Accurate precipitation nowcasting is vital for disaster mitigation, but deep learning methods face a key trade-off: regression models produce over-smoothed, spectrally decaying predictions that blur convective details and violate turbulence power laws; diffusion models generate realistic yet unanchored hallucinations lacking physical grounding. We propose Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement (SDIR), a deterministic framework that reformulates nowcasting as progressive frequency-decoupled refinement. SDIR first extracts a stable low-frequency synoptic skeleton, then iteratively refines high-frequency textures under physical constraints, eliminating both blurring and hallucinations. It features a dual-path design: the Synoptic Frequency-Guided Former (SFG-Former) with Scale-Adaptive Transformers for global structure, and the Fourier Residual Refiner (FR-Refiner) with Scale-Conditioned Fourier Neural Operators for fine residuals. A Physically Consistent Power Spectral Density (PCPSD) loss with dynamic masking enforces a turbulence-consistent spectral distribution. Experiments on three benchmarks show SDIR significantly outperforms SOTA methods in spatial accuracy while achieving spectral fidelity competitive with diffusion-based methods, enabling reliable high-resolution operational nowcasting. Code link: https://github.com/RuntimeWarning/SDIR.

Despite the success of audio-visual large-language models (LLMs), they can produce plausible but ungrounded outputs, termed hallucination. Existing benchmarks focus on environmental sounds (e.g., dog barking) to indicate event occurrence. In contrast, human speech carries fundamentally different, rich semantics and temporal structures, yet it remains unexplored whether current models can accurately align speech content with corresponding visual signals. In this work, we show that speech content can induce hallucinations in audio-visual LLMs. To systematically study this, we introduce SVHalluc, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating speech-vision hallucination in audio-visual LLMs. Our benchmark diagnoses speech-vision hallucinations from two critical and complementary aspects: semantic and temporal. Experimental results demonstrate that state-of-the-art open-source audio-visual LLMs struggle with aligning speech content with corresponding visual signals, with a near-random accuracy on multiple tasks. In contrast, Gemini 2.5 Pro significantly outperforms the open-source models. Our analysis suggests that their failures stem from limited ability in cross-modality understanding, despite strong performance in single-modality perception. Our work uncovers a new and fundamental limitation of current audio-visual LLMs and highlights the need for speech-grounded video comprehension. Project page: https://chenshuang-zhang.github.io/projects/svhalluc/.

We identify and resolve a previously unreported failure mode in TensoRF when applied to X-ray attenuation fields: the default density shift of -10, originally introduced for RGB scene reconstruction, suppresses density gradients and prevents sparse-view medical reconstruction regardless of learning rate or regularization strategy. Setting the density shift to zero restores gradient flow and enables stable volumetric reconstruction of pulmonary nodules from only three orthogonal X-ray projections. Building on this, we propose AReT, an anatomy-regularized tensorial radiance field framework for lung nodule reconstruction using coronal, sagittal, and axial projections from the LIDC-IDRI dataset (19 patients, radiologist-annotated nodules). Unlike existing NeRF approaches requiring dense multi-view acquisition, AReT is designed for sparse-view thoracic imaging and incorporates chest-anatomy-aware regularization combining L1 sparsity and total variation smoothness. A systematic comparison across 11 reconstruction strategies shows anatomy-aware regularization consistently outperforms generative-prior-guided approaches. Evaluated against radiologist consensus segmentations, AReT achieves Pearson r=0.983 (p<0.0001) for clinically actionable nodules >=10 mm (n=14), median absolute volumetric error of 11.4%, near-zero systematic bias of -77.3 mm^3, and 8.4x improvement over spherical volume approximation.

This paper studies whether audio, images, and video can share a common wavelet token schema rather than relying on separate modality-specific latent grids. It introduces a preliminary continuous-token model built around a one-level Haar DWT/IDWT frontend, a shared coefficient-token layout, optional structural metadata, lightweight modality value adapters, and a shared token-wise encoder-decoder trunk. On Speech Commands, EuroSAT RGB, and DAVIS 2017 data, a dense shared model reaches 39.92 dB audio, 29.37 dB image, and 23.93 dB video PSNR. A matched-rate sweep under continuous latent scalar budgets indicates that the visual gains are not explained solely by latent capacity, while also showing that additive metadata embeddings are not a universal source of improvement. Finally, fixed-rate energy selection provides a strong non-parametric baseline: energy_global improves average PSNR over uniform selection by 16.73 dB for audio, 16.90 dB for images, and 15.86 dB for video under compressed keep ratios. Masked sparse training reaches 34.45 dB video PSNR with 50% of dense tokens. The results support a unified wavelet token schema and sparse token interface, while stopping short of establishing a universal discrete vocabulary.

Few-shot prompting provides an effective way to adapt auditory large language models to low-resource tasks such as children's speech recognition. However, most auditory large language models are not explicitly trained to perform inference in this demonstration-conditioned format, limiting the extent to which they can benefit from few-shot prompting. To address this limitation, we introduce Few-Shot Aware GRPO (FSA-GRPO), an RL-based post-training recipe that uses a specially designed reward to encourage the model to leverage few-shot demonstrations, thereby strengthening its few-shot adaptation ability. Notably, training with only high-resource adult ASR data improves the model's general few-shot adaptation ability, yielding gains not only in children's speech recognition but also in speech translation and audio understanding. We further study data selection and auxiliary reward weighting to identify an effective training recipe. Our experiments show that when in-domain data are unavailable or cannot be used for training, FSA-GRPO is more effective than direct tuning on related out-of-domain data.

Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal decision problem under the mentioned signal losses. Given a randomized experiment and an ambiguity set for privacy-induced degradation, the framework projects the observation-compatible fiber of clean/unfiltered experimental worlds onto the incrementality functional and returns certified, rejected, and unresolved decisions. The main result gives a sharp decision frontier. Reports outside the frontier support uniformly valid certification or rejection, whereas reports inside it contain too little information for any method to uniformly distinguish above-threshold incrementality from non-incrementality. Supporting results give finite-sample certification, sample-complexity guarantees, a minimax lower bound showing that signal loss reduces effective information, and a reporting-granularity tradeoff. On 2.0M Criteo Uplift rows and the 64K-row Hillstrom email experiment, clean conversion lift is positive in both datasets, with lifts 0.00112 and 0.00495, respectively. Population certification survives mild degradation in Criteo and severe degradation in Hillstrom, while all considered finite-sample stress settings in both datasets remain unresolved after simultaneous uncertainty and reporting noise are included. Overall, the research contributes a decision-theoretic layer for privacy-aware incrementality measurement whose output is the strongest causal-claim justified by degraded ads signals.

We develop a quantitative approximation framework for diffusion distillation, viewing few-step sampling as error propagation under compositions of learned flow maps. Focusing on trajectory distillation for the probability-flow ODE, we show that local approximation errors can be strongly amplified in low-noise multimodal regimes, where the underlying dynamics become stiff. In an analytically tractable Gaussian-mixture Ornstein--Uhlenbeck setting, we separate two core difficulties: approximating the time-dependent score field and controlling the dynamical amplification governed by the time-integrated Jacobian bound of the probability-flow ODE. On the approximation side, we prove constructive L^p(p_t) guarantees showing that ReLU--ReQU networks approximate the Gaussian-mixture score uniformly over time, with depth and width scaling polylogarithmically in the target accuracy and explicitly with the mixture geometry. On the stability side, we derive an explicit bound L(t) for the spatial Lipschitz constant of the probability-flow velocity and convert it into a flow map stability estimate governed by \int_s^t L(u)\,du, making late-time amplification in stiff regimes computable. Building on these estimates, we prove that deep residual compositions efficiently approximate the long-horizon transport, with global error controlled by the stability amplification factor, and identify a Lipschitz-mismatch regime in which one-step distillation is structurally unfavorable. The resulting theory yields a stability-balanced non-uniform time grid obtained by uniform partitioning in the cumulative stability coordinate. Experiments support the prediction and reduce end-to-end relative MSE by up to 51.9\% with 8 segments compared with uniform grids.

Resource-constrained pricing controllers can make fixed-price inference impossible: the controller's resource state may remove the target price neighborhood from the feasible set, even when every realized action has a known positive density. We formalize this support-exclusion failure through a local non-identification result and a realized information clock. We then design a target-aware pricing controller that certifies feasible target bands and logs continuous local densities. Localized debiasing gives studentized intervals whose width is governed by this clock. The resulting regret--information accounting, stated up to pilot re-solving error, shows that cheap exploration can be insufficient for inference: polynomial target mass gives polynomial rates, while a pure $1/t$ target branch does not yield shrinking fixed-target intervals without additional local movement. Experiments show calibration in certified bands and diagnostic abstention when the resource state collapses target support.

Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits. Recent work has explored e-value formulations for conformal inference, yet a direct connection between p- and e-value formulations in CP has been missing, especially regarding their statistical efficiency. We first identify limitations of classical p-to-e calibrators in the CP setting, showing that they are not set-preserving and can lead to overly conservative prediction sets. To address this, we propose a novel P2E calibrator that converts conformal p-values into e-values without altering the prediction set induced by the original conformal p-value. We establish both theoretically and empirically that our calibrator can yield significant efficiency gains over existing p-to-e calibrators. This e-value formulation enables principled use of recent advances in e-value merging and randomization, where we demonstrate its impact in two applications: cross-conformal prediction (CCP), whose variants typically provide only approximate $1-2α$ coverage, and conformal aggregation (CA). In both cases, our e-value-based methods satisfy the desired $1-α$ coverage guarantee while improving efficiency over standard baselines. More broadly, our approach expands the flexibility of CP and opens new directions for efficient, distribution-free uncertainty quantification.

This work proposes a novel solution to predict pulsar timing residuals with limited data, addressing the critical challenge of data scarcity across spin-frequency subgroups of millisecond pulsars in PTA datasets. The proposed solution applies a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network optimized using the model-agnostic meta-learning algorithm, enabling rapid adaptation to new frequency domain by fine-tuning the LSTM network with only a few-shot of ground truth timing residuals. Particle swarm optimization algorithm is also used for automatic hyperparameter optimization, leading to improved prediction accuracy. Our solution, evaluated on the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), demonstrates robust generalization with accurate predictions in three metrics across high-frequency test frequency domains, while requiring only 10% of the timing residuals from these domains for model fine-tuning. Furthermore, our lightweight structure only costs 16.86 MB CPU memory and 18 milliseconds for single-step residual prediction. All these characteristics make our solution highly suitable for real-world applications, where effective and real-time predictions of pulsar timing residuals are essential-particularly in resource-constrained environments with limited computational power, memory, or energy availability.

While principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental tool for dimensionality reduction, its dense representations make it ill-suited for high-dimensional data. Existing methods address this by promoting sparsity through explicit $\ell_1$-penalties, but these are not obvious to tune due to the unsupervised nature of the task. In contrast, we propose Adversarial PCA (AdvPCA), which leverages robust optimization to achieve sparsity by optimizing the reconstruction objective against bounded, worst-case latent space perturbations. We show that this formulation admits a closed-form reduction, leading to a practical iterative algorithm that alternates between adversarial linear regression-style updates for the sparse encoder and orthogonal updates for the decoder. By theoretically characterizing the solution, we derive a data-adaptive parameterization that allows the algorithm to perform effectively out of the box. We validate these claims through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world genomics data.

Many systems used in real-world environments require adding new categories and incorporating new information without forgetting what was previously learnt by the classification model. This is known as class-incremental continual learning, and in the case of multivariate time-series, is further complicated by the temporal structure of the data. In this paper, we present a novel approach for performing class incremental continual learning for the classification of multivariate time series data based upon the construction of a dual-stream feature extraction pipeline (using both deep temporal embedding features generated via a pre-trained frozen foundation model and application of statistical features). Evaluated on five benchmark datasets, the proposed system achieves competitive average accuracy across all datasets while maintaining low forgetting rates across all experimental configurations.

Concepts of calibration formalize the compatibility between probabilistic predictions and the respective outcomes. In a nutshell, the outcomes ought to be indistinguishable from random draws from the predictive distributions. In this paper, we review, extend, and bridge notions of calibration that have been proposed for classification and regression tasks. Particular emphasis is given to hierarchical relations between the various notions, as they apply to general real-valued data, continuous outcomes, count data, nominal classes, and binary outcomes. To highlight a number of contributions, we introduce the notion of modal calibration for nominal outcomes, we distinguish full, partial, and average calibration in this setting, and we show that double probability integral transform (PIT) calibration is logically independent of previously proposed concepts of calibration for discrete outcomes. Furthermore, we generalize extant results on concepts of calibration that are expressed in terms of properties or functionals of the predictive distributions, such as means, quantiles, or event probabilities. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concepts and their hierarchical relations in worked examples, and we provide algorithmic tools that support the construction of instructive examples and counterexamples.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has become a widely used mechanism for eliciting multi-step reasoning in large language models by generating intermediate reasoning steps at inference time. Yet the scaling behavior of generalization with CoT depth remains poorly understood. To address this question, we study a theoretically solvable model of CoT for in-context weight prediction in linear regression, where test-time reasoning is represented as an iterative refinement of the weight-parameter estimate. Using tools from random matrix theory under high-dimensional asymptotics, we derive an exact formula for the generalization error as a function of reasoning depth, pretraining data amount, and context length. Our analysis reveals a sharp phase transition separating exponential and polynomial improvement, saturation, and overthinking, and characterizes how the optimal reasoning depth scales. We further show that deeper reasoning is most effective with sufficiently rich pretraining and in-context information, whereas limited pretraining or context makes longer reasoning prone to error amplification or saturation. We also validate these predictions through experiments on fully learned linear attention and softmax attention models. Our results provide a unified theoretical account of how test-time CoT depth affects generalization.

Gradient observations can substantially improve Gaussian process (GP) surrogates, particularly in high-dimensional settings where function evaluations are expensive. However, exact inference with $n$ function values and $n$ full gradients in $d$ dimensions scales cubically in the joint state size, imposing an intractable $\mathcal{O}(n^3 d^3)$ computational bottleneck. We introduce TERA, a highly scalable derivative GP method based on target-specific exact gradient reduction. We prove that for stationary kernels, the gradient components orthogonal to the directions connecting the target and conditioning points are conditionally independent of the target function value; consequently, the exact conditional density is fully characterized by at most $m^2$ directional derivatives once a conditioning set of size $m$ is specified. By using these reduced, dimension-free conditionals as local factors in a Vecchia approximation, TERA effectively decouples $n$ and $d$ from the dense matrix inversion. This reduces the per-target evaluation cost to $\mathcal{O}(dm^2 + m^6)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(dm^2 + m^4)$ memory, leaving the underlying derivative GP model mathematically unchanged. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that TERA achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while operating orders of magnitude faster than standard derivative GPs. Crucially, both computation time and peak GPU memory remain essentially flat with respect to $d$, enabling highly scalable inference in high-dimensional spaces.

Gradient boosted decision trees require a stopping rule to avoid overfitting. The standard rule monitors a validation loss and stops if the loss fails to improve for a fixed patience period. However, the patience parameter has no interpretable scale and validation losses can be noisy or implicitly defined by a user-specified gradient. We propose ScoreStop, a gradient-based early-stopping rule that casts the stopping decision at each iteration as a test of the null hypothesis that the current predictor is the population risk minimizer. We use a functional score test, computed on validation data, with a statistic that is scale-invariant in the update direction, with a known asymptotic distribution under the null. Because our test uses gradients rather than loss values, the same construction applies to implicit losses such as LambdaRank, and data-dependent losses such as Cox regression via influence functions. In synthetic experiments and real-data benchmarks, we show that ScoreStop is competitive with loss-based methods.

Latent state-space models are widely used to study partially observed dynamical systems, yet most formulations assume that process variability is independent of latent-state position. In many biological, behavioral, and physiological systems, however, variability may depend systematically on the underlying dynamical state, producing structured stochasticity that is not captured by constant-variance models. We introduce a state-coupled stochastic volatility framework in which latent process variance depends on displacement from a latent equilibrium. To estimate this relationship under partial observation, we develop a particle expectation-maximization procedure combining bootstrap particle filtering and backward trajectory smoothing. The model includes a coupling parameter, $γ$, that quantifies the strength of association between latent-state position and process variability. A large-scale simulation benchmark evaluated recovery and detection performance across varying coupling strengths, observation noise levels, trajectory lengths, and persistence regimes. The proposed framework consistently reduced recovery bias relative to an observed-state heteroskedastic proxy, with the largest improvements occurring under strong coupling. Recovery performance improved with increasing latent persistence, while detection performance remained competitive across a broad range of conditions and became increasingly advantageous as observation noise increased. Taken together, the results demonstrate that state-coupled volatility can be identified and estimated under partial observation when latent-state structure is explicitly modeled. The framework provides a practical methodological foundation for studying state-dependent variability and evaluating whether structured stochasticity contributes information about system dynamics beyond that contained in mean-state trajectories alone.

Periodic target updates in Q-learning and soft target updates in actor-critic methods are empirically well established stabilization mechanisms, but their precise theoretical explanation is still incomplete. This paper gives a rigorous and exact analysis of these mechanisms for Q-learning with linear function approximation (linear Q-learning) using the exact switched linear system (SLS) dynamics induced by the Bellman maximum and the joint spectral radius (JSR) of the resulting switching matrix families. Although linear Q-learning can fail to converge in general, we prove that, under explicit spectral and step-size conditions, periodic hard target updates and soft target updates can guarantee convergence to the exact projected Q-Bellman solution. The main analysis is carried out for deterministic linear Q-learning, where the target-update mechanism is most transparent. Once the corresponding JSR certificate is established for the mean recursion, the stochastic reinforcement-learning setting can be treated by replacing deterministic modes with sampled stochastic modes and adding the corresponding stochastic-noise analysis.

Modern Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, especially large language models (LLMs), are increasingly used to generate scientific hypotheses and mechanistic explanations from observational data. This position paper argues that in the high-dimensional proxy regimes where modern ML excels, mechanistic learning is generically underdetermined: many incompatible mechanisms induce essentially the same observational relationships on the support of the data, so predictive success and coherent explanations are insufficient evidence of mechanism discovery. This underdetermination becomes uniquely hazardous with large language models (LLMs), which tend to collapse large equivalence classes of explanations into a single fluent narrative. This paper proposes concrete standards for ``mechanistic ML,'' and argues these norms are necessary if LLM-centered workflows are to support science rather than merely simulate it.

Urban nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$) is a key indicator of combustion-related air pollution and exhibits strong spatial and temporal variability in cities. This study presents a satellite-based framework for tracking urban $NO_2$ pollution using tropospheric column observations from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI over Guayas Province, Ecuador. Rather than estimating surface concentrations, the methodology emphasizes robust distributional metrics, including the median and upper-tail percentiles ($P_{90}$, $P_{95}$, and $P_{99}$), to characterize background conditions and localized pollution extremes at the canton scale. Multi-year satellite observations are aggregated annually and analyzed using unsupervised K-means clustering to identify characteristic pollution regimes without predefined thresholds. Results show that highly urbanized cantons consistently exhibit elevated extreme $NO_2$ values and greater variability, while less urbanized areas display lower and more homogeneous patterns. The proposed approach provides an interpretable and scalable tool for urban air-quality assessment in data-scarce regions using satellite observations alone. The implementation is publicly available on GitHub https://hvelesaca.github.io/sentinel-5P-clustering/.

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.

Multi-view video recordings are increasingly used to capture the 3D movements of animals in experimental settings, yet extracting rich 3D representations from these recordings remains challenging. Supervised pose estimation requires extensive manual annotation, while general-purpose 3D reconstruction models trained on generic scene datasets fail on the specialized imagery and sparse-view setting of laboratory experiments. We address these limitations with BEAST3D, a self-supervised pretraining framework that learns 3D visual representations from unlabeled, calibrated multi-view video. BEAST3D uses a vision transformer to predict 3D Gaussian splats that reconstruct held-out views through differentiable rendering, while simultaneously segmenting the animal from the background. BEAST3D reconstructs 3D structure with as few as four views by conditioning directly on known camera parameters--unlike general-purpose models, which must estimate camera geometry from dense overlapping viewpoints that are seldom available in lab settings. Through comprehensive evaluation across four species, we demonstrate that BEAST3D produces rich, viewpoint-invariant features that transfer effectively to three downstream tasks: novel view synthesis, which validates the quality of the learned 3D representations; multi-view pose estimation, which provides the sparse keypoint trajectories widely used in behavioral analysis; and neural encoding, which relates 3D behavioral features to simultaneously recorded neural activity. BEAST3D thus establishes a versatile framework for behavioral analysis that leverages 3D structure in modern multi-view laboratory recordings.

Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) are essential for many biological processes. However, existing PPI prediction approaches suffer from two major limitations: they overlook the hierarchical organization of proteins, particularly meso-scale motifs that critically regulate PPIs, and fail to effectively integrate sequence, structure, and function modalities. To address these limitations, we propose MMM-PPI, a Hierarchical Motif-based Multi-Modal protein Encoder for PPI Prediction that constructs PPI embeddings in a bottom-up multi-modal manner across three scales. At the micro-scale, we encode three modal residue features; at the meso-scale, a novel multimodal motif encoder aggregates residues into spatially-informed motif embeddings; at the macro-scale, a multimodal protein encoder integrates motifs into protein embeddings by jointly modeling motif importance and inter-modal correlations. The pre-trained encoder can be used off-the-shelf for large-scale PPI prediction. Extensive experiments on multiple PPI datasets show that MMM-PPI outperforms state-of-the-art multi-label PPI prediction models, particularly under challenging data partitions and limited data scenarios. Codes are in https://github.com/yzf-code/MMM-PPI.

AI for scientific discovery is entering an agentic era, where protein-engineering systems are expected to prioritize future wet-lab experiments rather than merely fit static measurements. We introduce TadA-Bench, a million-variant wet-lab replay benchmark from 31 TadA directed-evolution rounds for future-round discovery toward agentic protein engineering. TadA-Bench preserves the campaign chronology and defines a fixed-data replay task: given earlier experimental rounds, models rank variants that appear only in later rounds. It provides aligned DNA, RNA, and protein views, and uses Seq2Graph, a graph-based label-unification pipeline, to reconcile noisy enrichment measurements into consistent cross-round activity labels. Random-split controls show strong interpolation, but future-round ranking and finite-budget candidate selection are much weaker. Controlled analyses suggest that evolutionary coverage is more informative than local data density, positioning TadA-Bench as a reproducible wet-lab replay substrate for future-round discovery toward agentic protein engineering; the data and code are released on Hugging Face and GitHub.

Database vendors recently released AI functions that can be used in filter predicates. As such functions often rely on costly, black-box ML models, they unveil new data management challenges. Concretely, traditional data skipping techniques for integer and string data fail to be applicable to the new filter type. Indeed, there is no known mechanism for pruning non-qualifying row groups, e.g., when reading files from blob storage. In this work, we initiate the study of data skipping techniques for ML filters. We make the case that Parquet's default min-max metadata is enough to enable pruning. To this end, we draw connections to two lines of research: (i) the recently proposed query language for ML models and (ii) neural network verification. Our preliminary results on ReLU architectures show that on tables from TPC-H and TPC-DS, the average pruning effectiveness for filters of selectivity below 0.1% amounts to 27.4%. Finally, inspired by research on spatial joins, we propose an enhanced metadata structure: a size-bounded 2D convex hull that verification tools can make better use of, increasing the pruning effectiveness to 38.31%, while occupying at most 45 bytes per row group and column pair. We observe an end-to-end speedup of 1.07$\times$ over PyTorch in DuckDB.

The ability to train spiking neural networks is essential for modeling biological neural networks as well as for neuromorphic computing. However, for the extensively used leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons, arbitrarily small parameter changes can induce spike (dis)appearances that disrupt subsequent activity, leading to unstable neural representations and permanently silent neurons during exact spike-based gradient descent. Recent work shows that a class of neuron models, which includes the quadratic integrate-and-fire (QIF) neuron, avoids these discontinuities and enables continuous and even smooth spike-based gradient descent. However, it remains unclear whether these advantages translate into practice. Here, we demonstrate that they do so via a controlled comparison between networks of LIF and QIF neurons on the popular Spiking Heidelberg Digits dataset. Specifically, in a first step, we perform a thorough hyperparameter search to optimize both models, revealing a clear performance advantage of QIF neurons. In a second step, we visualize the loss and gradient landscapes. Consistent with their inferior performance, we find that the loss landscapes of LIF neurons, which are discontinuous, appear more fragmented and the related gradients more erratic. An analysis of the landscapes of single samples indicates that these features arise from changes in the temporal order of spikes, which often cause disruptive spike (dis)appearances. Overall, our results advocate replacing LIF neurons with neuron models exhibiting continuous spiking dynamics, such as QIF neurons, for gradient descent training.

Modeling temporal evolution is important to analyzing and reasoning about scientific phenomena, yet most machine learning methods provide deterministic forward predictions that overlook multiple plausible outcomes and rarely support backward reasoning, limiting their usefulness in practical scientific workflows. We present a framework that integrates diffusion-based generative modeling with interactive visual analytics for scientific exploration. We introduce DiffUNet^2, a conditional diffusion model that enables bidirectional, any-to-any generation across time and captures distributions of plausible system evolutions. Built upon the model, our interactive system supports branching timeline exploration, user-guided state editing, and probability-space navigation, enabling scientists to actively explore alternative hypotheses rather than passively observe predictions. We evaluate the model on 5 datasets across different scientific domains to validate its predictive accuracy and probability-space ensemble quality. In collaboration with domain experts, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in supporting practical scientific temporal data analysis workflows. By integrating modeling and visual interaction, our approach enables scientists to interactively explore system dynamics, transforming generative models into tools for hypothesis-driven scientific analysis.

Understanding and anticipating scientific change requires models that distinguish between endogenous consolidation and exogenous diffusion of scientific concepts. Using the quantum computing subtree of concepts in OpenAlex, we construct a temporally resolved concept co-occurrence network and track each concept pair through its upstream citation lineage and downstream diffusion. We train LightGBM models on distributional and diversity-aware features to predict four outcomes: endogenous reinforcement, exogenous diffusion, their ratio, and diffusion entropy. After controlling for overall publication growth of the scientific body, endogenous reinforcement proves largely unpredictable in the primary quantum-computing benchmark. In contrast, exogenous diffusion and entropy are strongly predictable ($R^2$ up to $0.78à) and are driven by upstream heterogeneity, citation breadth, and distributional dispersion, as shown by SHAP analyses; replications on robotics, advanced materials, and neuro implants confirm that exogenous diffusion remains the top-ranked target across fields ($R^2_test \sim 0.60-0.87$), while endogenous predictability rises markedly in neuro implants (R^2_test = 0.83), indicating that the quantum-computing asymmetry does not generalise uniformly. Case studies reveal that sharp entropy increases coincide with the opening of new conceptual frontiers, while entropy collapses signal technological convergence or paradigm displacement. These results demonstrate that conceptual diffusion is governed by stable structural regularities embedded in semantic and citation environments. By identifying early diversity-based signals of cross-domain uptake, the approach provides a scalable foundation for anticipatory scientometrics, technology foresight, and innovation-oriented policy analysis in rapidly evolving research fields.

Disaggregated LLM inference forces the KV cache to traverse the datacenter network before decoding begins, so transfer time enters directly into the Time to First Token (TTFT) budget. Current schedulers route on compute load and prefix-cache locality alone, ignoring the topological distance and dynamic congestion between prefill and decode instances. We close this gap with a thin operator-to-scheduler interface, the network cost oracle, and we prove that ignoring the network term renders cache-aware-only scheduling arbitrarily suboptimal as context length grows. NetKV, the O(|D|) per-request greedy that consumes this oracle, has tier rankings that are provably robust to stale telemetry. On a 64-GPU four-tier fat-tree simulator driven by Mooncake traces, NetKV reduces mean TTFT by up to 21.2% over round-robin and 17.6% over a tuned cache+load-aware scheduler, lifts SLO attainment by up to 20.1 percentage points, and keeps the Time Between Tokens overhead below 0.5 ms in every condition tested, with no changes to the transport, inference engine, or hardware.

Agentic AI coding tools write code with increasing autonomy and in doing so decide when to import a library and when to implement functionality from scratch. These decisions, whether to build functionality from scratch or buy into an external library, hereafter build-versus-buy, carry direct consequences for software security, licensing compliance, performance, and long-term maintainability. Yet no controlled experimental study has examined what governs build-versus-buy decisions in agentic AI coding tools. Configuration mechanisms, i.e., the means by which developers tailor agentic AI coding tool behavior to a project or workflow, are one of the primary means by which practitioners can influence these decisions. However, it is unclear which configuration mechanisms influence build-versus-buy decisions most effectively. We present a pre-registered protocol to study how configuration mechanisms alter build-versus-buy behavior in two popular agentic AI coding tools: Claude Code and OpenAI Codex. We will execute controlled programming tasks drawn from a benchmark of staged projects, each constructed around identifiable build-versus-buy points, and will manipulate the configuration supplied to each tool, ranging from no configuration, through context files with soft preferences and explicit prohibitions, to Skills (instructions that can be autonomously discovered), MCP-enabled library discovery tools, and permission controls, measuring which libraries the tool selects, whether it discloses newly introduced libraries, and whether those disclosures are complete and accurate. Nine pre-registered hypotheses structure the protocol. The resulting benchmark dataset and analysis pipeline will be released as a reusable artifact for evaluating build-versus-buy behavior in agentic AI coding tools.