有限资源上常规地产生高度灵活和复杂的行为。这种能力的一个关键机制是组合性,它允许大脑有效地将复杂任务分解为更简单、可重用的基元。虽然网络模块性在生物和人工网络中常与组合性相关联,但在非线性网络中这种关系的严格数学表征仍然缺乏。在这项工作中,我们正式研究了结构模块性如何支持抑制主导阈值线性网络(TLNs)中的功能组合性。我们引入了一类新颖的模块化网络组装,称为低秩粘合,其中具有任意内部连接的组件子网络通过特定的低秩耦合连接。我们证明了这些网络的全局定点被限制为其组成模块的局部定点的组合。对于更结构化的子类,称为秩-1粘合,我们提供了完整的表征,确定哪些局部定点的组合产生全局定点。我们将这些结果应用于基于图的网络,将定点分解规则从组合阈值线性网络(CTLNs)扩展到更灵活的广义CTLNs(gCTLNs)家族,从而证明这些结构规则比最初假设的更鲁棒。最后,我们展示了这些粘合规则为工程化组合动力学提供了数学上易处理的配方,使得能够构建具有组合大量可预测吸引子库的网络,这些吸引子可以从更简单的组件基元理解,范围从定点组合到组合极限环。

英文摘要

Brains routinely generate highly flexible and complex behaviors on a relatively stable structure and limited resources. A key mechanism underlying this ability is compositionality, which allows the brain to efficiently decompose complex tasks into simpler, reusable primitives. While network modularity has often been linked to compositionality in biological and artificial networks, a rigorous mathematical characterization of this relationship in nonlinear networks is still lacking. In this work, we formally investigate how structural modularity supports functional compositionality in inhibition-dominated threshold-linear networks (TLNs). We introduce a novel class of modular network assembly called low-rank gluings, where component subnetworks with arbitrary internal connectivity are connected via specific low-rank couplings. We prove that the global fixed points of these networks are constrained to be combinations of the local fixed points of their constituent modules. For a more structured subclass, called rank-1 gluings, we provide a complete characterization that determines which combinations of local fixed points yield global ones. We apply these results to graph-based networks, extending fixed point decomposition rules from combinatorial threshold-linear networks (CTLNs) to the more flexible family of generalized CTLNs (gCTLNs), thereby proving that these structural rules are more robust than initially posited. Finally, we demonstrate that these gluing rules provide a mathematically tractable recipe for engineering compositional dynamics, enabling the construction of networks with a combinatorially large repertoire of predictable attractors that can be understood from simpler component motifs, ranging from compositions of fixed points to compositional limit cycles.